Latest Realignment Rumor - Big Ten Getting 4

[Dawgg]

I usually bypass these because they seem so crazy, but I'm seeing enough of this specific one on Twitter to start a thread on it. The big rumor running right now is that the Big Ten is going to announce the addition of four teams this week:
Washington
Oregon
Clemson
Florida State

I wasn't surprised to see Washington and Oregon. They're both name brand AAU schools that could reduce travel costs for USC and UCLA and Colorado leaving last week put the writing on the wall for the rest of the Pac-12.

The big surprises here (and what makes me think this rumor might be BS) are Clemson and Florida State. They're both name brands, sure, but these two would be the first non-AAU admissions into the Big Ten and, to my knowledge, there have been no loopholes found in the ACC grant of rights. That being said, there's another rumor floating around that FSU has negotiated a $300 Million buyout of its grant of rights and a 10 year annual installment plan ($30 Million/year would be about half of what they would get from a Big Ten payout). If there is an outside chance this is true, I would call this an opening salvo from the Big Ten towards the SEC more than anything else.

 

[GloryDawg]

If that's true, I think the SEC will either approach or be approach by a few ACC schools.

 

[patdog]

I seriously doubt there's anything at all to the FSU and Clemson part of this. Even if Big 10 could find a way to get around the grant of rights agreements (they can't), they'd be coming for North Carolina and Virginia.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Even if Big 10 could find a way to get around the grant of rights agreements (they can't), they'd be coming for North Carolina and Virginia.

They may be able to work around the media rights, but the B10 would take UNC first and UVA next. They also consider themselves an academic conference, Clempson and FSU, don't fit that bill.

 

[MStateDawg]

there's another rumor floating around that FSU has negotiated a $300 Million buyout of its grant of rights and a 10 year annual installment plan ($30 Million/year would be about half of what they would get from a Big Ten payout).

The rights you speak of are currently owned by ESPN. Why would they negotiate a deal to allow these rights to transfer to a competitor in Fox?

 

[Dawgg]

The rights you speak of are currently owned by ESPN. Why would they negotiate a deal to allow these rights to transfer to a competitor in Fox?

That's a really good point. I'm not advocating that any of this is true. It's just stuff that's been swirling around the internet for the past couple of days.

To play devil's advocate though.... There are two reasons why the rights buyout is plausible:
1. ESPN may think the Florida State rights aren't worth more than $300 Million for the next ten years. Converting an asset to cash seems like a viable option when a company (like ESPN) is trying to become profitable again.

2. Florida State is actually on its way to the SEC and adjusting for the $30 Million/year, ESPN would actually pay about the same for Florida State rights as they would if FSU was still in the ACC, so they get SEC content for ACC money.

 

[Dawgg]

I seriously doubt there's anything at all to the FSU and Clemson part of this. Even if Big 10 could find a way to get around the grant of rights agreements (they can't), they'd be coming for North Carolina and Virginia.

Yeah, that part makes me think it's all just speculative BS. The only real advantages FSU and Clemson offer over UNC and UVA is that they're name brands in football and it firmly plants a Big Ten flag in SEC country.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Couple of things here:

- Travel costs seem to be out the window. You're still getting on the plane, taking off and landing. The cruising altitude part of the trip is the cheapest part. So around 800 miles to Oregon, or 2,200 miles to Pennsylvania. Does it really matter?
- I'm not buying the Clemson and Florida State thing, for reasons already discussed. Too many things there for it to actually happen. If the B1G ever comes to the southeast I think the first one they take is Miami.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

The big surprises here (and what makes me think this rumor might be BS) are Clemson and Florida State. They're both name brands, sure, but these two would be the first non-AAU admissions into the Big Ten and, to my knowledge, there have been no loopholes found in the ACC grant of rights.

Clemson is not in the AAU but that is a goal for them.

Specifically mentioned on Page 9 with details throughout:

https://media.clemson.edu/ows/web/pdfs/clemson-elevate-strategic-plan.pdf

 

[BigDawg0074]

The ACC schools aren’t going anywhere soon. Maybe someone heard a couple of PAC schools and exaggerated it with a couple of other big names to boot.

