A strange basketball season, where State claimed to as high as No. 17 in the polls, went 1-7 to start SEC play, and now we find ourselves on the right side of the bubble for an unexpected NCAA Tournament bid in the first year of Jansanity.
On a personal level - this is my favorite time of year. I love the RPI, NET and advanced ratings. In past years, I have developed my own metrics, but some of the new ratings and combo of ratings are so good that it's hard to put the time into my own set. I've worked with the great Warren Nolan in the past and learned from him - he's the best at this, and pays attention to college baseball, so I like him even more.
With that being said, we are 43rd in the NET, and Lunardi has us currently as the first of the "Last Four In," which means we are extremely close to getting a legit seed. (I hate the play in games for the 11/12 seed line. Do not mind them for the 15/16 seed line).
Our company on the last four in line includes West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin. The last four byes line includes Memphis (38), Oklahoma State (39), Boise State (41) and Nevada (42). Having three non-Power 5 teams right ahead of us is good and bad. Those teams typically do not lose regular season games in which they are favored to win, but when they do lose - they drop big.
Oklahoma State plays West Virginia tonight in Morgantown. This is a tough one for State fans, because both teams are bubble teams. Statistically, Oklahoma State winning helps us more, although the Pokes seem to be ahead of us. If West Virginia wins, I suspect they would just swap places with Oklahoma State and leave us in the same position. An Oklahoma State win would drop West Virginia, who is right there with us on the bubble.
Minnesota - Illinois might be worth watching, although not from a bubble standpoint. The Illini are safely in, but have a similar resume to us. We have a win over Minnesota, so if they beat Illinois, it could help us in seeding.
On a personal level - this is my favorite time of year. I love the RPI, NET and advanced ratings. In past years, I have developed my own metrics, but some of the new ratings and combo of ratings are so good that it's hard to put the time into my own set. I've worked with the great Warren Nolan in the past and learned from him - he's the best at this, and pays attention to college baseball, so I like him even more.
With that being said, we are 43rd in the NET, and Lunardi has us currently as the first of the "Last Four In," which means we are extremely close to getting a legit seed. (I hate the play in games for the 11/12 seed line. Do not mind them for the 15/16 seed line).
Our company on the last four in line includes West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin. The last four byes line includes Memphis (38), Oklahoma State (39), Boise State (41) and Nevada (42). Having three non-Power 5 teams right ahead of us is good and bad. Those teams typically do not lose regular season games in which they are favored to win, but when they do lose - they drop big.
Oklahoma State plays West Virginia tonight in Morgantown. This is a tough one for State fans, because both teams are bubble teams. Statistically, Oklahoma State winning helps us more, although the Pokes seem to be ahead of us. If West Virginia wins, I suspect they would just swap places with Oklahoma State and leave us in the same position. An Oklahoma State win would drop West Virginia, who is right there with us on the bubble.
Minnesota - Illinois might be worth watching, although not from a bubble standpoint. The Illini are safely in, but have a similar resume to us. We have a win over Minnesota, so if they beat Illinois, it could help us in seeding.
