Jake Mangum AAA debut
- Thread starter Go Budaw
- Start date
Drebin, patdog, myself, etc.
I have a feeling we're all happy about being wrong. Mangum is a special dude. Constantly overcoming the odds.
He's doing better than I thought he would for sure. Still think he's a long shot to make the majors, but like you say he's a special dude. If anyone can beat the odds, it's him. BTW, he had 4 hits last night in his 2nd game, so he's hitting a cool .667 in AAA.
I don’t think it’s a long shot he makes the majors. I bet he’s up there at some point. He may be a guy that bounces from triple A and the major league until he runs out of options but I bet he makes it at some point.
Plus fielder, plus base runner, switch hitter and when you look at his charts in the minors, he hits the ball to the whole field now, not a slap hitter. He’s got a place on a big league club, even though it might not be an everyday lineup guy. He’s old enough now that the Mets won’t feel bad about bringing him up to be a spot starter. They won’t feel like they are stunting the development of a 21 year old 1st round pick.
The extent of the odds were whether he could hit with more power, and whether he could be more disciplined at the plate (see more pitches, get more walks, etc.). He had everything else he needed beyond those things. And he has one unteachable skill that we all saw at MSU….he can put the barrel on any pitch anywhere in the strike zone and line drive it somewhere.
The “more power” came almost immediately at the beginning of his first full minor league season last year. The added discipline has come more this year. Last season (which was a really good year for him), he got a walk or HBP only once every 14 PA’s. This year, he’s been at about once every 9 PA’s. He keeps doing that, and he’s gonna get the call up sooner rather than later.
The other thing is the Mets OF prospect depth isn’t what it was, either. Pete Crow Armstrong is with the Cubs now, and the previous AAA CF Cortes was hitting like .188 when he got demoted down to AA. Brandon Nimmo is also a free agent after 2022, so that is a big domino that could fall in Jake’s favor….but even if he stays in Queens the corner OF spots are currently being occupied by a couple of journeymen 33 year olds. The opportunity will be there.
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Giving honest thoughts on his prospects doesn't remotely equate to betting against him.
His start in the minors was pretty abysmal. It was worth discussing the idea he wasn't gonna get that turned around. It's possible to do that while also rooting hard that he does.
Very glad he looks more and more like he'll get there.
Not necessarily you, but there was more than one person that was “betting against him” by saying his chances were significantly worse than other 4th round picks both that year and historically, saying he was only taken there because he was cheap as a senior signee. This ignored the fact that college seniors get drafted that high every year, and he was the first senior off the board.
As for his “abysmal start”, that’s not uncommon for anybody who takes a bus from Omaha in mid June straight to a minor league hotel to get ready to start playing pro ball. Happens to players with much more draft capital and financial capital invested in them than Jake had. Nobody should have made any sort of judgment on his pro outlook based on what happened from June - August of 2019.
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He batted .220 in June and July of 2021 at Binghamton. Don't remember what his season average was at that point but it was way under .300. Very un Jake like less than a year ago.
He exploded in August to bat over .400 and has been advancing ever since. The Mets obviously see things they like as we all do who know him. BUT, he was not looking like a strong possibility for the majors as late as early August of last year, so a lot of what you just said has a tad bit of BS in it.
That June / July of 2021 wasn’t the start of his minors career….it was after he had already been promoted twice (from Low A to High A and from High A to AA). He moved up to AA like 2-3 weeks into his very first full minor league season. He started advancing way before that slump.
And yeah, AA has claimed many souls of elite talents. Everybody slumps there at some point if they hang out there long enough. He fought through it and now he’s been promoted again. Not sure where the BS is in that statement. If every player that slumped in AA was thought to not ever have a chance at the majors, there would be almost no MLB players.
The middle of his first full season in the minors (2021) is not the start of his minor league career? I'm not doing this with you. I stand by what I said.
His numbers looked like **** on July 31st of 2021 and his promotions were a likely a function of his his age, stuff happening in that organization and the fact he's one of the better players in SEC history. It wasn't his performance at that point, full 17ing stop.
Well ****, you said “full stop” before I could….don’t know how I’ll ever recover from this…
He played in something like 80-100 games over a period of 2 years before that slump period you mentioned. You’re deliberately picking a short window in time where he struggled to prop up your argument….ignoring the two months before, the one month after, and the entire season as a whole. And whats funny is you don’t even have to do these mental gymnastics because he really did struggle extensively in the beginning….in 2019.
Promotions because he “was one of the best players in SEC history”? Please. To be clear, you’re literally saying the Mets acted against their best interests and promoted a worse player over better ones because of what that worse player did in college 2 to 6 years in the past. That’s pretty absurd.
I said "full stop" because I know how disagreeing with you goes. It won't end. I posted this last year in early June and it got worse after, it was perfectly reasonable to have discussions about his future. You were very positive about him and you were right to be, but the numbers certainly weren't supporting that at the time...
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(Not sure what you’re trying to link there, seems to be the thread we’re already in)
I don’t know that even I would consider myself overly positive about him. I simply think others wrote him off well before they should have….for reasons that are confusing and odd. My only take was that his chances would be similar to others with similar draft capital (which aren’t super great for even guys in the 4th round), and it would take some time for his career to shake out one way or the other.
I’ve also never even been one of those “never bet against Jake!” guys, either. Sure, he’s a got heart, leadership, drive, and a great attitude, but it takes way, way more than all that to get to MLB or even to AAA where he is now. From a pure tools standpoint, he’s always had about 80% of what he needed even at MSU. The other 20% was the power and patience at the plate….things that were certainly weaknesses at MSU and during his 2019 partial season in A ball. Continuous improvement in those areas is where he will sink or swim. All the other stuff about his age and him hitting .200 for these 2 months or .400 for this one month or whatever is just white noise in the background. Can’t draw a conclusion either way off any of that stuff.
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