Minshew/Rogers

[messageboardsuperhero]

Let’s take a look at Will Rogers’s stats and compare to Gardner Minshew’s stats through four games.

Rogers
169/225 75.1% completion % 1,454 yards 11/2 TD/INT 143.7 Passer rating

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/will-rogers-1/gamelog/2021/

Minshew
154/217 71.0% completion % 1,547 yards 11/3 TD/INT 144.8 Passer rating

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/gardner-minshew-1/gamelog/2018/

Minshew’s four opponents were Wyoming, San Jose State, Eastern Washington, and USC. So competition level is pretty similar. Wild that those QB numbers (playing very similar competition) got WSU 41.8 PPG in those four games. The biggest difference? WSU had 9 rushing TDs in those games and we only have 3. When they got close, WSU did not hesitate to run the ball in.

It also hurts that we have lost five fumbles in four games already, while WSU only lost four fumbles all season. Backs and receivers have got to hold on to the ball.

All this to say- Will Rogers is leaving some plays on the field. He has not been perfect. But he is still a young player and compares very favorably to Gardner Minshew when Minshew was a fifth year senior and Heisman finalist. He is getting too much criticism from some, IMO.

 

[paindonthurt_]

Get out of here.

Will Rodgers sucks and it’s all on him *****

 

[Cooterpoot]

Minshew had one good year. And it wasn't in the SEC.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

One real good year. 11 and 2 finished ranked #10 in the country. I would take it and so would you

 

[Cooterpoot]

One real good year. 11 and 2 finished ranked #10 in the country. I would take it and so eould you

Look who he beat...lots of really marginal teams. Look at what he did before that one year.

 

[o_Ernest T]

How do the rushing yards compare?

 

[Ralph Cramden]

He won a championship at NWCC the year before. He was busy doing a lot of winning that culminated with beating a Minnesota junior college 66 to 13 for the championship. You may have missed that game.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Minshew had one good year. And it wasn't in the SEC.

Minshew had a GREAT season. He had a better season than any QB we have ever had, except the one starting for Dallas right now.

Are you really suggesting that a guy who is a solid NFL QB would not have been a successful SEC QB?

I know everyone here thinks every SEC team is the 85 Bears and anyone else that plays football has never heard of defense… But last time I checked, if you are good enough to have a 37/11 TD/INT ratio in the National 17ing Football League, you are good enough to be a quality SEC QB.

 

[Go Budaw]

I actually wouldn’t say that competition between those two is similar at all. The best team on that list for Minshew is USC. That team finished 5-7 in the horrible PAC 12. Both LSU and NC State would likely beat the brakes off that team, and I’d take La Tech and Memphis each being 2+ TD’s better than those other 3 scrubs as well.

 

[85Bears]

I watched every game Minshew played at WSU, LMAO

Minshew could make all the throws, was mobile with good quickness, could instinctively feel the pass rush and would make instant decisions rarely turning it over.

this may be the most ridiculous thread ive ever seen.


the offense is just too easy to defend when the QB can’t throw it further than 20 yards , has very slow feet , is indecisive and hangs on to the ball too long and can’t see open receivers.

Minshew was also a 5th year senior and was very confident. watch some of his highlights starting for the Jaguars , just a ridiculous comparison.

Right now there are several sunbelt QBs which would be major upgrades over Rogers.

i think Rogers is a good teammate and would be a good veteran backup as an upperclassman, but he really is not a starter at this level.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

I actually wouldn’t say that competition between those two is similar at all. The best team on that list for Minshew is USC. That team finished 5-7 in the horrible PAC 12. Both LSU and NC State would likely beat the brakes off that team, and I’d take La Tech and Memphis each being 2+ TD’s better than those other 3 scrubs as well.

I agree that Rogers has faced better competition to this point but was just trying to be fair in my comparison.

Rogers has been far from our biggest problem to this point. He is playing pretty good football all things considered.

 

[paindonthurt_]

So right now that makes wills stats all the more impressive against a top half lsu defense.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Look who he beat...lots of really marginal teams. Look at what he did before that one year.

He beat 9-5 Utah, 9-4 Oregon, 9-4 Stanford, and 8-5 Iowa State. He went 11-2 with the least talented roster in that league.

And how about what he’s done since then? Minshew is going to be on an NFL roster for a long time. He is clearly a good QB. He would have been a successful SEC QB in the right scheme.

 

[047Dog]

I watched every game Minshew played at WSU, LMAO

Minshew could make all the throws, was mobile with good quickness, could instinctively feel the pass rush and would make instant decisions rarely turning it over.

this may be the most ridiculous thread ive ever seen.


the offense is just too easy to defend when the QB can’t throw it further than 20 yards , has very slow feet , is indecisive and hangs on to the ball too long and can’t see open receivers.

Minshew was also a 5th year senior and was very confident. watch some of his highlights starting for the Jaguars , just a ridiculous comparison.

Right now there are several sunbelt QBs which would be major upgrades over Rogers.

i think Rogers is a good teammate and would be a good veteran backup as an upperclassman, but he really is not a starter at this level.

