Interesting analysis of last year's football season...

[WeAreMShoe]

This is a pretty interesting statistical look at last year's football season by SMQ. I don't really know how I feel about it, but I tend to agree with Coach that we are going to have to find a way to win without relying on defensive touchdowns, namely, a competent offense. I'm optimisic, and let's hope last season wasn't a complete fluke.

http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/2008/5/22/534212/revisiting-mississippi-sta

Discuss...

 

[Shmuley]

1. Can the OL step up and get it done?; and
2. Will Cheese fill the extraordinarily big shoes of EJ?

 

[Hector.sixpack]

and people talk about them like we shouldn't expect them to happen..at least for us. Now, I wouldn't predict us to score 6 TDs off of defense and special teams, but saying we won't be as good because turnovers are unpredictable is stupid. We played good defense last year, and should be able to do about the same this year. We won 8 games with a qb right out of high school. Lots of questions yet to be answered but the whole "turnover" argument is worthless.

 

[Goat Holder]

and there's nothing they can do about it.</p>

 

[Rebheaded Stranger]

that separates you from the others.
</p>

 

[vhdawg]

...without the statistical anomaly that was the LSU game. I still wish I had gone and bought six footballs from Academy the day after, put them in a garbage bag, and tied them to the front door of the Henig Furs on County Line with a note saying "I think you guys lost these."

 

[patdog]

And is pretty much what Coach34 and I have been telling you <17>ers for months now. Last year was great, but it was built on fluke plays. I know turnovers are part of the game, and I'm not saying we didn't earn those wins, but as SMQ says, "defensive and special teams touchdowns are about as reliable as lightning strikes." We'd better do a lot to improve offensively if we want to have a prayer of matching last year's 8 wins.

 

[Goat Holder]

for even the limp wrists like you to see. You know, the reason you play the games? What's next, are you going to tell me I'm wrong in saying we won 8 games and nobody else's opinion will change that?

This coming from an Ole Miss fan, a fanbase that has been crying all night about Cohen saying they got beat by a lesser team.

 

[AdamDawgDude]

And is pretty much what Coach34 and I have been telling you <17>ers for months now. Last year was great, but it was built on fluke plays. I know turnovers are part of the game, and I'm not saying we didn't earn those wins, but as SMQ says, "defensive and special teams touchdowns are about as reliable as lightning strikes." We'd better do a lot to improve offensively if we want to have a prayer of matching last year's 8 wins.

</p>You must have missed the Madkin years....

 

[Hector.sixpack]

"defensive and special teams touchdowns are about as reliable as lightning strikes."

Lightning strikes all the time at Virginia Tech. I'm the kind of person that believes an 8 win team with most of it's defense, starting qb, and rb coming back could be a good team. I guess I'm going out on a limb.

 

[patdog]

You must have missed the Madkin years....

The Madkin offenses were light-years better than the Croom offenses have been.

 

[DowntownDawg]

...and it's pretty well written, but your blanket statement of "last year was built on fluke plays" is ridiculous. We have had this conversation 20 times, but we won 8 games. In two of those games defensive touchdowns made a huge difference. In the rest, the margin of victory was more than the defensive touchdown alone. In the Auburn game, the pick six was very early on. It's impossible to say whether or not we win or lose that game without the pick 6, but if you are going to take that "fluke play" off the board, then go ahead and take DP's fumble on the kick off off the board. Both of those are unlikely. In 2008, we can't rely on the Auburn quarterback to give us 7 points, but neither can they "rely" on our Pegues to fumble the kickoff and give them seven. That's football. Actually, a fumbled kickoff is much more rare than a tipped ball interception.

AJ's INT return against Alabama will go down in MSU history as one of the biggest "swing plays" of all time as far as swinging the momentum. Still, it was in the first half. It would've been very difficult to overcome that if they go on to score a touchdown there. However, what if Wilson just throws it away (which he tried to do), and they kick a FG and go up 12-3? It's impossible to say whether or not we win at that point, but the way we played in the second half coupled with the way JPW played, we very likely would've.

Probably the "flukiest" win was the Ole Miss game, because 1) we got help from Orgeron on the 4th and 1 and 2) we got the punt return.

Last year was not built on fluke plays. It was built on very good defense, taking care of the football, and making enough special teams plays. Getting a punt blocked against South Carolina is a fluke play. Why don't we take that off the board? We might've won 9 games. It just doesn't work like that, and you need to give it a rest.

We definitely need the offense to improve, because I do expect some kind of defensive regression this year without EJ and now without AJ. However, don't act like we lucked our way into 8 wins. That just doesn't happen. Luck happens in college football, but not in the way you are talking about.

