How much goodwill is Lemonis cashing in this season?...

[thekimmer]

Sorry for the length but I feel I must start with a disclaimer. This is in no way shape or form implying that CCL is, or should be in imminent danger of losing his job nor is it meant to feed a narrative that he has been 'exposed' and is ultimately destined to fail. I am a still a Chris Lemonis fan and strongly believe that he has the drive & ability to get everything corrected and get us back where we should be. All of this is just for speculation and discussion and with that said, here we go.

Coaches in any sport have to satisfy their stakeholders to remain in good standing. Let's call that satisfaction goodwill and put it in accounting terms with goodwill as assets and expectations as liabilities. In his first 3 seasons Chris Lemonis, with two consecutive trips to Omaha and winning State's first and only NC, amassed a huge stockpile of goodwill. But, with such a shocking and unexpected reversal of fates like we had this season, how much of a withdrawal did he make from that stockpile?

My thoughts are that, while Coach Lemonis does have a fortune in the bank, he unfortunately lives in a very high rent district. So, I think he had to write a check for at least a third of his nest egg this season and that a similar performance next season (perish the thought) might just put him on the brink of insolvency. Anyone agree or disagree? What would it take to have a break-even season next year? Thoughts?

 

[Cooterpoot]

He's not going anywhere. His seat isn't even remotely warm.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Yep. 2022 is a "That's Baseball" Mulligan year. Injuries can be tough to overcome especially when you're the hunted.

 

[patdog]

It is a mulligan year. But he needs to show tangible signs of improvement at the very minimum next year, or he'll start feeling some real heat. I've said it before no coach is more than 2-3 years from being fired these days.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Agreed. Regional appearance at a minimum next year.

 

[kired]

I was thinking about this last night. Making a regional every year should be the minimum expectation for our baseball team. We've missed out on postseason play maybe 8 - 9 times in my 41 years. If 2023 is a repeat of this season - no way he gets fired - but 2024 becomes a do or die year for him.

I really like Lemonis and have been impressed when I've heard him speak in person. So I've got a lot of faith in the guy. Just hope he gets our pitching staff figured out before next season.

 

[Cooterpoot]

It would take a total collapse of the program for Lemonis to feel any heat. If we don't have a decent year next year, I suspect you'll see staff changes. But that's about as far as it would go.

Now Mike Bianco, that mother17er is squarely on the hot seat. Few more losses and he's probably done.

 

[57stratdawg]

True. But, 2023 looks like the real rebuild year.

 

[maroonmania]

Scariest thing to me is that in the other 2 full Lemonis seasons we have been playing our best ball at the end of the year. For the 2022 you absolutely can't say that. We seem to have peaked around the Auburn/OM back to back weekends and are now in freefall. I would feel a lot better about 2023 if we were playing our best ball right now with some younger guys contributing. Forsythe at least has gotten better offensively I guess.

 

[muddawgs]

Yep. 2022 is a "That's Baseball" Mulligan year. Injuries can be tough to overcome especially when you're the hunted.

If injurie were the sole reason the baseball team were having a bad year, I wouldn't be concerned. There have been a lot of questionable coaching decisions that have attributed to this bad season. I remember there being several head scratchers last year as well, but we had the players to overcome those decisions. This year we don't. Taking Pico out Saturday night was so unbelievably dumb for a number of reasons. Pico was in the zone and dealing and when pitchers are hitting their spots and making batters look silly, you ride them to the finish line. Add in the fact that we have very little depth in our bullpen and the game was tied, so bringing in Hunt made zero sense. The only thing that did was burn two of our more reliable relief pitchers.

It's like our coaches have zero feel for their players or game management. We bat Jess Davis against left handed pitchers and then follow it up with sitting him against right handed pitchers to add another right handed bat to the lineup. We add Corder to the lineup in a must win game 3 against Mizzou batting under .200 against a right handed pitcher and proceeds to go 0-3. We have left our pitchers in way to long when we had Pico, Hunt or Auger when healthy available. Then add in taking Pico out in a tie game when he was making Florida look foolish at the plate. I'm hoping Lemonis and staff are just over coaching because of the limited pitchers we have, but some of the coaching decisions this year have me concerned for the future.

 

[thekimmer]

Scariest thing to me is that in the other 2 full Lemonis seasons we have been playing our best ball at the end of the year. For the 2022 you absolutely can't say that. We seem to have peaked around the Auburn/OM back to back weekends and are now in freefall. I would feel a lot better about 2023 if we were playing our best ball right now with some younger guys contributing. Forsythe at least has gotten better offensively I guess.