I also don’t think Rogers would be a starter on at least half the teams in the Sun Belt. He’s probably a good 7v7 QB but he doesn’t see plays developing on a big boy college football field

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

There is something else those numbers show. Minshew is 10.1 yds per completion. Rogers is 8.6 yards per completion. Doesn't seem like much, but across a game that's 1-2 drives that fall just short of a conversion and turn into a punt.

Repeating myself from an earlier thread. In his entire head coaching career, Leach has had 2 teams finish a season with < 10 yards per completion. 2017 Wazzou at 9.9 and last year at State it was 8.7 yards per completion. Dead last in the country and the lowest number since 2003 (where the stat site begins tracking Ypc) at least. This season we are only at 8.6 yards per completion.

Leach's offense was remarkably consistent. At Texas Tech he was between 10.8 and 12.2 yds per completion every year. At Washington State it was between 9.9 and 11.0 yds per completion every year. So far at State it's at 8.7 and 8.6... If you take out LSU game last year would have been a 7.8 ypc average.

So for 16 seasons his offense averaged 11 yards per catch and was always between 9.9 and 12.2 ypc. Now in the SEC it's 8.7 and 8.6 with the meat of the schedule in front of us this season. Something is broken. It's either Rogers or the fact that after 20 years, it's a lot easier to game plan for Leach.


Texas Tech YPC under Leach from 2003-2009

12.2, 11.2, 11.8, 10.8, 11.0, 11.4, 11.2


Washington State YPC under Leach for 2012-2019

10.9, 10.1, 10.9, 10.1, 10.1, 9.9, 10.1, and 11.0

Mississippi State YPC
8.7, 8.6

Feels like it's a trend. And again. We have played 4 games. 3 of which are against horrible pass defenses (109, 110, and 130.) I'm not impressed at all. We have been trailing 3-4 games double digits in the 4th quarter. Against the easy part of the schedule.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I like Will. Good QB but he has to build his confidence and start going deep more often. He did push it some against LSU. Im not sure why he isn't, if its confidence in his arm or avoiding possible interceptions or what but there are big gains to be had. He will figure it out I suppose. But as I have stated before this offense rides on the QB shoulders. Its effective with the right QB. Years when we have a mediocre QB will be pretty lackluster. Youngest QB Leach has ever started. He is the guy until Sawyer is ready to take over tho.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

Yeah, that’s definitely a good point. To me it comes down to two things:

1) We need to have some semblance of a run game. At least something that other teams respect enough to not just leave four guys in the box. We finally started running against the soft boxes LSU showed and it opened up some things.

I don’t think there is a hard and fast run/pass ratio, but we need to be able to punish teams for putting six DBs on the field. If our backs could average 6 YPC, that would be good.

2) We simply have to push the ball down the field. I think Rogers is capable enough to do it when given the chance. He has below average arm strength, but his numbers on deep balls suggest that he can take advantage it more than he is. He had a couple of well thrown balls down the field that our receivers dropped against LSU.

IMO, if we can run the ball more effectively and stretch the defense vertically, it would really open up some YAC opportunities for the backs and receivers on the shorter stuff.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Well said.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

How many games would JoMo and Mississippi State have won playing the 50th ranked SOS in 2018. They won 8 against the 6th most difficult schedule.

The PAC 12 is basically a group of 5 conference now and 2018 was a down year. SRS (basically rpi for college football) had Washington State @ #18 in 2018 with Mississippi State at #12..

Winning at Washington State is not any different than winning at UCF. Ask Scott Frost how that's working out He went 13-0 his last season at UCF. Now he's on his way to his 4th consecutive losing season. PAC 12 results translate to the SEC as much as AAC results translate to the BIG 10.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

UPDATE- through five games

Rogers
215/284 75.7% 1,862 yards 14/2 145.6 rating

Minshew
185/273 67.8% 1,992 yards 14/4 143.1 rating

Minshew a little more explosive but Rogers is playing well.

 

[Imadick]

The offensive line can’t/will not block effectively for run plays. On goal line they are standing in their stance not going to work when you need two yards.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

You deserve your victory lap

 

[Ralph Cramden]

Big difference between run blocking and pass blocking. They don't take a low enough stance to get under the pads and drive anyone. But that higher stance helps a lot in pass pro. You have to pick one or the other for the most part.

 

[CoastDawg18]

I don’t care about GM comparisons. But I do care about our QB play. I’m not a Rogers defender, but he is making some fantastic throws. Yes he misses a few and checks often. I played the position and have been called upon to make the throws and I can tell you they are damn hard to make even when they don’t look like it. He’s putting them in the correct location on the receiver more often than not and allowing for momentum snd forward progress to be maintained, which is a big deal for a YAC system. He’s not making mistakes and turning the ball over. He showed more downfield willingness this week and he did it with accuracy. Folks who are overly critical of him at this point in his career simply do not understand the position and what it takes to do what he is doing. He is running this system quite well at the moment.

