Match Notes for Rider Dual

[Tom McAndrew]

courtesy of GoPSUsports.com

NOTES: No.1 Penn State Hosts Rider in Final Dual Meet of the Regular Season

The Penn State Nittany Lion wrestling team (16-0, 8-0 B1G) will close out the regular season by hosting Rider (4-8) on Sunday, Feb. 20, at 2 p.m. in Rec Hall. The Nittany Lions, off last weekend, last wrestled on Feb. 4 and 6, winning duals over Ohio State and Nebraska to clinch the 2022 Big Ten...

gopsusports.com

 

[pabison]

courtesy of GoPSUsports.com

NOTES: No.1 Penn State Hosts Rider in Final Dual Meet of the Regular Season

The Penn State Nittany Lion wrestling team (16-0, 8-0 B1G) will close out the regular season by hosting Rider (4-8) on Sunday, Feb. 20, at 2 p.m. in Rec Hall. The Nittany Lions, off last weekend, last wrestled on Feb. 4 and 6, winning duals over Ohio State and Nebraska to clinch the 2022 Big Ten...

gopsusports.com

What??? No mention of Berge at 157???

 

[WV lion]

What??? No mention of Berge at 157???

You will know on Sunday if the crowd goes nuts at the 157 introductions

 

[Still in State Colllege]

I am going with Berge at 165. I think it would be better for PSU to have him at 157 and Edsell at 165. It isn't like Edsell has better wins than anyone at 157 it is more that he has wins unlike 157 (9 vs 5). Berge has already shown he can AA at 157. If I look at 165 I think his ceiling is 7/8

 

[SonnyAbeFan]

I am going with Berge at 165. I think it would be better for PSU to have him at 157 and Edsell at 165. It isn't like Edsell has better wins than anyone at 157 it is more that he has wins unlike 157 (9 vs 5). Berge has already shown he can AA at 157. If I look at 165 I think his ceiling is 7/8

But remember (and I’m out of my league when it comes to seedings), Berge is projected to be a 27-33 seed at 157 even if he was B1G champion. If he loses, he likely does not get at large entry. (Again, others better suited to state Berge’s 157 scenarios.)

 

[Fink26]

The key for Berge is getting 1 win this weekend so that he can get to 5 matches and get a coaches ranking. Then he would have wrestled at least 4 at Big Tens if he were to qualify by finishing top 7. At least 5 matches gets you a coaches rank and that coupled with the 2 or even 3 quality wins that likely would be needed to place at Big Tens should move his seed up.

Big Ten champ with at least 5 wins would have to have beaten 3-4 top 15 wrestlers. My best guess is that that would likely get a coaches ranking in the Top 10, which would result in a top 10 seed. A second place finish would mean 3-1 at Big Tens with a couple good wins and would likely get a top 15 seed. Third would be 4-1 and probably Top 20, 4th would be 4-2 and likely be high teens or low twenties. Beyond that 5-7 would likely result in 24-33 seed.

Seeds are done by comparing each of the 33 wrestlers in the bracket against each other using 7 criteria. Each wrestler then gets a "record" with the seeds going in order of those records. The following are the criteria: 1-Head to Head 25 pts (split 12/5 each if no match); 2-Quality Wins 20 pts. (split 15/5 if both have wins over someone in the field based on a calculation as to who has more quality win points), 3-Coaches Ranking 15 points, 4-RPI 10 points (need 15 matches to have one so Berge will lose this criteria to everyone), 5-Winning % 10 points (need 8 matches so another category that will go to the other wrestler), 6-Record vs. Common Opponents 10 points (will be split 5/5 with all non-Big 10 wrestlers since there will not be any common opponents) and 7-Conference Tourney Placement 10 points.

Thus, a 3rd place finish means a split of HTH (12.5), a QW advantage over 1/4-1/3 of the field (15), a coaches ranking above 15-20 wrestlers (15 points), 4 RPI (0), Winning % (0), Common Opp. (5) and Conference Placement (10 over about 14 wrestlers and 5/5 split with 5 or 6).

 

[Karl_Havok]

What??? No mention of Berge at 157???

This looks like a copy and paste from the last few match notes. I thought CStar was out until B1Gs? He is the only one listed at 174lbs. I wouldn't put too much stock in these match notes.

 

[SonnyAbeFan]

The key for Berge is getting 1 win this weekend so that he can get to 5 matches and get a coaches ranking. Then he would have wrestled at least 4 at Big Tens if he were to qualify by finishing top 7. At least 5 matches gets you a coaches rank and that coupled with the 2 or even 3 quality wins that likely would be needed to place at Big Tens should move his seed up.

Big Ten champ with at least 5 wins would have to have beaten 3-4 top 15 wrestlers. My best guess is that that would likely get a coaches ranking in the Top 10, which would result in a top 10 seed. A second place finish would mean 3-1 at Big Tens with a couple good wins and would likely get a top 15 seed. Third would be 4-1 and probably Top 20, 4th would be 4-2 and likely be high teens or low twenties. Beyond that 5-7 would likely result in 24-33 seed.

Seeds are done by comparing each of the 33 wrestlers in the bracket against each other using 7 criteria. Each wrestler then gets a "record" with the seeds going in order of those records. The following are the criteria: 1-Head to Head 25 pts (split 12/5 each if no match); 2-Quality Wins 20 pts. (split 15/5 if both have wins over someone in the field based on a calculation as to who has more quality win points), 3-Coaches Ranking 15 points, 4-RPI 10 points (need 15 matches to have one so Berge will lose this criteria to everyone), 5-Winning % 10 points (need 8 matches so another category that will go to the other wrestler), 6-Record vs. Common Opponents 10 points (will be split 5/5 with all non-Big 10 wrestlers since there will not be any common opponents) and 7-Conference Tourney Placement 10 points.