I agree but then that probably means that we just have run out of gas. Physically for the pitchers and mentally for everyone. Been a high stress year for sure. I hate to say it but we could potentially go 0-fer in these next two series.

 

[patdog]

It may be. But by the end of the year, we need to be showing signs of improvement next year, not limping to the finish line on a 5-game losing streak like we are now. This year reminds me a lot of 1986, at least in terms of results. That year we had lost everyone from the 1985 team and finished 12-15 in a pretty mediocre SEC. Then in 1987, we weren't much better, but beat Alabama on the last day of the season to grab the last spot in the SEC tournament, then won the tournament to advance to a regional. We at least need a 1987-type season next year.

 

[aTotal360]

Told y'all we should have fired him on the tarmac when they flew back from Omaha last year.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

It is a mulligan year. But he needs to show tangible signs of improvement at the very minimum next year, or he'll start feeling some real heat. I've said it before no coach is more than 2-3 years from being fired these days.

Hard to improve past this. I realize what you're saying but every time I hear the words 'we need to improve' I remember this.
View attachment 24408

 

[maroonmania]

I agree but then that probably means that we just have run out of gas. Physically for the pitchers and mentally for everyone. Been a high stress year for sure. I hate to say it but we could potentially go 0-fer in these next two series.

Yes, I'm sure part of it is mentally checking out but as a competitor I can't believe, with that M over S on your hat, that you wouldn't have a bit more pride in your performance.

 

[patdog]

Lemonis has never had a season like this one as a head coach, and few if any as an assistant coach. I'll be surprised if he has a second one back-to-back next year. This year was just one of those years. Just about everyone has one occasionally, and we've had several over the years.

 

[johnson86-1]

Sorry for the length but I feel I must start with a disclaimer. This is in no way shape or form implying that CCL is, or should be in imminent danger of losing his job nor is it meant to feed a narrative that he has been 'exposed' and is ultimately destined to fail. I am a still a Chris Lemonis fan and strongly believe that he has the drive & ability to get everything corrected and get us back where we should be. All of this is just for speculation and discussion and with that said, here we go.

Coaches in any sport have to satisfy their stakeholders to remain in good standing. Let's call that satisfaction goodwill and put it in accounting terms with goodwill as assets and expectations as liabilities. In his first 3 seasons Chris Lemonis, with two consecutive trips to Omaha and winning State's first and only NC, amassed a huge stockpile of goodwill. But, with such a shocking and unexpected reversal of fates like we had this season, how much of a withdrawal did he make from that stockpile?

My thoughts are that, while Coach Lemonis does have a fortune in the bank, he unfortunately lives in a very high rent district. So, I think he had to write a check for at least a third of his nest egg this season and that a similar performance next season (perish the thought) might just put him on the brink of insolvency. Anyone agree or disagree? What would it take to have a break-even season next year? Thoughts?

He hasn't had to write a check for anything. As long as he has us back on track next year (meaning hosting a regional), he's fine. Now I'm not expecting us to host a regional next year, but hopefully the team will have improved enough to give people confidence he has it on the right track. If he goes to a regional as a two seed next year, I would say he will have burned some, but very little, good will. If he doesn't get to a 2 seed, I think this year will count against him some.

If you want to stick with the financial analogy, maybe you'd say he's written some puts that can't be exercised until the end of next year or something. If we host a regional next year, this year didn't cost him anything but some temporary, unrealized losses. If we go as a two seed, he will lose some, but very little. We have to sneak in or don't make it, and the losses become realized.

 

[thekimmer]

He's not going anywhere. His seat isn't even remotely warm.

I agree. That is why I started this with the disclaimer. The point was not that Lemonis is on the hot seat but how much damage does this particular season do to him which I think you have to agree it does especially given the unusual circumstances of such a shocking fall off after a CWS championship with many returning pieces. Hopefully and likely it is temporary and promptly rebuilt.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Our hitting average and HR totals are as good/better than last year. Our pitching was awful, but give us those injured guys and we likely make a regional and nobody is bitching much.

 

[60sdog]

Change in hitting technique?

Our hitting average and HR totals are as good/better than last year. Our pitching was awful, but give us those injured guys and we likely make a regional and nobody is bitching much.

What concerns me is that there seems to have been a change in our hitting approach. Looks like we have begun following the MLB approach, which is to swing for the fences (uppercut swing, launch angles, exit velo, etc., instead of the traditional concept of trying to hit line drives, like Tanner, Rowdy, and Jake did).