 

[CoastDawg18]

Delete

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

I think it's obvious. Rogers is playing within the system. And doing it well. The only weakness is yards per completion, witch we are currently ranked 129th out of 130th. That's a function of how the defense is scheming and Leach's offense, not Rogers. As Tom Hart said last night, death by a thousand paper cuts.

The most interesting stat so far this season is something that should be a feather in Rogers style of play cap.

I have seen 3 **** games (La Tech, Memphis, LSU) and 2 great games (NC State and A&M.)

0 turnovers against A&M and NC State. The defenses are counting on our offense to make a mistake. As long as we don't, we win. The 4q drive with all the online penalties is an example, there is no room for error. Rogers just doesn't make many errors.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

UPDATE: Through the end of each regular season.

Rogers 2021
473/630 75.1% 4,449 yards 35/8 150.2 rating

Minshew 2018
433/613 70.6% 4,480 yards 36/9 148.9 rating

Statistically identical in almost every way.

 

[She Mate Me]

I'd be really impressed if some in this thread had the nuts to acknowledge their level of incorrectness.

 

[Smoked Toag]

UPDATE: Through the end of each regular season.

Rogers 2021
473/630 75.1% 4,449 yards 35/8 150.2 rating

Minshew 2018
433/613 70.6% 4,480 yards 36/9 148.9 rating

Statistically identical in almost every way.

Certainly appears that a couple of things are true:

1) Will Rogers was not the reason for our losses;
2) Wazzou played an easier schedule.

 

[dog12]

UPDATE: Through the end of each regular season.

Rogers 2021
473/630 75.1% 4,449 yards 35/8 150.2 rating

Minshew 2018
433/613 70.6% 4,480 yards 36/9 148.9 rating

Statistically identical in almost every way.

Noted.

Regardless, let's not forget the stat that matters most for each game: the final score.

 

[GloryDawg]

Minshew had one good year. And it wasn't in the SEC.

There is some truth to that but if you are a QB throwing 70% completion in any league you can throw. Regardless you have to be on target.

 

[JML105]

You'd be hard pressed to find two posters on this board that could stand 15 yards apart and catch 35 of 50 throws to each other with a nerf ball.

 

[FlotownDawg]

LOL at 85Bears and 047Dog saying half the Sun Belt quarterbacks would be an upgrade over Rogers. Let’s all point and laugh at them.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Everyone on the offensive side of the ball has to take some responsibility for the record. In 6 games the offense went 30+ minutes of game time scoring one or zero times, this causing the team to fall behind significantly.

5 of those games were losses and it took a 4th quarter for the ages to comeback and beat LA Tech. In a 7th game (Auburn) they only scored once in the first 28 minutes, but somehow pulled it out.

WR had an amazing season statistically and for large chunks of the game he was unstoppable. But there were also large stretches of games where the offense was comatose. Not all of that is on Will, but he does have to take a share of the responsibility.

If they can play a solid 3 quarters vs 2 next season, you are looking at 8-10 wins, even with the tougher schedule.

 

[drumrcraig]

UPDATE: Through the end of each regular season.

Rogers 2021
473/630 75.1% 4,449 yards 35/8 150.2 rating

Minshew 2018
433/613 70.6% 4,480 yards 36/9 148.9 rating

Statistically identical in almost every way.

To me this just shows how much hype a player gets is centered about the W-L record of the team. When I see those stats the only difference I see in why Gardner would have been hyped up more, was because WSU was a top 10 team that year, where we are 7-5.

 

[UncleChuck]

Agree - if we could just play like the second half of AUB and the 4th Qs of LSU / La Tech consistently, we absolutely become a worry for everyone on our schedule. All of that comes with experience and confidence, which you expect to be lagging when you are starting the youngest QB to ever play for Leach.

 

[UncleChuck]

But lets also keep in mind Minshew was a 5th year QB vs essentially something just below a RS Freshman... I think that is the most contributing factor for the W/L differences.

 

[Dawg_4_lifes]

View attachment 23171

LOL at 85Bears and 047Dog saying half the Sun Belt quarterbacks would be an upgrade over Rogers. Let’s all point and laugh at them.

 

[dog12]

Everyone on the offensive side of the ball has to take some responsibility for the record. In 6 games the offense went 30+ minutes of game time scoring one or zero times, this causing the team to fall behind significantly.

5 of those games were losses and it took a 4th quarter for the ages to comeback and beat LA Tech. In a 7th game (Auburn) they only scored once in the first 28 minutes, but somehow pulled it out.

WR had an amazing season statistically and for large chunks of the game he was unstoppable. But there were also large stretches of games where the offense was comatose. Not all of that is on Will, but he does have to take a share of the responsibility.

If they can play a solid 3 quarters vs 2 next season, you are looking at 8-10 wins, even with the tougher schedule.

Agree.

Every player on our team (offense, defense, special teams, 2nd stringers, scout team, etc.) is responsible for our wins and losses.

I think Will has had a great season, and our future is looking bright.

I was just trying to point out that I'd rather win the game than have big stats during the game.