Thus, a 3rd place finish means a split of HTH (12.5), a QW advantage over 1/4-1/3 of the field (15), a coaches ranking above 15-20 wrestlers (15 points), 4 RPI (0), Winning % (0), Common Opp. (5) and Conference Placement (10 over about 14 wrestlers and 5/5 split with 5 or 6).

This is awesome, but this assumes 165, correct? If he goes 157, then it’s a whole different ballgame, right?

 

[Fink26]

No, that was for 157. At 165, he could get to 8 matches and have a winning %. There are a lot of assumptions (but fairly reasonable ones). The keys are (1) finishing top 7 (I am predicting 7 allocations for the Big 10 so long as both Kaleb Young and Peyton Robb wrestle Sunday) to get an automatic qualifier (2) to finish top 7 needs 2 to 3 wins, (3) assumes a low seed at Big Tens, which means wins over top 7 guys like Coleman, Young, Robb, Lewan, Model, Deakin and/or Saldate to take one of their spots; and (4) with a couple wins over top 15 wrestlers and 5 total bouts, the coaches could and hopefully would give a solid rank.

It is tough to find a perfect comparison. Joe Smith qualified in 2019 as 5th place at Big12s with a 5-2 record and was seeded 33. HIs problem was none of those 5 wins were against a qualifier. Thus, he had no RPI (0), no winning % (0), no quality wins (0), no common opp. wins (5) and no HTH wins (12.5) so he lost the seeding battle to everyone.

In 2019, Nick Gravina of Rutgers went 6-3 and finished 6th at Big Tens. He was seeded 21. Because he had 9 decisions, he had a winning percentage but he also beat 3 qualifiers, splitting with 25 seed Max Lyon and 22 seed Reinhardt and beating 19 seed Caffey.

 

[SonnyAbeFan]

No, that was for 157. At 165, he could get to 8 matches and have a winning %. There are a lot of assumptions (but fairly reasonable ones). The keys are (1) finishing top 7 (I am predicting 7 allocations for the Big 10 so long as both Kaleb Young and Peyton Robb wrestle Sunday) to get an automatic qualifier (2) to finish top 7 needs 2 to 3 wins, (3) assumes a low seed at Big Tens, which means wins over top 7 guys like Coleman, Young, Robb, Lewan, Model, Deakin and/or Saldate to take one of their spots; and (4) with a couple wins over top 15 wrestlers and 5 total bouts, the coaches could and hopefully would give a solid rank.

It is tough to find a perfect comparison. Joe Smith qualified in 2019 as 5th place at Big12s with a 5-2 record and was seeded 33. HIs problem was none of those 5 wins were against a qualifier. Thus, he had no RPI (0), no winning % (0), no quality wins (0), no common opp. wins (5) and no HTH wins (12.5) so he lost the seeding battle to everyone.

In 2019, Nick Gravina of Rutgers went 6-3 and finished 6th at Big Tens. He was seeded 21. Because he had 9 decisions, he had a winning percentage but he also beat 3 qualifiers, splitting with 25 seed Max Lyon and 22 seed Reinhardt and beating 19 seed Caffey.

My apologies. Thanks for clarifying. Great insight!

 

[SonnyAbeFan]

No, that was for 157. At 165, he could get to 8 matches and have a winning %. There are a lot of assumptions (but fairly reasonable ones). The keys are (1) finishing top 7 (I am predicting 7 allocations for the Big 10 so long as both Kaleb Young and Peyton Robb wrestle Sunday) to get an automatic qualifier (2) to finish top 7 needs 2 to 3 wins, (3) assumes a low seed at Big Tens, which means wins over top 7 guys like Coleman, Young, Robb, Lewan, Model, Deakin and/or Saldate to take one of their spots; and (4) with a couple wins over top 15 wrestlers and 5 total bouts, the coaches could and hopefully would give a solid rank.

It is tough to find a perfect comparison. Joe Smith qualified in 2019 as 5th place at Big12s with a 5-2 record and was seeded 33. HIs problem was none of those 5 wins were against a qualifier. Thus, he had no RPI (0), no winning % (0), no quality wins (0), no common opp. wins (5) and no HTH wins (12.5) so he lost the seeding battle to everyone.

In 2019, Nick Gravina of Rutgers went 6-3 and finished 6th at Big Tens. He was seeded 21. Because he had 9 decisions, he had a winning percentage but he also beat 3 qualifiers, splitting with 25 seed Max Lyon and 22 seed Reinhardt and beating 19 seed Caffey.

I must admit that I just sit back and wait to see how it all shakes out, but my perspective was framed by the following:

 

[Still in State Colllege]

I am going with Berge at 165. I think it would be better for PSU to have him at 157 and Edsell at 165. It isn't like Edsell has better wins than anyone at 157 it is more that he has wins unlike 157 (9 vs 5). Berge has already shown he can AA at 157. If I look at 165 I think his ceiling is 7/8

All of what you say is why I ultimately think he goes 165. AS has been outlined the 157 trip to nationals is pretty steep. If he could be an 8-12 seed at 157 you are talking a different story.

As they say we will know soon enough.