I have been retired since 2007 and for the first time I am worried. Is anyone else experiencing that?
My portfolio is in the toilet. Thanks Joe.
- Thread starter scotchie42
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It’s better this to happen under Biden than Trump. Why? Because Trump would get the votes to print more handouts. The Dems would saddle up with him and the RINOS would slurp up Trump’s electoral juice.
And, let’s be clear, inflation/recession was coming no matter who was President because of what both parties did during COVID.
It’s ok to think outside of the box, it really is.
And, let’s be clear, inflation/recession was coming no matter who was President because of what both parties did during COVID.
It’s ok to think outside of the box, it really is.
The common advise I see is to go something like 80/20 bonds/equities in retirement. Of course, bonds haven't been awesome either but certainly haven't taken the ~20% (on average) haircut equities have.
Yes. It sucks but it would suck worse to be in Ukraine or in the dozens of countries in the world without American freedom and rule of law. #perspective
The S&P is up 161% since July of 2007. +10% per year
US median home prices are up 80% in the same time span (equivalent of 400% if you used a conventional mortgage with 20% down.) + 26% per year
Gold is up over 214% since July 2007. +14% per year
Bitcoin didn't exist until a few years later, but it's up a zillion percentage points since it began.
If your portfolio sucks, you can't blame Joey... Or Donny... Or Barry... Or Georgie. You have a Scotchie problem.
https://www.letsmakeaplan.org/
US median home prices are up 80% in the same time span (equivalent of 400% if you used a conventional mortgage with 20% down.) + 26% per year
Gold is up over 214% since July 2007. +14% per year
Bitcoin didn't exist until a few years later, but it's up a zillion percentage points since it began.
If your portfolio sucks, you can't blame Joey... Or Donny... Or Barry... Or Georgie. You have a Scotchie problem.
https://www.letsmakeaplan.org/
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Little different if you're retired because of sequence of return risks. Depending on what time of 2007 you are looking at, it took 5ish years to get back to even if you didn't have to sell things to live. So somebody pulling 4% (inflation adjusted) of their initial balance out each year, which is (or was) a pretty accepted reasonable withdrawal rate, is going to take a lot longer to get to even.
Real estate may or may not be a reasonable investment for retirement for most people. They may not have enough assets to have a big chunk illiquid. If you're using a portfolio that is mainstream enough to be recommended by advisors, gold isn't going to save you and I'm not sure it's reasonable to fault people that were 60+ in 2007 for not jumping on the bitcoin bandwagon.
It's not clear at all that Trump would have signed off on another almost 2 trillion dollars after the crisis was more or less over except for the government imposed ones.
Trump also wouldn't be ensuring that we have a long period of pain at the pump. The stuff Biden has snuffed out may not actually be at market yet, but expectations matter and general business climate. The target return doesn't have to be as high when you don't have a president that says he wants to put you out of business.
And of course you're also assuming that Putin would have invaded if Trump was in office. If we hadn't shown ourselves to be led by bumbling idiots in the afghanistan withdrawal, is Putin more worried about us having the political will to intervene and/or assess significant sanctions? Maybe Putin doesn't miscalculate the international response if Trump is there and not acting senile.
"...ensuring that we have a long period of pain at the pump..." You must have written this before Joe lowered crude oil prices substantially this week?
You should be pretty heavy in fixed income products, but if I were you my equity portfolio would contain ones that pay good dividends.
Agree with all. But, the last 15 years have offered historic returns. Even if allocation to risk assets is lower in retirement, performance has been exceptional. So everyone's portfolio should be well ahead of plan. Unless of course you don't have one or don't stick to it.
Literally just went through an in depth financial plan with a CFP over the last few weeks. It's a great exercise for anyone at any age.
Literally just went through an in depth financial plan with a CFP over the last few weeks. It's a great exercise for anyone at any age.
That is pretty aggressive in retirement. Until pretty recently the standard advice I think was 60/40. At least as of a couple of years ago, if you back tested every year from like the end of WWII (which granted aren't actually separate samples so not entirely reliable), the optimum balance between stocks and bonds in retirement was I believe 75/25. You could do a little better with an equity glide path where you got more conservative leading into retirement and then actually move toward the 75/25 mix over the first 5 or 10 years of retirement, can't remember which.
Oil prices are dropping because investors are scared shitless we're heading for a recession which will kill demand. So yeah, I guess Biden is responsible.
It does but a lot of what’s happened in the last week is technical selling. It’s happening across all the commodities right now. There’s nothing there to drive any of the commodities this low.
And refining capacity and you know general bidness and such. And sometimes corporate focus on profits and shareholder value, stock buybacks rather than exploration. I'm not faulting the companies. I recall early COVID with the crude oil was worth less than the barrel that contained it. Oil is cyclical and these companies are making hay while the sun shines.
