MSU NCAA Tourney Update

[615dawg]

Been out of pocket all weekend but that was a HUGE win yesterday. My calculations had a home win over A&M as worth +3.7 spots, we got +3 to put us at 40 going into the final week of the regular season.

Reminders - only one Power 5 team ranked in the top 40 at selection time has been left out. No Top 37 team has ever been left out. Right now, it looks like we are either one of the last two byes or the first of the last four in. Wins can't hurt you so let's win!

This week:
MUST WIN vs. South Carolina. Cannot afford what would be a Q4 loss.
Probably need the win at Vanderbilt. If we don't get it, we might be sweating it.

2-0 this week and we are safely in, and probably avoiding the opening round games.

Right now, we are the 10-seed in the SEC Tournament. We could realistically play ourselves as high as the No. 6 or No 7 seed with two wins and some help.

Lots of focus on the bubble teams, and that's important. But lets take a look at how we can get to the top 37 in the RPI, which has a 100% historical NCAA bid.

35. Rutgers. Rutgers is losing to Penn State right now. If that score holds, they will fall to 38/39. This week they have games at Minnesota and Northwestern. Very likely a 2-0 week from State will pass Rutgers.

36. Auburn. We lose the H2H with Auburn, but Auburn has games at Alabama and against Tennessee. A 1-1 week from Auburn would actually bump them up. An 0-2 week could drop them below us if we go 2-0.

37. Northwestern. They have Penn State and Rutgers left. Probably need them to go 2-0 and let them help us rather than trying to pass them.

38. Memphis. They have SMU and Houston. Losing to Houston won't drop them. But if SMU can beat them in Dallas, it would be great.

39. Providence. Two losable games against Xavier and Seton Hall. Unfortunately both are at home.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

If we win VS SC and lose @VU, can a couple of wins in the SEC Tourney make a difference?

 

[FlotownDawg]

Penn State just blew a 19-point second half lead at home and lost to Rutgers by three. Big for us since Penn State was listed as the first team out to us being the last team in in Lunardi’s bracket. Jerry Palm had Penn State in and us out entering the weekend.

 

[msudawg1200]

Our NET sits at 39 going into the last week of the regular season. If we win both this week I believe we are solidly in. According to Bracket Matrix many prognosticators already have us in the last four byes/10 seed range. If we beat SC and lose to Vandy then we are back on the Last Four In line which makes things dicey. We need Okie State and West Va to lose tonight.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

Our NET sits at 39 going into the last week of the regular season. If we win both this week I believe we are solidly in. According to Bracket Matrix many prognosticators already have us in the last four byes/10 seed range. If we beat SC and lose to Vandy then we are back on the Last Four In line which makes things dicey. We need Okie State and West Va to lose tonight.

Both games at 8 PM tonight but I'm confused as to why we'd be concerned about WV since they are 5-11 in conference play.

 

[8dog]

Both games at 8 PM tonight but I'm confused as to why we'd be concerned about WV since they are 5-11 in conference play.

I dont think Conference record is a part of the committee criteria at all.

 

[FlotownDawg]

Both games at 8 PM tonight but I'm confused as to why we'd be concerned about WV since they are 5-11 in conference play.

The Big 12 is ridiculously strong this year. So their strength of schedule is one of the toughest in the country. WVU has been solidly in the tournament the entire season. They are just now slipping back into danger territory. But their NET ranking is still 26. Computers and metrics love them despite their bad conference record.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

I dont think Conference record is a part of the committee criteria at all.

Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. There's no consistency is what does and doesn't matter from year to year.

 

[Drebin]

I dont think Conference record is a part of the committee criteria at all.

It's a data point. They may say it doesn't matter, and it probably doesn't if their NET is high enough. But when you're evaluating the last four byes/last four in and comparing these teams against each other, it almost assuredly comes into play somewhere. These guys are human.

