Ole Miss ranking

[DoggieDaddy13]

So aside from Bama, Ole Miss is the highest ranked teams we've played this year at #8. How are we favored?

It would seem a victory will not jump us up to any number that could end up being higher than where the rebels land with a loss.

That's messed up. Seems they should at least be favored by 3.

WIN THIS GAME!

 

[oxfordrebel22]

So aside from Bama, Ole Miss is the highest ranked teams we've played this year at #8. How are we favored?

It would seem a victory will not jump us up to any number that could end up being higher than where the rebels land with a loss.

That's messed up. Seems they should at least be favored by 3.

WIN THIS GAME!

Rankings are based on results (or at least are supposed to be). Lines are based on predictive results, as well as current trends such as recent results, injuries, matchups, etc.

Its the same reason that Utah was favored over Oregon on Saturday. Anyone who’s watched Ole Miss and MSU both the last few weeks, has to be questioning why the line isn’t higher with MSU at home, on a short week, in a rivalry game?

The answer is because Vegas knows people will bet the rankings, and wants money on Ole Miss. The best bet, by far, is MSU. I don’t want that to be true, but it is. Best bets don’t always win though, so that’s obviously what I’m hoping for.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Rankings are based on results (or at least are supposed to be). Lines are based on predictive results, as well as current trends such as recent results, injuries, matchups, etc.

People are having a hard time grasping this. The playoff is supposed to work the same way. All I hear is, "FoUr BeSt TeAmS!!11". No, it's the 4 best teams VIA THE RESUME (which includes record, SOS, power indexes, etc.).

I remember when people said Florida State shouldn't have made the playoff in 2014 because they didn't pass the eye test. WTF?? They were 13-0 in a Power 5 conference with 3 P5 OOC opponents!! If they didn't deserve, we may as well not even play.

I'm convinced people are intentionally being stupid.

 

[GloryDawg]

A fool with money is a fool who bets on the Egg Bowl.

 

[FQDawg]

A fool with money is a fool who bets on the Egg Bowl.

I’d light money on fire before I ever bet on an Egg Bowl. This game almost never goes the way people think it’s going to go.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

For a 9-2 SEC West team, OM has really not looked THAT impressive- at least since their game against Bama… And that’s not really a knock, because getting to 9-2 in the SECW regardless of how impressive you look still makes you a really good team. They have just won basically every toss up this year, and the point differential is not what you’d expect from a team with that record.

The offense has been very average over the last month or so. OM has scored >31 points in a game one time since the end of September. They have scored two second half offensive TDs in their last four games- one against Vanderbilt and the other against A&M on a drive late in the game that started in the RZ. OM has scored 3 total points in the third quarters of their last four games.

The defense is better than a year ago no doubt, but they have feasted on some bad QB play. Calzada was terrible a couple of weeks ago or A&M probably wins. Malik Willis is a great athlete with a strong arm, but every time Liberty got in the RZ he looked like he had never made a read in his life. When OM has played good QBs (Young, Jefferson, Nix at Auburn, etc.) it has not gone well for that defense.

This is another one of those games where the books can tilt the odds in their favor, similar to when we played NCSU and Kentucky at home earlier this year. The public sees a highly ranked team getting points against what the rankings say is an inferior team, so money comes in heavy on the higher ranked team. But the books know there is little to no difference between us and OM right now, despite what the rankings say.

 

[Smoked Toag]

For a 9-2 SEC West team, OM has really not looked THAT impressive- at least since their game against Bama… And that’s not really a knock, because getting to 9-2 in the SECW regardless of how impressive you look still makes you a really good team. They have just won basically every toss up this year, and the point differential is not what you’d expect from a team with that record.

The offense has been very average over the last month or so. OM has scored >31 points in a game one time since the end of September. They have scored two second half offensive TDs in their last four games- one against Vanderbilt and the other against A&M on a drive late in the game that started in the RZ. OM has scored 3 total points in the third quarters of their last four games.

The defense is better than a year ago no doubt, but they have feasted on some bad QB play. Calzada was terrible a couple of weeks ago or A&M probably wins. Malik Willis is a great athlete with a strong arm, but every time Liberty got in the RZ he looked like he had never made a read in his life. When OM has played good QBs (Young, Jefferson, Nix at Auburn, etc.) it has not gone well for that defense.

This is another one of those games where the books can tilt the odds in their favor, similar to when we played NCSU and Kentucky at home earlier this year. The public sees a highly ranked team getting points against what the rankings say is an inferior team, so money comes in heavy on the higher ranked team. But the books know there is little to no difference between us and OM right now, despite what the rankings say.

A 9-3 or 10-2 season in the SEC for Ole Miss or MSU is never something to sneeze at.

 

[PBDog]

Rankings are based on results (or at least are supposed to be). Lines are based on predictive results, as well as current trends such as recent results, injuries, matchups, etc.