 

[Dawgg]

Clemson is not in the AAU but that is a goal for them.

Specifically mentioned on Page 9 with details throughout:

https://media.clemson.edu/ows/web/pdfs/clemson-elevate-strategic-plan.pdf

Interesting. I'm noting the timing they mention aligns with the end of the grant of rights in 2036, too.

I've tried looking it up, but I can't find any hard numbers on it and you would probably know better than a lot of us:
Do these conference academic groups like SECU really drive a lot of revenue to the schools through grants, research, corporate partnerships, etc., or is it just window dressing protecting the facade of the 'student-athlete'? Also, does having AAU schools in these shared research projects substantially increase that revenue?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Also, does having AAU schools in these shared research projects substantially increase that revenue?

Being an AAU opens more doors.

 

[Dawgg]

Couple of things here:

- Travel costs seem to be out the window. You're still getting on the plane, taking off and landing. The cruising altitude part of the trip is the cheapest part. So around 800 miles to Oregon, or 2,200 miles to Pennsylvania. Does it really matter?
- I'm not buying the Clemson and Florida State thing, for reasons already discussed. Too many things there for it to actually happen. If the B1G ever comes to the southeast I think the first one they take is Miami.

I get what you're saying on the travel costs, but it's also the travel time and I'm not talking about the weekly football trip. I'm also talking about mid-week basketball and all of those non-revenue sports. An article I read picked this out of USC's 2021 women's volleyball schedule: a trip to Colorado Nov. 5, then Utah Nov. 7, then Oregon Nov. 12 and Oregon State Nov. 14. Now... you start replacing that with Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, etc. and those extra 4-5 hours in the air start making a difference.

I think that's the SEC's biggest selling point over the Big Ten when it comes to UNC and UVA. They're not going to fly to both coasts in the same week unless they schedule an OOC game on the West Coast.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

Big 10 already shot down Oregon and Washington once.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

If AAU is a big sticking point, these are the P5 schools that are out there that you would think are available:

- Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, California, Utah from the PAC;
- Virginia, Pittsburgh, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina from the ACC;
- Colorado, South Florida, Kansas from the Big 12.

I also didn't know Florida, Missouri and Texas A&M were in there too. And of course you have Notre Dame. If I'm the B1G, do you make a play for Texas A&M? Talk about a splash, and you know they are angry at how things are going down at the moment.

I figured the USC and UCLA stuff was a rumor last year, but it happened. This one 'seems' pretty far-fetched, but who knows. I do know that I can't see a big bidding war between the SEC and B1G helping the game overall. I think if I'm B1G I just sit still right now, then go for the big market teams in good recruiting areas later on like Miami and Georgia Tech. Or does this whole Rose Bowl alliance thing win out, and they only add PAC teams?

 

[The Cooterpoot]

AZ and AZ St are already headed to the Big12. Utah might be.

 

[HumpDawgy]

Nebraska loses AAU status

This was from 2011, so Big 10 might be lenient on incoming non AAU schools. It's high stakes poker these days. No one wants to become the PAC 12.

 

[patdog]

The ACC schools aren’t going anywhere soon. Maybe someone heard a couple of PAC schools and exaggerated it with a couple of other big names to boot.

More likely someone is just completely pulling all 4 of those schools out of his a** and doesn't know anything. In fact, that's MUCH more likely.

 

[Dawgg]

If AAU is a big sticking point, these are the P5 schools that are out there that you would think are available:

- Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford, California, Utah from the PAC;
- Virginia, Pittsburgh, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina from the ACC;
- Colorado, South Florida, Kansas from the Big 12.

I also didn't know Florida, Missouri and Texas A&M were in there too. And of course you have Notre Dame. If I'm the B1G, do you make a play for Texas A&M? Talk about a splash, and you know they are angry at how things are going down at the moment.

I figured the USC and UCLA stuff was a rumor last year, but it happened. This one 'seems' pretty far-fetched, but who knows. I do know that I can't see a big bidding war between the SEC and B1G helping the game overall. I think if I'm B1G I just sit still right now, then go for the big market teams in good recruiting areas later on like Miami and Georgia Tech. Or does this whole Rose Bowl alliance thing win out, and they only add PAC teams?