 

[8dog]

It's a data point. They may say it doesn't matter, and it probably doesn't if their NET is high enough. But when you're evaluating the last four byes/last four in and comparing these teams against each other, it almost assuredly comes into play somewhere. These guys are human.

I agree they are human and no one can stop them from taking it into account. This article is from 2 years ago so maybe there has been a change. But you can see the Team Sheet (unless I am missing it) doesn’t even list Conf record. Now there is certainly enough data on there to easily figure out someone’s conference record.

Bracketology: Explaining the 'team sheets' the selection committee uses to compare NCAA Tournament résumés

 

[615dawg]

Yes, West Virginia with a NET of 26 is very interesting. Texas A&M at 38 last year is the highest NET team ever left out.

The morning update has us at 39. Northwestern dropped two spots after losing to Maryland.

Win over South Carolina is actually calculating out as a -0.5 move.
Win over Vanderbilt is worth +1.7

So without help, looks like we will come in at 38th in the NET at the end of the regular season if we win out. Traditionally that has been enough to get in (all but one Power 5 in the history of the NET) and it's probably enough to avoid the play in games.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Yes, West Virginia with a NET of 26 is very interesting. Texas A&M at 38 last year is the highest NET team ever left out.

The morning update has us at 39. Northwestern dropped two spots after losing to Maryland.

Win over South Carolina is actually calculating out as a -0.5 move.
Win over Vanderbilt is worth +1.7

So without help, looks like we will come in at 38th in the NET at the end of the regular season if we win out. Traditionally that has been enough to get in (all but one Power 5 in the history of the NET) and it's probably enough to avoid the play in games.

What I’m gathering from this is that at present time we don’t really need to be bubble watching. Go 2-0 against two inferior teams, and we’re in. Do anything else, and we’re either counting on a deep SEC Tourney run to get us there (which still may not be enough) or praying that we’re favored by the very subjective eyes of individual committee members. Anything else besides 2-0 brings a lot of luck into the equation, and still probably has us in the play-in games even if we make it. So just go 2-0 and 17 everything else.

 

[Drebin]

What I’m gathering from this is that at present time we don’t really need to be bubble watching. Go 2-0 against two inferior teams, and we’re in. Do anything else, and we’re either counting on a deep SEC Tourney run to get us there (which still may not be enough) or praying that we’re favored by the very subjective eyes of individual committee members. Anything else besides 2-0 brings a lot of luck into the equation, and still probably has us in the play-in games even if we make it. So just go 2-0 and 17 everything else.

The A&M win was huge for us. Because of that, we could potentially recover if we dropped a game to Vandy. If we lose against SC, though, it's curtains.

Just win baby. Treat these next two as tournament games and don't relax because you think you're better than them.

 

[LordMcBuckethead]

It is stupid as hell that the last team in is a 10 seed.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

If you want to do the bubble watch thing tonight, there are some games of note if you want to cheer against some of the other bubble teams.

North Carolina at Florida State
Baylor at Oklahoma State
West Virginia at Iowa State

 

[615dawg]

What I’m gathering from this is that at present time we don’t really need to be bubble watching. Go 2-0 against two inferior teams, and we’re in. Do anything else, and we’re either counting on a deep SEC Tourney run to get us there (which still may not be enough) or praying that we’re favored by the very subjective eyes of individual committee members. Anything else besides 2-0 brings a lot of luck into the equation, and still probably has us in the play-in games even if we make it. So just go 2-0 and 17 everything else.

Couldn't have said it any better. If we go 2-0 this week, we are 93% in, probably as a legitimate seed without a playin game (9 or 10).

Win one in the SEC tournament and we lock it it up. Not enough bid stealing opportunities to drop out of the tournament field, but could drop into the play in games.

C-USA (FAU) West Coast (St. Mary's, Gonzaga) and American (Houston, maybe Memphis) are the tournaments that you don't want someone to get hot in. After that you have to drop to the CAA (Charleston), ASUN (Liberty), MAAC (Iona), and Summit (Oral Roberts), before you can even argue that there should be more than one bid. Not a great year for the mid-major conferences getting multiple bids, which helps us more than anything else.