Now it seems to be either HR or SO. I would love to see us hitting line drives when runners are on base.

 

[Smoked Toag]

If injurie were the sole reason the baseball team were having a bad year, I wouldn't be concerned.

Injuries ARE the sole reason we are having a bad year, so you shouldn't be concerned. And because of those injuries, the pressure is high to make correct decisions, and sometimes, the wrong ones are made. Such is life.

We would be a regional team without the injuries. If you are pissed that we are not a host-capable team, then you can start discussing the other things, like hitting approach, etc. But the pitching injuries are BY FAR the biggest reason that we will likely not be in the NCAA field.

It is what it is. Accept it.

 

[Cooterpoot]

What concerns me is that there seems to have been a change in our hitting approach. Looks like we have begun following the MLB approach, which is to swing for the fences (uppercut swing, launch angles, exit velo, etc., instead of the traditional concept of trying to hit line drives, like Tanner, Rowdy, and Jake did).

Now it seems to be either HR or SO. I would love to see us hitting line drives when runners are on base.

I don't disagree, and that's what Lemonis likes. We're recruiting bigger hitters too. People forget, Lemonis is a hitting guy too. He loves a Schwarber type hitter.

 

[beachbumdawg]

I don't disagree, and that's what Lemonis likes. We're recruiting bigger hitters too. People forget, Lemonis is a hitting guy too. He loves a Schwarber type hitter.

Agree but what he is not getting is anyone one with speed or threat of speed - only 10 SB attempts in SEC play

This a little contrary to what we were told at camp - he wants guys that can
1. Throw hard
2. Hit the ball a long way
3. Be fast

Don’t have to do all 3 but needs to do 2 of 3 things to be looked at but kids also have to be able to compete

To say that pitching this year has been abysmal is an understatement - sec only

ERA - 12th
Ks - 2nd
Hits allowed -T6th
ER allowed- 12th
Bb allowed - 14th
2B allowed- t10th (2nd to last)
HR allowed- t12th (2nd to last)

 

[thekimmer]

I'm going to partially disagree with this....

Injuries ARE the sole reason we are having a bad year, so you shouldn't be concerned. And because of those injuries, the pressure is high to make correct decisions, and sometimes, the wrong ones are made. Such is life.

We would be a regional team without the injuries. If you are pissed that we are not a host-capable team, then you can start discussing the other things, like hitting approach, etc. But the pitching injuries are BY FAR the biggest reason that we will likely not be in the NCAA field.

It is what it is. Accept it.

I think injuries certainly are a big factor but are by no means the sole reason. Hitting has been almost or just as big a factor as pitching and I am unaware of any significant injuries among our position players. Also the seeds of this anomaly were already evident the first two or three weekends of the season when the team was entirely intact and we still dropped two of three to a bad Long Beach and a game to an abysmal Northern KY. Even the Tulane series where Sims and Simmons went down we won our only game with Sims and lost the series. I remember it being said by many at the time that if we play like this in the SEC we won't make Hoover and well, now here we are.

 

[Dawgg]

He hasn't dipped into the 401(k) yet, but he's drawing from the Savings account for next season.

If we miss the NCAA Tournament again in 2023 (assuming the rest of this season plays out as expected), he's gonna have to start making deposits in 2024 or he's going to find himself facing bankruptcy in 2025.

If he gets us in the upper 3rd of the SEC and/or into a Super Regional next season and he's got a balanced account as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Dawgg]

when pitchers are hitting their spots and making batters look silly, you ride them to the finish line.

Mike Bianco approves of this post.

 

[thekimmer]

Our hitting average and HR totals are as good/better than last year. Our pitching was awful, but give us those injured guys and we likely make a regional and nobody is bitching much.

I disagree. HRs are way up and BA is about the same but there is no way we are hitting as well with RISP as we did last year. Lemonis and others have bemoaned this all season long.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Agree but what he is not getting is anyone one with speed or threat of speed - only 10 SB attempts in SEC play

This a little contrary to what we were told at camp - he wants guys that can
1. Throw hard
2. Hit the ball a long way
3. Be fast

Don’t have to do all 3 but needs to do 2 of 3 things to be looked at but kids also have to be able to compete

To say that pitching this year has been abysmal is an understatement - sec only

ERA - 12th
Ks - 2nd
Hits allowed -T6th
ER allowed- 12th
Bb allowed - 14th
2B allowed- t10th (2nd to last)
HR allowed- t12th (2nd to last)

Can't argue. Recruiting has to be better. Some guys better develop fast or they'll be in the portal too.