Yep, for a long time, Florida and Vandy were the only AAU schools in the SEC. It was one of the big selling points for adding Missouri over West Virginia because along with A&M, it doubled the number of AAU schools in the SEC. Now, we're up to 5 with Texas joining. OU is not currently AAU.

I think Miami and Georgia Tech would strike the right balance for the Big Ten. They're both programs that could be good under the right leadership and they're both AAU schools. Plus, that puts the Big Ten right in the middle of SEC country.

 

[Dawgg]

Nebraska loses AAU status

This was from 2011, so Big 10 might be lenient on incoming non AAU schools. It's high stakes poker these days. No one wants to become the PAC 12.

Right... that happened after they joined. I don't know if the Big Ten knew it was imminent, but they were technically an AAU member when they were admitted to the Big Ten.

 

[Perd Hapley]

The grant of rights is more of an obstacle than the AAU thing. AAU membership is something that was certainly important to the B1G at one time, and I think they will perhaps publicly pretend that its still important. But its a really dumb high horse to try and still ride in this era of NIL and the portal, when its plainly obvious that none of the revenue sport athletes are selecting their schools for any academic reasons whatsoever…..and most all are hired guns with very little academic interest or commitment after they get there, also.

At this point, the B1G has to know the AAU status is a farce in regards to the big money sports, and if they’re smart they will stand down on it. Especially if they ever hope to catch the SEC as far as the product on the college football field is concerned.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

I get what you're saying on the travel costs, but it's also the travel time and I'm not talking about the weekly football trip. I'm also talking about mid-week basketball and all of those non-revenue sports. An article I read picked this out of USC's 2021 women's volleyball schedule: a trip to Colorado Nov. 5, then Utah Nov. 7, then Oregon Nov. 12 and Oregon State Nov. 14. Now... you start replacing that with Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, etc. and those extra 4-5 hours in the air start making a difference.

I think that's the SEC's biggest selling point over the Big Ten when it comes to UNC and UVA. They're not going to fly to both coasts in the same week unless they schedule an OOC game on the West Coast.

Not only that, but there's likely a semi that transports equipment and supplies right (for football)?

 

[Clay Lyle]

Last week, Clemson and FSU were the only ACC schools to express support for sharing TV revenue with players. They are trying to get their projected ACC payout as low as possible for the negotiated buyout. I don’t know how the results driven payout model affects their projections but that lowers it some too. Something is brewing for sure. My guess is the Big Ten rumor is a smokescreen for an 18-team SEC with Clemson and FSU. The August 15th date keeps coming up as deadline to leave the ACC in 2023.

 

[PBDog]

I usually bypass these because they seem so crazy, but I'm seeing enough of this specific one on Twitter to start a thread on it. The big rumor running right now is that the Big Ten is going to announce the addition of four teams this week:
Washington
Oregon
Clemson
Florida State

I wasn't surprised to see Washington and Oregon. They're both name brand AAU schools that could reduce travel costs for USC and UCLA and Colorado leaving last week put the writing on the wall for the rest of the Pac-12.

The big surprises here (and what makes me think this rumor might be BS) are Clemson and Florida State. They're both name brands, sure, but these two would be the first non-AAU admissions into the Big Ten and, to my knowledge, there have been no loopholes found in the ACC grant of rights. That being said, there's another rumor floating around that FSU has negotiated a $300 Million buyout of its grant of rights and a 10 year annual installment plan ($30 Million/year would be about half of what they would get from a Big Ten payout). If there is an outside chance this is true, I would call this an opening salvo from the Big Ten towards the SEC more than anything else.

I usually bypass these because they seem so crazy, but I'm seeing enough of this specific one on Twitter to start a thread on it. The big rumor running right now is that the Big Ten is going to announce the addition of four teams this week:
Washington
Oregon
Clemson
Florida State

I wasn't surprised to see Washington and Oregon. They're both name brand AAU schools that could reduce travel costs for USC and UCLA and Colorado leaving last week put the writing on the wall for the rest of the Pac-12.