 

[615dawg]

If we get a 10 seed, I'd love to be sent out West with Gonzaga. We will be tough to prepare for on two days notice. We would be ripe to pick off an overrated 2 seed.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

It is stupid as hell that the last team in is a 10 seed.

You understand the concept of autobids vs. at larges, right?

 

[johnson86-1]

It's a data point. They may say it doesn't matter, and it probably doesn't if their NET is high enough. But when you're evaluating the last four byes/last four in and comparing these teams against each other, it almost assuredly comes into play somewhere. These guys are human.

YEa, and because they're human, I think they largely pick who they want and then look for the justification when they get down to splitting hairs. I think conference tournament performance, how a team has played down the stretch, and conference record are all things that I think committee members either look to or ignore depending on whether it supports the decision they have already decided they want to make. And I don't even mean the decision they want to make because of bias. I just think at that point they know who they think should be in and then cherry pick data to support what they want. I think we've gotten screwed on this a couple of times where good wins in the SEC tourney didn't help us b/c we were already out in the minds of some committee members.

 

[pseudonym]

If you want to do the bubble watch thing tonight, there are some games of note if you want to cheer against some of the other bubble teams.

North Carolina at Florida State
Baylor at Oklahoma State
West Virginia at Iowa State

Getting at least two of three favorable results here would be nice.

 

[pseudonym]

We have easier games compared to other bubble teams. This can help or hurt us. We are in at the moment. If we keep winning, enough teams should lose to keep us in after the conference tournament madness. If we drop a game we shouldn't, enough teams will win (against better competition) to jump us.

These 10 teams are competing for 6 spots:

bubble team	remaining SOS rank (according to ESPN FPI)
Boise State	35th
Rutgers	107th
Mississippi State	112th
Wisconsin	65th
Oklahoma State	18th
West Virginia	25th
Michigan	6th
Penn State	20th
North Carolina	80th
Arizona State	3rd

Just win, baby, win.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Getting at least two of three favorable results here would be nice.

North Carolina losing to a bad FSU team would be a killer for them. The two Big 12 games are more opportunity games, but games worth worrying about. Oklahoma State is at home and desperately needing a win after dropping four in a row. WVU is on the road but playing an Iowa State team that is faltering.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

You understand the concept of autobids vs. at larges, right?

I just think no 10 seed should be in a play in game. Those should be reserved for the lowest seeds making the tourney whether or not you are an autobid or not. Winning some piss ant conference shouldn't guarantee you a pass to get in the main tournament as a 16 seed when a 10 seed or so has to play an extra sudden death game. If there are 8 play in games to determine 4 teams who make it those should be for the 16 seeds. I have no idea how many there are so this is just as an example.

 

[615dawg]

I just think no 10 seed should be in a play in game. Those should be reserved for the lowest seeds making the tourney whether or not you are an autobid or not. Winning some piss ant conference shouldn't guarantee you a pass to get in the main tournament as a 16 seed when a 10 seed or so has to play an extra sudden death game. If there are 8 play in games to determine 4 teams who make it those should be for the 16 seeds. I have no idea how many there are so this is just as an example.

I hate the play-in games for many reasons. If you want another round, just have 15s against 16s to play the 1s.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Lunardi updated just now...

State is the Last Bye team...

 

[FlotownDawg]

Interesting that we are only one spot behind Auburn now. Auburn has two tough games left and they are cratering. We could definitely be in the tourney while they are left out if we win our final two and they lose their final two.

 

[mstateglfr]

It is stupid as hell that the last team in is a 10 seed.

Should the last team in be a 16 seed and play the #1 seeds? That would place an imbalance on the entire seeding structure since 16 seed teams would be exponentially better than the 13 seeds even.