 

[patdog]

Bama, Auburn and Mississippi. And even if you discount the Auburn game because there were offsetting fluke plays, that's still the difference between a 5-7 season and an 8-5 season. Of course, Auburn did us a huge favor by benching their best QB after only one bad pass. The Kodi Burns offense was easy to stop cold once we made a couple of halftime adjustments.</p>

 

[TR.sixpack]

What a ******** phrase. How is throwing an pick six when someone is in your grill a "fluke play"? Since when is cashing in on a forced mistake by your opponent, a "fluke play?" Ole Miss wouldn't have punted the ball to Pegues if they'd been able to move the ball against the D. JP Wilson wouldn't have thrown that ball like a duck if Brown hadn't shot at him like a cannon -- he tried to throw it away but was unable to get anything on it because Titus was on top of him. Did the defensive TD's against Tulane and GWU have any role in the outcome?

Auburn and Bama had a entire half or more to recover from their pick 6's, but were unable to. What was flukey about that?

 

[8dog]

all year was taking the ball ball 45 yards to the end zone to beat Auburn b/c it was all on the ground and Auburn knew it was going to be on the ground and then turning around and getting a stop inside our own 10 on 4 plays.

That was far more impressive than any sort of "fluke."

 

[Shmuley]

and I bet there was not one state fan anywhere around saying to themselves at the time, "Well, hell, that TD shouldn't count because it was a defensive turnover ..." or "We can't count that TD since it was fluke they punted to DP."

Hell, I was glad to see us [17n] compete for a change.

 

[DowntownDawg]

....and it tells me that you are just WANTING there to be a reason not to give Croom or last year's team any credit. You are purposefully trying to take a set of facts and view them in such a way that it fits your viewpoint that has been hardened into your psyche since Croom got here. You don't give a **** for him (for whatever reason), and you want him gone. When he wins 8 games, you complain that those wins were "flukes," even though that has been proven to be ridiculous.

First of all, there is no "EVEN IF" when it comes to the Auburn game. If you are going to call one play a fluke, call the other one a fluke as well.

While we're at it, let's go ahead and take Wes Carroll's interception against Alabama off the board. I mean, that was a fluke, right? He held the record for consecutive passes thrown without an INT. That led to a Bama FG. And let's say that Titus gets to JPW and he gets sacked and doesn't foolishly put the ball up in the air. Would that be less flukish for you? Say we don't score anymore than we did. We still win 10-9.

Or if you don't like that, let's say Feld picks up his man on the punt against SC. At least that fluke play happened in the second half. It is just as logical to say that we beat South Carolina without the blocked punt as to say that we lose to Alabama without the interception. And a punt being blocked is a whole lot less flukish than an interception.

You see how ridiculous this game is? It all evens out over the course of the year. We give up 14 points on "fluke" kicking game plays at Auburn and SC, and we 7 points on Pegues' punt return against Ole Miss. That is the nature of the game of football. We had just as many go against us as we did go for us.

You're doing the same thing that the sheep did the year before when the battle cry was "we lost 4 games by 3 points" or whatever it was. You are what you are. It was ******** when they were doing it then, and it's ******** when you are doing it now. And all it is is that you can't stand Croom and you refuse to look at it objectively.

 

[TR.sixpack]

was the defense was good enough to keep the game close so we could cash in on those opportunities. Also, we were in the top 6 in the SEC in red zone scoring %, meaning if we got inside the 20, by whatever means, we usually came away with points. We also were #1 red zone defense %, denying opponents ANY points a third of the time.

 

[stevo1a]

....and it tells me that you are just WANTING there to be a reason not to give Croom or last year's team any credit. You are purposefully trying to take a set of facts and view them in such a way that it fits your viewpoint that has been hardened into your psyche since Croom got here. You don't give a **** for him (for whatever reason), and you want him gone. When he wins 8 games, you complain that those wins were "flukes," even though that has been proven to be ridiculous.

First of all, there is no "EVEN IF" when it comes to the Auburn game. If you are going to call one play a fluke, call the other one a fluke as well.

While we're at it, let's go ahead and take Wes Carroll's interception against Alabama off the board. I mean, that was a fluke, right? He held the record for consecutive passes thrown without an INT. That led to a Bama FG. And let's say that Titus gets to JPW and he gets sacked and doesn't foolishly put the ball up in the air. Would that be less flukish for you? Say we don't score anymore than we did. We still win 10-9.

Or if you don't like that, let's say Feld picks up his man on the punt against SC. At least that fluke play happened in the second half. It is just as logical to say that we beat South Carolina without the blocked punt as to say that we lose to Alabama without the interception. And a punt being blocked is a whole lot less flukish than an interception.

You see how ridiculous this game is? It all evens out over the course of the year. We give up 14 points on "fluke" kicking game plays at Auburn and SC, and we 7 points on Pegues' punt return against Ole Miss. That is the nature of the game of football. We had just as many go against us as we did go for us.

You're doing the same thing that the sheep did the year before when the battle cry was "we lost 4 games by 3 points" or whatever it was. You are what you are. It was ******** when they were doing it then, and it's ******** when you are doing it now. And all it is is that you can't stand Croom and you refuse to look at it objectively.

<stevo1a's eyes suddenly turn misty. A single tear trickles down his left cheek. He stands defiantly and begins the slow clap.></p>