Mangum~
- Thread starter tbaydog
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If he doesn’t make a MLB Roster this year , next step Hitting Coach MSU.
Next stop ____ MSU Baseball Coach. I want him on the staff... Somewhere!!
Don’t hire your heros
Moreso than any other recent State player I want Jake to make the big show. He's good enough to play at that level and stick. Just got to find the right time and place.
but he isnt. He's 28 years old and hasnt been in the bigs yet. He was an OLD draft pick and has never been able to even be more than an average player at all levels moving up... he's had a high batting average at places but thats it, he's got a career OPS under 800. He's been in 4 organizations. He's basically the defintion of minor league depth at this point. Hopefully for him he gets that cup of coffee at some point, but he'll never stick on a MLB roster.
This will be his 3rd season at AAA. Meaning with all the injuries, roster expansions, etc he's never gotten the call. Prospects and people that are going to stick in the bigs dont take that path.
Below is an example of Jake Mangum’s biggest obstacle to get to the big leagues. This is a career comparison of 2 players’ career stats at the AAA level, over a very sufficient sample size (3 seasons and 100+ games for each).
From just looking at these numbers, you’ll first note that these players are fairly similar at the plate. But objectively, Player A has a higher average than Player B. Player A has more power than Player B. Player A has a higher OPS than Player B. I’ll spare the next statistical comparison, but Player A was also a far better college hitter than Player B, at the same level of competition, although Player B was still pretty good there.
Player A is Jake Mangum. He’s hit very well at every level he’s been at. He’s been in the Top 2 or 3 in OPS on his AAA team pretty much his entire career. His offensive numbers by themselves are plenty enough to be a regular MLB player. He does have some weaknesses of course. He doesn’t draw a ton of walks. Never has, of course, which is something that it seems his pro managers have not tried to coach out of him too much. His K rate is fine, but a bit higher than you’d like to see from a guy who isn’t a threat to hit 40-50 HR’s. But overall, still capable of being an average to above average MLB hitter, if given the chance.
So, what about Player B? Player B has had a 9 year MLB career, with offensive numbers that have generally paled in comparison to his AAA numbers. Nothing special. But, he’s stayed up in the show the whole time. You figure out who Player B is, and that will tell you why Jake hasn’t made it, and how razor thin the margin is between a long, successful MLB career and a guy who maybe gets a cup of coffee but has a hard time staying up. I’m pretty confident someone here can figure out who he is.
From just looking at these numbers, you’ll first note that these players are fairly similar at the plate. But objectively, Player A has a higher average than Player B. Player A has more power than Player B. Player A has a higher OPS than Player B. I’ll spare the next statistical comparison, but Player A was also a far better college hitter than Player B, at the same level of competition, although Player B was still pretty good there.
Player A is Jake Mangum. He’s hit very well at every level he’s been at. He’s been in the Top 2 or 3 in OPS on his AAA team pretty much his entire career. His offensive numbers by themselves are plenty enough to be a regular MLB player. He does have some weaknesses of course. He doesn’t draw a ton of walks. Never has, of course, which is something that it seems his pro managers have not tried to coach out of him too much. His K rate is fine, but a bit higher than you’d like to see from a guy who isn’t a threat to hit 40-50 HR’s. But overall, still capable of being an average to above average MLB hitter, if given the chance.
So, what about Player B? Player B has had a 9 year MLB career, with offensive numbers that have generally paled in comparison to his AAA numbers. Nothing special. But, he’s stayed up in the show the whole time. You figure out who Player B is, and that will tell you why Jake hasn’t made it, and how razor thin the margin is between a long, successful MLB career and a guy who maybe gets a cup of coffee but has a hard time staying up. I’m pretty confident someone here can figure out who he is.
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Worth nothing as well that the rays have 5 outfielders on their roster now and they currently have 2 on the IL, one of those being one of their best guys.
so they have 7 outfielders on their 40 man.. considering Theyd have to make a roster move to get him on the 40 man before they could even think about playing him is a huge hurdle.
seeing that they quit allowing teams to expand their rosters to 40 in September. Mangums best avenue to the bigs is a lot of injuries or a trade
so they have 7 outfielders on their 40 man.. considering Theyd have to make a roster move to get him on the 40 man before they could even think about playing him is a huge hurdle.
seeing that they quit allowing teams to expand their rosters to 40 in September. Mangums best avenue to the bigs is a lot of injuries or a trade
Ha - nice reference.
Player B is Adam Frazier.
Very similar types of players at the plate. But Mangum has been a better hitter than Frazier at every level that they have both played for a substantial period of time. Not by a huge amount, but objectively and solidly better. And he comes with the added bonus of being a switch hitter. I firmly believe he’d outproduce Frazier’s MLB numbers at the plate, if given the chance.
BUT, Frazier has made the show and stayed in the show. Why? Because he plays the 3 outfield positions, too. But he can also play every other position on the diamond, except pitcher or catcher. He’s played multiple MLB games at every position on the field except 1B and C. And he’s not elite at any of them….been nominated for a Gold Glove just once in 9 years, and didn’t win it. But he’s competent or above average at all of them. That’s huge.
