Why are they trapped? As far as I can tell, the only question is does the SEC or Big Ten want Florida State. If the answer is yes, FSU can afford the legal cost of leaving the ACC.
They really are trapped. SEC or Big 10 won’t see a dollar from adding FSU until 2037. It took a lot for the Texas & Oklahoma to get out of their GOR agreement even 1 year before it expires. Only way out for FSU is negotiation. But the rest of the ACC has little incentive to negotiate with them. And ESPN has little incentive to renegotiate its media deal with the ACC.
I agree. Would be hard to pull off. I read some comments on Twitter (yeah I know doesn’t mean it is accurate). In essence it talked about ACC not doing their part or providing their end of the agreement on the contract. It wasn’t as simple as I am saying but basically it had some legal jargon that the contract had 2 sides, the GOR but then what the ACC should be providing for the FSU Grant of Rights. And I have read (again I don’t know how accurate), if 8 schools vote to disband, then the ACC dissolves, and the GOR’s with it.
It cost Texas & Oklahoma $50M each to leave the big 12 just 1 year early. The cost to FSU to leave 13 years early would be astronomical.
I think this is their one slim chance. Don’t know how many votes it would take to dissolve the ACC. But if they could, there’s no ESPN contract & no GOR. But I don’t see there being much motivation from the mid-to-lower tier ACC schools to even begin to consider letting their gravy train go.
They'll make that money up with their first year cut of the tv revenue payout. They're really not paying anything.
Agree. If we were to guess at the 8, it would have to be 8 that have landing spots in the Big 10 or SEC. I’ll leave Notre Dame out of it because I don’t know if they have a vote (by the way part of the FSU argument was Notre Dame kept their media rights and has a separate football deal through NBC, so FSU being held to an agreement that ND is not held to).
If it was that easy Texas & Oklahoma would have been in the SEC in 2022 like a lot of people were assuming. And there would have been some movement among the top ACC schools by now. There’s a reason they’re getting zero interest from anyone, either to poach their top teams or to possibly join their league.
My comment had nothing to do with the ACC. Just the observation that what TX and OK are paying the B12 to leave early is approximately the same amount that their first year revenue cut will be in the SEC. They probably didn't have the same deal available to them for 2022.
The ACC and Big 12 contracts are totally different. A lot of observers seem to think that Florida State has a shot to get out 10 years early or more for something in the 100-150 million range.
I think the NIL part (and the mention of “Brand”) is part of her argument as well. As we all know, players signed scholarships to play in the NCAA (a contract) and were to abide by the NCAA guideline that a student/athlete could not profit from their own Name, Image or Likeness. That was ruled against in a court of law. Now they can profit. This may just be posturing for a higher revenue share, to make the ACC think about if the GOR is really as ironclad as they think, thus a tactic to maybe work a negotiation out where FSU can leave for a price (with their media rights) which seems highly unlikely, as you have said.
16 is already way too many for me. If I had my way, we'd go back to the 12 we had and there would be 6 major conferences. But those days are gone. Going forward from here, and assuming the ACC grant of rights could be gotten out of, I'd take UNC, FSU and Clemson and drop Missouri.
I wonder if the SEC schools that were here prior to AR and SC being added are considered "Charter SEC Member Schools" and those who came later don't share that same status whatever the hell that means. Adding one each from NC or VA would be ideal IMO. It seems expansion's priorities are getting into a state you're not currently in so I think Clemson would not get an invite.
I hope State and OM vote in a way that says “we don’t care about your rivalry” every time UF or the such whine about not wanting their rival in the SEC.
There's no distinction between a charter member and a member who joined recently. That was a persistent message board fabrication that never had any basis in fact.
Real question for me is: "Why would ESPN want to start paying four times the price for the same inventory of Florida State home games?"
I think what's going to happen is the ACC is going to wind up going to an unequal distribution model, with FSU getting somewhere between the 7% they're getting now and the 15% they want. Then in about 8 years, you're going to start seeing some movement with the top ACC schools. I think FSU and Clemson will wind up in the SEC. The Big 10 and SEC will fight over UNC and either UVA or VA Tech.
I think ESPN would like to protect the brands that they have in FSU, Clemson, etc and not allow them to defect to Big 10 and Fox. With that said, I agree with you. They have a sweet contract for now with the ACC. But when the time comes, it would be in ESPN’s interest to ensure they keep those brands, whether it be through ACC or SEC. I still think that it is a few years away. BUT, if FSU clears the hurdle of the GOR, 100% ESPN would have to pay to protect those brands, or they would 100% go to Big 10 and be under the Fox umbrella.
Ah, the ol' "appease Texas" strategy that kept the Big 12 alive back in 2012. To be fair, it kept them in the conference for another decade, but it was a pretty clear sign that the Big 12 didn't have the stability of the other power conferences (and why).
I think you are spot on. IF UNC ties their movement with Duke. That would be 5. I believe UVA would be coveted by Power 2. That’s 6. Depending on whether UNC/UVA goes to BIg 10 or SEC, NC State and VaTech would be other SEC option to get into those States. Not sure on Pitt, Syracuse or Boston College having Big 10’s interest. Probably not. Schools would need guarantees BEFORE voting. That may be hard because Big 10/SEC wouldn’t want legal problems. Now 10 years from now, could happen.
I think UNC is going to have to look out for UNC. The days of tying themselves to Duke will be long over when the time comes to consider a Big 2 invite. It's not going to be so much "getting into a state" as it will be national prominence that's going to determine which schools the Big 10 or SEC take. So schools like NC State & VA Tech will likely be left out.
If so, then the only brands I could see meaning anything to SEC are Clemson, FSU, UNC. The fourth, in my opinion, would be one of Miami, Duke or UVA. And truth is Clemson and FSU are the only natural fits.
My guess is the SEC takes FSU and Clemson. It will try to take UNC and UVA, but they'll choose the Big 10. The remaining ACC schools will be left in the ACC.
Truth be told, the more I think about, the less I think Syracuse would make the cut for the Big Ten. It's not an AAU school and they already have Rutgers in New York/New Jersey. I would go ahead and move them to the 'no' column.
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