Can you, in a few bullets, offer your opinions on the benefits of using a CFP? Never done it before, not sure where their advice would fit in with my general investment advice from my investment firm or where the two overlap, etc.
Which is why it is so destructive to have a policy of suppressing future supply. If we had a reasonably balanced mainstream media and a reasonably educated electorate democrats would be unelectable for anything past city council for dense metropolitan areas. For something probably north of 40% of the country, the cost of energy just dwarves most other economic issues.
We're still producing less than we did in 2019. If you believe Macron (or I guess his sources), OPEC is tapped out or within 150k barrels a day of being tapped out. Russian output is going to stagnate and likely decline because of the lack of expertise and access to tech that keeps production up as you move to more complicated sites. We should be encouraging investments in oil and gas at this point, instead we have a senile jackass who is blaming producers for essentially believing him and his fellow party members when they say their going to make it a lot harder for the producers to make money in the future.
Or maybe you know did something along the lines of:
1. Deregulation and overstepping his powers
2. Quit saying left and right you are getting rid of oil which stops investment in refineries.
1. Deregulation and overstepping his powers
2. Quit saying left and right you are getting rid of oil which stops investment in refineries.
While he’s at it can he open the keystone pipeline….you know the one that’s been open that ships that Canadian crap oil to Mexico but people think is closed because they are too blinded by their god daddy trump to know any better even though they are in their mid 60s…so who’s the real senile one here.
Also, in before the lock
If you aren't using a discount one, your investment firm probably offers the services of a CFP for free.
My two cents is that if you're a typical W-2 earner, you don't necessarily need one for investing advice until you're say within ten years from retirement, provided you have some flexibility in retirement date (i.e., if you're aiming to be financially independent at 60 and are comfortable that you may need to work until 62 or 63 if the market moves against you; if you're planning on being financially independent at 65, health may not let you just work a few more years, so you may need to be a little more dialed in).
A good one though will help you not just with asset allocation but also to identify insurance needs and can help check whether your spending is in line with your goals and/or typical.
But the investment firms that I know of that provide this service for free typically are charging at least 1% of assets (unless you have a huge portfolio) and not many people can produce enough extra return to justify those fees to me.
Two questions,
1) How did Trump driving the price of oil through the floor early COVID and nearly kill off oil companies?
2) How is Biden causing a worldwide surge in gas prices?
View attachment 24684
1) How did Trump driving the price of oil through the floor early COVID and nearly kill off oil companies?
2) How is Biden causing a worldwide surge in gas prices?
View attachment 24684
Domestic production is forecasted at record levels in 23
That's a strange environment of future supply suppression. But yes, Brandon did say some mean things and spouted off mean tweets about the oil industry. They don't care about political rhetoric. They care about returns and making things right after taking a bath in 20. When there is demand for oil and gas, supply drilled here will follow..it's just not going to catch up as quickly...especially not after an abnormal demand disruption and resumption that Covid presented.
That's a strange environment of future supply suppression. But yes, Brandon did say some mean things and spouted off mean tweets about the oil industry. They don't care about political rhetoric. They care about returns and making things right after taking a bath in 20. When there is demand for oil and gas, supply drilled here will follow..it's just not going to catch up as quickly...especially not after an abnormal demand disruption and resumption that Covid presented.
Free-market economy just doing it's THANG.
Thankfully, we still don't have a government controlled economy and investors are allowed to invest on their own terms: sit back, relax, or **** their pants.
Some gotta win and some gotta lose. Good luck and enjoy the ride.
You probably follow commodities as a whole closer than I do (basically looking at sectors) but isn't this also a bullish deflation?
Maybe you could answer this. Why is Biden not trying to sell an orderly and seamless transition into diversifying our energy sources (as they should be) rather than waging an all out (as acknowledged by himself) war on fossil fuels before we've been able to establish even a fraction of the new energy production sources it will take to replace them ?
Are you somehow suggesting a supply-chain shortage and labor shortage affected the energy sector?
I think it’s rats jumping off the ship in commodities. Funds across commodities are down and people are getting out of their positions.
Yeah. My father in law looked at me sideways in disbelief when I told him that the Keystone pipeline was not closed by Biden but the permits needed to shorten the route via Keystone XL had effectively sidelined that project, which was originally sidelined by Obama in 2015 only to be resurrected by Trump. The oil is still piped to all the same places, it just takes longer to get from Canada to Nebraska than it would if the XL were in place.
Consider absorbing this link and take notice of the GLOBAL emphasis. Take note that this evolution started on 2019 before Biden took office. Take notice when the FED started printing money about 2019. To add to the pain remember covid19 caused GLOBAL PAIN economically and governments plus businesses had to make painful decisions because of the GLOBAL problem. Russia now has caused the price of oil to rise. Russia is causing GLOBAL problems with food deprivation which will cause food prices to spike.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKkKFIcd4_8&t=578s
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