You gotta hand it to Chris Beard. He took a program that was quickly descending down the ranks of the SEC and in less than a year he has established them as a competitive team. Tuesday night should be a good battle.
Their gaudy 17-3 record is somewhat propped up by a weak non-conference slate. To their credit, they won all of them. But the wins haven't exactly aged well. While the Memphis and NC State wins got more publicity at the time, the road win over UCF is the only Quad 1 win in the non-conference and the only one they had at all until the impressive win in College Station last night. The Bears are 4-3 in the first two quads and 13-0 in quads three and four. No other SEC team has played that many games in Q3 and Q4. So yeah, the record looks good but doesn't have a whole lot of substance to it. Sounds appropriate.
The Ole Miss offense is interesting. They are a very good three point shooting team at over 38% which is top 20 in the country. But they are in the bottom third of the country in three point attempts, taking fewer than 20 attempts per game. Maybe those things are related. They take fewer threes but the ones they do take are really good looks, leading to a higher percentage of makes. Of course on the flip side you have us. We are just outside the top 100 in the country in 3 pt attempts but 291 in percentage. We could stand to scale back some of our attempts. The Bears are not a good two point shooting team (< 50%) which makes the lack of attempted threes even more confusing. We remain a top 10 team in 3 pt defense, holding teams to less than 28%. Split the middle and I'd take 6-18 or 7-21 from them right now if you gave it to me.
Ole Miss does two other things very well that we don't do. They take care of the basketball and make free throws. They aren't nationally elite in either turnover margin or FT % as in top 20, but they are in the top 50s in both. It will be a challenge for us to go into their arena and keep the turnover margin in check. We are -8 total over our last three games and have to clean that up. When you play with fewer possessions like we do, turnovers are even more costly. The free throws speak for themselves. We are down to 280th in the country (68.4%) while Ole Miss checks in at 59th, right at 75%.
I don't see any way we win this game if we don't dominate them on the glass. We are better than them in all rebounding statistics and I think if you look at the matchups we should have significant physical advantages too. But we still have to go out and do it. Destroying Auburn on the boards yesterday was an encouragement.
The bulk of their scoring comes from the group of Murrell, Flanagan, Jaylen Murray, and Brakefield. All but Flanagan are good three point shooters, and all four of them are great at the free throw line. Neither of the big men do anything other than block shots and rebound, and the other subs have simply not been threats. In that respect they remind me of Florida. We can maybe withstand one of these guys having a good game but not two or more. Those four average about 58 points per game in SEC play. Holding that group to about 45 would give us a great chance to win. Our defense vs their offense will be the key matchup to me.
The challenge for us will be scoring, shocker. We are a good two point shooting team, but that's the strength of the Ole Miss defense. Cisse and Sharp don't bring much to the table offensively, but are the leaders for a team that's in the top 5 in the country in blocked shots. Tolu will have his hands full trying to score against those two, as will any of our players trying to drive and finish at the rim. Tolu can also help by occupying whichever big man is in the game and making good passes to cutters.
Going on the road in college basketball is hard. They will have a great crowd on hand. We have to play through all of that and control what we can control. Do that and I think we will have a chance.
Their gaudy 17-3 record is somewhat propped up by a weak non-conference slate. To their credit, they won all of them. But the wins haven't exactly aged well. While the Memphis and NC State wins got more publicity at the time, the road win over UCF is the only Quad 1 win in the non-conference and the only one they had at all until the impressive win in College Station last night. The Bears are 4-3 in the first two quads and 13-0 in quads three and four. No other SEC team has played that many games in Q3 and Q4. So yeah, the record looks good but doesn't have a whole lot of substance to it. Sounds appropriate.
The Ole Miss offense is interesting. They are a very good three point shooting team at over 38% which is top 20 in the country. But they are in the bottom third of the country in three point attempts, taking fewer than 20 attempts per game. Maybe those things are related. They take fewer threes but the ones they do take are really good looks, leading to a higher percentage of makes. Of course on the flip side you have us. We are just outside the top 100 in the country in 3 pt attempts but 291 in percentage. We could stand to scale back some of our attempts. The Bears are not a good two point shooting team (< 50%) which makes the lack of attempted threes even more confusing. We remain a top 10 team in 3 pt defense, holding teams to less than 28%. Split the middle and I'd take 6-18 or 7-21 from them right now if you gave it to me.
Ole Miss does two other things very well that we don't do. They take care of the basketball and make free throws. They aren't nationally elite in either turnover margin or FT % as in top 20, but they are in the top 50s in both. It will be a challenge for us to go into their arena and keep the turnover margin in check. We are -8 total over our last three games and have to clean that up. When you play with fewer possessions like we do, turnovers are even more costly. The free throws speak for themselves. We are down to 280th in the country (68.4%) while Ole Miss checks in at 59th, right at 75%.
I don't see any way we win this game if we don't dominate them on the glass. We are better than them in all rebounding statistics and I think if you look at the matchups we should have significant physical advantages too. But we still have to go out and do it. Destroying Auburn on the boards yesterday was an encouragement.
The bulk of their scoring comes from the group of Murrell, Flanagan, Jaylen Murray, and Brakefield. All but Flanagan are good three point shooters, and all four of them are great at the free throw line. Neither of the big men do anything other than block shots and rebound, and the other subs have simply not been threats. In that respect they remind me of Florida. We can maybe withstand one of these guys having a good game but not two or more. Those four average about 58 points per game in SEC play. Holding that group to about 45 would give us a great chance to win. Our defense vs their offense will be the key matchup to me.
The challenge for us will be scoring, shocker. We are a good two point shooting team, but that's the strength of the Ole Miss defense. Cisse and Sharp don't bring much to the table offensively, but are the leaders for a team that's in the top 5 in the country in blocked shots. Tolu will have his hands full trying to score against those two, as will any of our players trying to drive and finish at the rim. Tolu can also help by occupying whichever big man is in the game and making good passes to cutters.
Going on the road in college basketball is hard. They will have a great crowd on hand. We have to play through all of that and control what we can control. Do that and I think we will have a chance.