The big surprises here (and what makes me think this rumor might be BS) are Clemson and Florida State. They're both name brands, sure, but these two would be the first non-AAU admissions into the Big Ten and, to my knowledge, there have been no loopholes found in the ACC grant of rights. That being said, there's another rumor floating around that FSU has negotiated a $300 Million buyout of its grant of rights and a 10 year annual installment plan ($30 Million/year would be about half of what they would get from a Big Ten payout). If there is an outside chance this is true, I would call this an opening salvo from the Big Ten towards the SEC more than anything else.

fsu and clemson?? ridiculous

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Yep, for a long time, Florida and Vandy were the only AAU schools in the SEC. It was one of the big selling points for adding Missouri over West Virginia because along with A&M, it doubled the number of AAU schools in the SEC. Now, we're up to 5 with Texas joining. OU is not currently AAU.

I think Miami and Georgia Tech would strike the right balance for the Big Ten. They're both programs that could be good under the right leadership and they're both AAU schools. Plus, that puts the Big Ten right in the middle of SEC country.

The grant of rights is more of an obstacle than the AAU thing. AAU membership is something that was certainly important to the B1G at one time, and I think they will perhaps publicly pretend that its still important. But its a really dumb high horse to try and still ride in this era of NIL and the portal, when its plainly obvious that none of the revenue sport athletes are selecting their schools for any academic reasons whatsoever…..and most all are hired guns with very little academic interest or commitment after they get there, also.

At this point, the B1G has to know the AAU status is a farce in regards to the big money sports, and if they’re smart they will stand down on it. Especially if they ever hope to catch the SEC as far as the product on the college football field is concerned.

They aren't catching the SEC anytime soon, at least as far as depth. Sure, they can maybe match up an Ohio State (or a USC, in the future) against the SEC in playoff games, but overall depth of conference it's not really close. Look what happened to Michigan and Michigan State. So I could see them going with the academic 'theme', plus they have a TON of alumni from those schools. It definitely is big picture thinking and that's something that the B1G is about 50/50 on. Rutgers and Maryland were short term (and maybe even Nebraska - and wow I just noticed that they lost AAU accreditation, so who knows), but USC/UCLA were definitely forward thinking.

Lot of decisions. And if Clemson was there when they expanded, and were on course to be AAU, you'd have to get them. Talk about a heck of an addition, along with Miami and Georgia Tech. And who knows how far this goes, if you're headed toward more than 20 teams, it's a no-brainer. I'd take Oregon and Washington too, in a heartbeat. Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Cal and Stanford would be the next route. This could go on forever. SEC would get FSU, NC State, Virginia Tech for starters, but then you may be stuck.

ETA: While TV rights has been the driver of this up to now, I would imagine athlete compensation will be a big part of it going forward. The Big 2 will do it, obviously. The rest of the schools will ultimately have decide a few things in regards to that, are we willing, and do we get a shot even if we are?

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Not only that, but there's likely a semi that transports equipment and supplies right (for football)?

No way they drive a truck from LA to anywhere in the current B1G. You understand that airplanes can carry cargo, right?

 

[LordMcBuckethead]

I usually bypass these because they seem so crazy, but I'm seeing enough of this specific one on Twitter to start a thread on it. The big rumor running right now is that the Big Ten is going to announce the addition of four teams this week:
Washington
Oregon
Clemson
Florida State

I wasn't surprised to see Washington and Oregon. They're both name brand AAU schools that could reduce travel costs for USC and UCLA and Colorado leaving last week put the writing on the wall for the rest of the Pac-12.

The big surprises here (and what makes me think this rumor might be BS) are Clemson and Florida State. They're both name brands, sure, but these two would be the first non-AAU admissions into the Big Ten and, to my knowledge, there have been no loopholes found in the ACC grant of rights. That being said, there's another rumor floating around that FSU has negotiated a $300 Million buyout of its grant of rights and a 10 year annual installment plan ($30 Million/year would be about half of what they would get from a Big Ten payout). If there is an outside chance this is true, I would call this an opening salvo from the Big Ten towards the SEC more than anything else.

