Probably the only thing you need to know about the Kentucky game is that is at Kentucky. We all know what's coming - it will be 8 on 5 throughout the night. Somehow we have to deal with that if we want to have a chance in this game.
If you haven't seen Kentucky this year, they look much different than they have in the last couple of years. They play faster (top 20 tempo in the sport), are a very strong shooting team from both two point range (55%, 27th nationally) and three point range (almost 40%, top 10), and are top 5 in the country in scoring at about 91 ppg. For reference, last year with Tshiebwe in the middle and not enough good shooters, they were 258 in tempo, shot <35% from three, and averaged about 75 ppg. You can expect them to push, push, push all night, even moreso than Bama. They don't get to the line a lot but are pretty effective when they do.
But the defense...oh the defense. It hasn't been great, giving up 76 ppg (283rd nationally). That's unusual for a Coach Cal team. Love him or hate him, he generally gets his teams to defend. To be sitting at 76 ppg allowed has to be driving him a little crazy, but the metrics still have them as a top 50-80 defense per KenPom and Torvik.
They might also be a little vulnerable on the glass. While they are 63rd in total rebounds per game which is solid, they get there by being 217th in offensive rebounding and 25th in defensive. That offensive number is startling. They were literally #1 in the country in offensive rebounding last year thanks to Oscar. I guess you get so used to seeing that be "their thing" that when it's not a strength it takes some getting used to. So maybe there's a chance for us to make a difference in the game that way. Yes, I know we got worked over in Columbia on the boards (-9 margin), but the last two games have been better. We were even with UT and grabbed one more rebound than Bama did taking us to -8 in three SEC games. Kentucky has been outrebounded in two of their three SEC games, with the only positive margin game against Missouri who is one of the worst rebounding teams in America. Seems to me like Jans has a decision to make. Crash the offensive glass with four bodies and risk being caught with your pants down in transition or play it safe and focus more on the transition defense. (Option 3: Make a bunch of shots.)
The roster, as usual, is filled with a bunch of 4 and 5 stars. He can go 10 deep if he wants to but one the pieces has been hurt and not playing, Adou Thiero. Doesn't sound like he's going to play tomorrow so now that I've typed that put him down for a double-double. The main culprits are Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, Tre Mitchell, DJ Wagner and Reed Shepphard - all of them are double digit scorers. The announcers LOOOOOOOOOOOVE Reed Sheppard and his parents. It's Kramer Robertson-esque. Anyway, they've got speed, length, athleticism....basically what you would expect from the level at which they recruit.
Going to Rupp is never easy. If Kentucky makes a bunch of shots, they'll beat us. We just don't have the players and the confidence to keep up with them in that kind of game. Our best bet is to REALLY guard the threes, slow the tempo, and pray that we make enough shots to win. We will have to hold them in the low 70s to have our best chance. If they hit 40 by halftime, it's over. We're almost certainly going to walk out of there at 1-3, but that's always been our most likely outcome for these four games. In that respect, we are playing with house money. So maybe they can play loose and pull off something memorable.
If you haven't seen Kentucky this year, they look much different than they have in the last couple of years. They play faster (top 20 tempo in the sport), are a very strong shooting team from both two point range (55%, 27th nationally) and three point range (almost 40%, top 10), and are top 5 in the country in scoring at about 91 ppg. For reference, last year with Tshiebwe in the middle and not enough good shooters, they were 258 in tempo, shot <35% from three, and averaged about 75 ppg. You can expect them to push, push, push all night, even moreso than Bama. They don't get to the line a lot but are pretty effective when they do.
But the defense...oh the defense. It hasn't been great, giving up 76 ppg (283rd nationally). That's unusual for a Coach Cal team. Love him or hate him, he generally gets his teams to defend. To be sitting at 76 ppg allowed has to be driving him a little crazy, but the metrics still have them as a top 50-80 defense per KenPom and Torvik.
They might also be a little vulnerable on the glass. While they are 63rd in total rebounds per game which is solid, they get there by being 217th in offensive rebounding and 25th in defensive. That offensive number is startling. They were literally #1 in the country in offensive rebounding last year thanks to Oscar. I guess you get so used to seeing that be "their thing" that when it's not a strength it takes some getting used to. So maybe there's a chance for us to make a difference in the game that way. Yes, I know we got worked over in Columbia on the boards (-9 margin), but the last two games have been better. We were even with UT and grabbed one more rebound than Bama did taking us to -8 in three SEC games. Kentucky has been outrebounded in two of their three SEC games, with the only positive margin game against Missouri who is one of the worst rebounding teams in America. Seems to me like Jans has a decision to make. Crash the offensive glass with four bodies and risk being caught with your pants down in transition or play it safe and focus more on the transition defense. (Option 3: Make a bunch of shots.)
The roster, as usual, is filled with a bunch of 4 and 5 stars. He can go 10 deep if he wants to but one the pieces has been hurt and not playing, Adou Thiero. Doesn't sound like he's going to play tomorrow so now that I've typed that put him down for a double-double. The main culprits are Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, Tre Mitchell, DJ Wagner and Reed Shepphard - all of them are double digit scorers. The announcers LOOOOOOOOOOOVE Reed Sheppard and his parents. It's Kramer Robertson-esque. Anyway, they've got speed, length, athleticism....basically what you would expect from the level at which they recruit.
Going to Rupp is never easy. If Kentucky makes a bunch of shots, they'll beat us. We just don't have the players and the confidence to keep up with them in that kind of game. Our best bet is to REALLY guard the threes, slow the tempo, and pray that we make enough shots to win. We will have to hold them in the low 70s to have our best chance. If they hit 40 by halftime, it's over. We're almost certainly going to walk out of there at 1-3, but that's always been our most likely outcome for these four games. In that respect, we are playing with house money. So maybe they can play loose and pull off something memorable.
