Here is your State to the Sugar Bowl Cheering Guide for this weekend

[615dawg]

Listed from order of importance

Have to have:
Mississippi State over Tennessee State
Alabama over Arkansas

Would be nice to have a couple of these:
Oregon over Utah
UAB over UTSA
Syracuse over NC State
Virginia over Pittsburgh

Would be nice, but unlikely
UNLV over San Diego State
Illinois over Iowa
Nebraska over Wisconsin

My analysis says that entering the Egg Bowl, we need to be within 10 spots of Ole Miss in order for a victory to move them down and State up enough to pass them. A&M lost to a ranked team and moved down 5 spots. Oklahoma lost to a ranked team and moved down 5 spots. Arkansas beat an unranked LSU and moved up 4 spots. What you are looking for is for a State win to move us very close to Ole Miss where the committee has to say "Oh ****, State just beat Ole Miss, lets reverse that order."

The wildcard in this is going to be Texas A&M. The easy thing to do is hope for Orgeron to have one final stand in Death Valley. Remember, if Alabama and Georgia make the playoff, the top ranked SEC team goes to the Sugar Bowl, whether its #5 or #25. I can't get people in real life to realize this. An 8-4 Auburn went as the #15 team a few years ago in the same scenario we are looking at.

 

[msudawg1200]

Yep. Many people don't understand that the highest ranked SEC team in the CFP rankings after the playoff teams go to the Sugar. Example: if the highest ranked SEC team was #7 then that team goes to the Sugar, and none would be in the CFP. If both Bama and UGA go to the CFP, then the next highest ranked SEC team in the CFP goes. Whether it's #5 or #25.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Yep. Many people don't understand that the highest ranked SEC team in the CFP rankings after the playoff teams go to the Sugar. Example: if the highest ranked SEC team was #7 then that team goes to the Sugar, and none would be in the CFP. If both Bama and UGA go to the CFP, then the next highest ranked SEC team in the CFP goes. Whether it's #5 or #25.

That's true, but the only way it's possible if Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs, which probably requires Alabama to beat Georgia to get to 12-1, which I don't see as very likely.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Repeat after me: Ain't happen'n!

 

[8dog]

Zero chance. They dont even care that Mich St beat Michigan. We cant gain 13 spots on OM with whats left.

 

[Faustdog]

Yeah, we needed to by be higher than 25th this week for any chance of this.

 

[IPMdawg]

I think we get some credit for the nature of the Memphis loss too. When the conference acknowledges the screw up, it basically should be treated as a draw. An 8-3-1 Mississippi State that beat a 9-4 Ole Miss should move ahead. Especially with our nonconference win over NC State compared to their win over Louisville.

 

[G-Dawg]

Yeah, we needed to by be higher than 25th this week for any chance of this.

Think what wins over Memphis, LSU and a FG over Arkansas would have done for our Sugar Bowl chances. I still think Alabama will end up there.

 

[Junction John]

I'd like to add a Vandy win over OM to the "would be nice" category... It may be <10%, but given their history and what I saw in Austin last Saturday, there is still a chance.

 

[rynodawg]

UTSA and Pittsburgh were on the ropes, but not a single one of these games are coming through so far. Probably only going to move up one or two spots, depending on if Oregon comes through. Not sure that’s enough to pass OM unless we just blow them out.

 

[615dawg]

Yep. It wasn’t a great day for our Sugar Bowl hopes. Plus ole miss will move up 2 with Wake and Michigan State losses.

Probably playing for Orlando Thursday night. Unless Vanderbilt wins tonight. Then everything changes.

 

[BigDawg0074]

This committee values their eye tests above all. State will not move above Ole Miss regardless of the Egg Bowl score.

 

[Coast_Dawg]

Safe to say this is officially dead short of miracle Vandy win tonight which is looking more and more unlikely. aTm will likely move up ahead of Wake and MichSt after their performances today. Utah winning will move them higher. UTSA might drop after their game against UAB. Arkansas drops out.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

So now we want UGA to beat Bama to make Bama take it. I’d rather Bama than aTm or Mississippi

 

[Cooterpoot]

I've got a better shot of tripping over my own pecker than we've got at the Sugar Bowl.