That's a tough one to gauge. If you hang a 0 on SELA, it'll be because your offense is sucking and not pulling away most likely. If your offense does its job, then you should be pulling your starters and giving up a scrap TD or two in that one.
I learned my lesson in betting on 30-40 point line type games, because you're usually relying on 2nd and 3rd teamers to do the dirty work in the last quarter.