Gonna be honest, none of this shook out the way I thought it would. It went from making perfect sense to the western mid-majors just being an absolute mess.
When Wazzou and Oregon State started their scheduling agreement with Mountain West, I thought it was a way for the two sides to begin a relationship that would eventually end up with a merger under the Pac-12 name. It made sense because the MWC exit fees were so cost prohibitive and the Pac-12 name can carry a premium at the next round of media negotiations.
I don’t think I understood how much the top half of the MWC wanted to get away from the bottom half.
When the first four MWC teams defected, I thought it was only a matter of time before enough teams defected to dissolve the MWC to avoid the exit fees/poaching penalties and the remaining MWC teams would rebuild with some teams from the FCS and Conference USA. Ultimately, the only additional team that left was Utah State.
Now, instead of one strong western mid-major (and possibly the strongest mid-major), there are two weak western mid-majors (one still incomplete) suing each other and picking up basketball schools with their next rounds of media rights negotiations coming up within the next year.