Can they change the stupid *** name of their conference. Big 10 or 12. Both dumb now that they have 14-16 teams.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

No way they drive a truck from LA to anywhere in the current B1G. You understand that airplanes can carry cargo, right?

Just seen semi's with the visiting teams logo outside of DW when the visiting team and coaches flew.

I've always figured it was done that way as a redundancy. There is only so much cargo space on a charted jet (they're not flying C5s or 17s) and SEC teams transport and lot of gear to away football games.

Although, oxygen, generators, large batteries etc., can be transported by air, it does require clearing some hurtles.

 

[Dawgg]

No way they drive a truck from LA to anywhere in the current B1G. You understand that airplanes can carry cargo, right?

So, another plane to carry the team and the equipment, which would be additional travel costs.

I found this article on some of the logistics:

Freight All Kinds - The logistics of a college football game

College football season is about to start (YES!!!). This article focuses on the logistics of moving a college team's equipment from its home location to an away game.

www.freightwaves.com

The thing that was really eye opening for me was a post on twitter where somebody did a really rough map of UCLA’s travel schedule in 2023 vs 2024:



I think it ends up being a difference of something like 20,000 miles.

 

[patdog]

So, another plane to carry the team and the equipment, which would be additional travel costs.

I found this article on some of the logistics:

Freight All Kinds - The logistics of a college football game

College football season is about to start (YES!!!). This article focuses on the logistics of moving a college team's equipment from its home location to an away game.

www.freightwaves.com

The thing that was really eye opening for me was a post on twitter where somebody did a really rough map of UCLA’s travel schedule in 2023 vs 2024:
View attachment 375386
View attachment 375388

I think it ends up being a difference of something like 20,000 miles.

That's just football. Now multiply that by 25. Actually, more like 50 since most every other sport plays a lot more games than football plays.

 

[Xenomorph]

I wasn't surprised to see Washington and Oregon. They're both name brand AAU schools that could reduce travel costs for USC and UCLA

Los Angeles to Seattle is farther than Starkville to NYC.

/Though I'd argue that Starkville to NYC is further than Los Angeles to Seattle.

 

[patdog]

Los Angeles to Seattle is farther than Starkville to NYC.

/Though I'd argue that Starkville to NYC is further than Los Angeles to Seattle.

LA to Seattle is still 400 miles closer than the nearest current Big 10 school. And 1,300 miles closer than the furthest.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

So, another plane to carry the team and the equipment, which would be additional travel costs.

I found this article on some of the logistics:

Freight All Kinds - The logistics of a college football game

College football season is about to start (YES!!!). This article focuses on the logistics of moving a college team's equipment from its home location to an away game.

www.freightwaves.com

The thing that was really eye opening for me was a post on twitter where somebody did a really rough map of UCLA’s travel schedule in 2023 vs 2024:
View attachment 375386
View attachment 375388

I think it ends up being a difference of something like 20,000 miles.

I guess it's possible they load up a truck to go that far. Seems nuts to me.

At least the other sports don't have near the cargo.

 

[Dawgg]

I guess it's possible they load up a truck and drive cross country. Seems crazy to me.

Good news is, the other sports won't have to do it.

In that article I linked, USC referenced sending additional teams when they travel cross country to play Notre Dame. I agree it seems like a crazy system, but it's considered the standard.

I was also thinking about the 'drive the team bus to the location' method that schools employ so they can drive the team to the stadium or arena from the hotel in a school branded bus. They may need to consider renting locally if these crazy country-wide conferences continue.

 

[Dawgg]

Los Angeles to Seattle is farther than Starkville to NYC.

/Though I'd argue that Starkville to NYC is further than Los Angeles to Seattle.

Fair enough, but it's still a damn sight closer than Los Angeles to Piscataway, NJ, where UCLA and USC will have conference games in 2024 and 2025 against Rutgers.

 

[Perd Hapley]

They aren't catching the SEC anytime soon, at least as far as depth. Sure, they can maybe match up an Ohio State (or a USC, in the future) against the SEC in playoff games, but overall depth of conference it's not really close.