 

[pmack3641]

Agree with most of what you said, I do think your wrong about the bullpen. It has been terribly inconsistent or just plain bad, that goes for the 3 you mentioned. In a close game or save situation the bullpen hasn’t produced what’s needed to close out a game. Example Kohn only pitched an inning on Saturday, was brought in yesterday and gave up a home run when we needed him to keep it a 1 run game. So hard for me to criticize Leomonis for keeping starters in longer then necessary when the bullpen has been so unreliable. Also he’s had to use 4 bullpen pitchers as starters this year, which depleted the bullpen. IMO pitching has been the major cause for this bad season, everything else became a domino effect.

 

[Cooterpoot]

I disagree. HRs are way up and BA is about the same but there is no way we are hitting as well with RISP as we did last year. Lemonis and others have bemoaned this all season long.

But that's on the kids. They have to do that, you can't coach someone to do it. We also lost the most clutch player in the history of the program. And to be fair, Hancock and Tanner were damn clutch last year. Just hasn't happened this year.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Lemonis has never had a season like this one as a head coach, and few if any as an assistant coach. I'll be surprised if he has a second one back-to-back next year. This year was just one of those years. Just about everyone has one occasionally, and we've had several over the years.

I agree and I believe he will not be as "patient" with players in the offseason. Just a gut feeling he will be looking at the portal pretty hard.

 

[MSUDC11]

I think you only have a problem if you miss the postseason in 2023 and 2024 as well, which seems incredibly unlikely.

 

[jackbaddawg]

Choking at the plate with men on base has to be around 83.97 %

 

[harrybollocks]

Was he a hot commodity when we hired him? Who did we beat out to get him? Obviously he can coach, he's got a Natty, and likely gets even two more mediocre years for his prior record. But, he also set a standard since being here that he'll ultimately have to live up to. He better learn to out-recruit SEC teams.

 

[maroonmania]

Was he a hot commodity when we hired him? Who did we beat out to get him? Obviously he can coach, he's got a Natty, and likely gets even two more mediocre years for his prior record. But, he also set a standard since being here that he'll ultimately have to live up to. He better learn to out-recruit SEC teams.

I don't think you could categorize Lemonis as a "hot commodity" when we hired him. He never finished higher than 3rd in the Big 10 in his 4 years at Indiana and only his last year there did he finish with 40 wins but was only 5th that year in the Big 10. Now granted Indiana is no baseball powerhouse but neither was Kentucky when Cohen took that job and Cohen had more relative success winning 44 games in 2 of his last 3 seasons there during his 5 year tenure including an SEC title.

 

[Go Budaw]

We just won the national championship.

This season is a lost hand at a $10 blackjack table, with $500 still sitting in the stack. And it’s a hand lost with 18 and the dealer drawing out to 21 on 5 cards after having a 5 showing. That’s the most accurate metaphor I can use to describe our horrible luck with injuries this year.

 

[kired]

I disagree. HRs are way up and BA is about the same but there is no way we are hitting as well with RISP as we did last year. Lemonis and others have bemoaned this all season long.

It's not the glaring difference that everyone makes it out to be. The biggest difference is not getting runners home from 3rd w/ less than 2 outs. We are striking out more often - I'd guess that's the main reason for the difference in scoring runners from 3rd.

RISP, all games
2021: 215 - 718 .299
2022: 148 - 494 .300

SEC only
2021: 79-291 .271
2022: 65-247 .263


Other hitting comparisons (all games / SEC only)

w/ runners on base
2021: .290 / .271
2022: .295 / .264

RBI with runner @ 3rd & less than 2 outs
2021: 143 RBI in 212 opportunities (.675) --- 3.1 opportunities per game / 47 RBI in 71 opportunities (.662) --- 2.4 opportunities per game
2022: 80 RBI in 129 opportunities (.620) --- 2.7 opportunities per game / 31 RBI in 58 opportunities (.534) --- 2.4 opportunities per game

LOB
2021: 7.7 per game / 7.8
2022: 7.8 per game / 8.3 (we also have slightly more runners on base than 2021, so you'd expect this to be slightly higher)

 

[aTotal360]

You must be rich. We can't afford to lose $10. **

 

[Maroon Eagle]

He sold his leg. **

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

Fine this year fine next year. He might be in trouble if in year three post natty is a stinker like this one. But I think it would take three straight stinker years to get him in trouble.

I don't expect us to be a stinker next year. I expect us to rebound