That’s the razor thin margin. With Jake, its not his age, or his approach, or his lack of power / exit velocity / etc., or his arm strength or his outfield defense capability or any of that. He’s ultimately not up there because he can’t field a ground ball. That’s the difference. There’s a much larger swath of players that can play outfield / 1B / DH than play infield at an MLB level, so franchise are always going to look for guys who can rake hard in those spots in the lineup. Jake can hit at an MLB level and play outfield at an MLB level (all 3 positions), but he can’t hit at the level of MLB outfielders in this new analytics driven era. So he’s kind of in no-man’s land.
Jake’s profile is one that would be very, very valuable if he could just play 2B or 3B in the late innings or something. He’d have a huge opportunity there. Maybe he’s tried it out, not sure. I still think he makes it at some point to at least get the cup of coffee. But I think he’d have to come in guns a-blazing to stay up for a good while.
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True. So yeah, certainly hasn’t tried it. No man’s land, indeed.
It’s worth noting that the Rays current starting outfielders have career OPS numbers of .800, .709, and .704….all over 5 or 6 years plus of MLB service. Certainly nothing to write home about, there. So its certainly not impossible for him to make it just as an outfielder. But he’d more or less need to keep up his current AAA production at the MLB level in order to feel good about staying up.
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Definitely is. Agree that he’s got tools, but those tools don’t equate to being an mlb outfielder. Unfortunately that’s all he can play.
hope he gets a cup, but looks like a long shot for that cup to be with the rays.
had he been with one club battling in the minors all these years he could maybe get the ol we appreciate what you’ve done cup or coffee. Fact he’s been with 4 teams already, probably eliminates that option as well
also sucks for him because it doesn’t seem like he can play his way to the bigs. He had a very good spring and didn’t even get added to the 4o man. That’s a pretty big nail in the coffin
misleading:Their 3 and 4 hole hitters are worth writing home about.
Arozarena was a ROY and All-Star, 20+ homer guy, who hits 3rd, 120 OPS+, 20 bags as well
Lowe whose hurt is another 20+ homer guy, 30 steals guy, 129 OPS+, who hits 4th
Siri is their 3rd guy who hit 25 homers in 300 at bats last season.
and they have other pieces of the puzzle that can platoon in and out when needed. OPS is misleading at the big league level, have to look at OPS plus.
Jake in over 600 at bats at the AAA level has hit 8 homers, his zips projections over the next 3 seasons have him at barely a break even AAA player-- the numbers just dont add up. He would have an incredible amount of improvement which at his age is unlikley. Best possible case scenario is for him to get his cup of coffee and play a few weeks in the bigs.
Hes one of those classic players that will likely keep a job as long as he wants it. Will have a very productive 6-10 year minor league career. But just doesnt have that spot, skill, niche, etc to break thru and be a big leaguer. He provides great minor league depth, and probably his work ethic and leadership skills make him someone that organziations want around younger kids.. which again will allow him to play minor league ball as long as he wants.....
you just hope guys like him gets their cup of coffee, but unfortunately, most dont.
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Yeah he’s certainly no Arozorena.
But the OPS+ for Siri / Rosario isn’t very impressive, either (95/96). And I’m assuming that the other guys on roster are just lesser versions of those two, or platoon guys who have better numbers but aren’t ever used in bad matchups for their bat.
Regardless, I think we’re saying the same thing. A lengthy call up could be a long shot.
I always thought Jake’s ace in the hole was being a switch hitter. But with the expanded rosters it really makes that skill not nearly as valuable as it used to be, with so many spots available for platooning. It’s kind of ironic that something like expanded rosters that you’d think would help more fringe players make it to the show actually hurts the chances of the fringe player that is Jake Mangum.
Of course, there are worse fates than being one of the best players on your AAA team. Especially since they bumped up their salaries a few years ago. You’re still one of the best 200-300 baseball players at your position in the world, pretty good pay, and more regional travel to give you some more family time. Jake will be fine either way.
I have said it before. I just don't think Jake makes it. But he has such leadership ability, that he should consider coaching. I do believe that if he put in his time doing that we would see him in a dugout in Omaha again.
This is why I suggested him as a coach, not because he's my hero. All my baseball heroes played professional baseball.
When I worked for the Braves they always told me you never wanted to end up in triple A as a player. It meant that you were still a project or they were going to end up trading you around. You always wanted to go from 2A straight up.
To me the fatal flaw in his game, when you factor in the fact that he’s never going to be a big slugging % guy, is that he’s never been a high OBP guy. If you’re not gonna be a threat to hit home runs and extra base hits, you better be able to get on base in the high .300’s. I think he’d already be up on a team if he could improve that. Not a huge use for a guy that hits .300 but only has an OBP of .350
I’ll again revert to the Adam Frazier comparison. Frazier’s career MLB OBP is .331….not great. He also isn’t a big slug % guy at all. But he gets by with it because of defensive versatility. Mangum has an a traditional infielder’s hitting profile (better than Frazier’s) but he’s stuck in an outfielder’s body. If he threw RH and could play 2B / 3B, he might already be an All-Star by now.
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