Its not just the depth. They aren’t catching the SEC at the top tier, either. Not even OSU or USC. This ain’t 2001 anymore. Ever since Ohio State had their 2014 CFP run, its been nothing short of disaster for their top tier teams against everyone….especially the SEC.

Could go on all day about this….for the CFP’s that followed the 2015-2018 seasons (4 wholeyears), the Big 10 as an entire conference failed to score a point in a CFP game. 2 years they missed entirely, the other 2 years they had one team make it each time that got shut out.

No B1G team besides Ohio State has ever won a CFP game. And even Ohio State has a losing CFP record. No B1G team has won the CFP in almost a decade. Only been two Big 10 teams winning the title (both Ohio State) in the past quarter century when going back to BCS as well. And USC isn’t even worth mentioning. They haven’t won a legit NC that wasn’t vacated in 40 or 50 years.

Ultimately, B1G has a big geography problem with the athletes they recruit that can only be solved by substantially breaking into the SEC’s footprint and getting those Miami, FSU, Clemson type schools. They can’t be choosy with this AAU bullcrap if they are serious about it. If they add ALL of the remaining PAC 12 schools, and add ALL of the ACC schools from North Carolina on up, and everyone else goes SEC from the ACC, the SEC will just keep shutting them out of the natty trophy case, in spite of being greatly outnumbered. It won’t matter how big their TV deal gets.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Its not just the depth. They aren’t catching the SEC at the top tier, either. Not even OSU or USC. This ain’t 2001 anymore. Ever since Ohio State had their 2014 CFP run, its been nothing short of disaster for their top tier teams against everyone….especially the SEC.

Could go on all day about this….for the CFP’s that followed the 2015-2018 seasons (4 wholeyears), the Big 10 as an entire conference failed to score a point in a CFP game. 2 years they missed entirely, the other 2 years they had one team make it each time that got shut out.

No B1G team besides Ohio State has ever won a CFP game. And even Ohio State has a losing CFP record. No B1G team has won the CFP in almost a decade. Only been two Big 10 teams winning the title (both Ohio State) in the past quarter century when going back to BCS as well. And USC isn’t even worth mentioning. They haven’t won a legit NC that wasn’t vacated in 40 or 50 years.

Ultimately, B1G has a big geography problem with the athletes they recruit that can only be solved by substantially breaking into the SEC’s footprint and getting those Miami, FSU, Clemson type schools. They can’t be choosy with this AAU bullcrap if they are serious about it. If they add ALL of the remaining PAC 12 schools, and add ALL of the ACC schools from North Carolina on up, and everyone else goes SEC from the ACC, the SEC will just keep shutting them out of the natty trophy case, in spite of being greatly outnumbered. It won’t matter how big their TV deal gets.

I generally agree with you, so I don't mean this in an argumentative way - but Ohio State was an eyelash from beating Georgia last year. Even Smart admits they got lucky. Ohio is a good recruiting area, as is Pennsylvania. I think they will be fine. USC and UCLA have southern California as well. The rest - yeah I agree.

 

[L4Dawg]

Rumors on Twitter say that Arizona will announce their move to the Big 12 within two weeks. The same rumor says ASU isn't going to move that fast, if at all.

 

[Clay Lyle]

Brett Yormark wants to be a disrupter. I won’t be shocked if he adds Arizona, ASU, Utah, Oregon, and Washington and go to 18 in football. Add Gonzaga and UCONN in all sports but football. Give UCONN a deal like Notre Dame in the ACC. Let the remaining four PAC teams join the Mountain West.

 

[patdog]

Rumors on Twitter say that Arizonia will announce. their move to the Big 12 within two weeks. The same rumor says ASU isn't going to move that fast, if at all.

ASU is making a big mistake if they don’t jump at the chance to join the Big 12. I suspect the Big 12 is slow playing them. If they could get Oregon, Washington, Utah & Stanford, they’d be at 18 teams and not want ASU. Big 10 hasn’t showed they want any of those schools so far. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.