Its the same reason that Utah was favored over Oregon on Saturday. Anyone who’s watched Ole Miss and MSU both the last few weeks, has to be questioning why the line isn’t higher with MSU at home, on a short week, in a rivalry game?

The answer is because Vegas knows people will bet the rankings, and wants money on Ole Miss. The best bet, by far, is MSU. I don’t want that to be true, but it is. Best bets don’t always win though, so that’s obviously what I’m hoping for.

No. Lines are based on the gamblers - Vegas wants even money on both teams. Only idiots bet based on rankings and helmet colors. Big money pros move the line.

 

[Mobile Bay]

That over looks like free money

 

[bully12]

THIS!!!

 

[oxfordrebel22]

That over looks like free money

The under has hit in like 5 straight Ole Miss games

 

[paindonthurt]

Lines are based on getting half the people to bet one way and half the people to bet another.

Nothing to do with who they think wins or loses or how teams are ranked.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

For a 9-2 SEC West team, OM has really not looked THAT impressive- at least since their game against Bama… And that’s not really a knock, because getting to 9-2 in the SECW regardless of how impressive you look still makes you a really good team. They have just won basically every toss up this year, and the point differential is not what you’d expect from a team with that record.

The offense has been very average over the last month or so. OM has scored >31 points in a game one time since the end of September. They have scored two second half offensive TDs in their last four games- one against Vanderbilt and the other against A&M on a drive late in the game that started in the RZ. OM has scored 3 total points in the third quarters of their last four games.

The defense is better than a year ago no doubt, but they have feasted on some bad QB play. Calzada was terrible a couple of weeks ago or A&M probably wins. Malik Willis is a great athlete with a strong arm, but every time Liberty got in the RZ he looked like he had never made a read in his life. When OM has played good QBs (Young, Jefferson, Nix at Auburn, etc.) it has not gone well for that defense.

This is another one of those games where the books can tilt the odds in their favor, similar to when we played NCSU and Kentucky at home earlier this year. The public sees a highly ranked team getting points against what the rankings say is an inferior team, so money comes in heavy on the higher ranked team. But the books know there is little to no difference between us and OM right now, despite what the rankings say.

A lot of truth in this. I won’t argue it. It’s impossible to argue that any 9-2 SEC West team isn’t a very good team. But it’s also fair to say that they aren’t as good as what you’d expect out of your typical 9-2 team. Especially of late.

Just like you can say that the version of MSU that Ole Miss will face is a good bit better than your typical 7-4 (4-3) SEC West team. But just like Ole Miss, there are some things you can point to with MSU that makes them very beatable. They’ve had a propensity to give up big plays on defense, which could be a problem with Corral’s arm talent. And they’ve beaten themselves in almost crazy ways, at times.

Both teams are capable of beating the **** out of the other one, if their good version shows up and the bad other team shows up. I’d say if both teams “A games” show up, it’ll be a heck of a game. If both teams are average, you’d have to think home field will matter. It’ll all come down to which team both programs show up with.

 

[harrybollocks]

Ole Miss wouldn't lose to Memphis this year

And they beat LSU. Don't care how they looked. We didn't look good in those losses.

A 9-3 or 10-2 season in the SEC for Ole Miss or MSU is never something to sneeze at.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

No. Lines are based on the gamblers - Vegas wants even money on both teams. Only idiots bet based on rankings and helmet colors. Big money pros move the line.

Thank you for your education. I literally didn’t say anything that would conflict with this.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

People are having a hard time grasping this. The playoff is supposed to work the same way. All I hear is, "FoUr BeSt TeAmS!!11". No, it's the 4 best teams VIA THE RESUME (which includes record, SOS, power indexes, etc.).

I remember when people said Florida State shouldn't have made the playoff in 2014 because they didn't pass the eye test. WTF?? They were 13-0 in a Power 5 conference with 3 P5 OOC opponents!! If they didn't deserve, we may as well not even play.

I'm convinced people are intentionally being stupid.

Yeah I’ve seen people who’s opinions I really respect argue over this and get go round and round, and neither ever give. Yes, the committees job is to pick the best 4 teams. But that selection HAS TO include their body of work. Just like you said.

The simplest way I know to put it to us is like this - imagine MSU (or Ole Miss for me) goes 11-1 with a head to head win over Alabama at home, in a close game. We then lost a nail biter to Georgia in SECCG. Should the committee put Alabama in over MSU? Alabama would absolutely be favored by Vegas. Possibly by more than a TD. So they’re likely “the better team”. But you beat them head to head, and that’s got to matter.

Obviously you would all be beyond outraged, and rightfully so. Your resume HAS TO MATTER. Now if you want to argue an 11-2 SEC team deserves in over a 12-0 Cincinnati, I can understand that, depending on circumstances. But if the whole process is just supposed to pick the “best 4 teams” then Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State, who recruit 50% of the 5-stars, are going to be in every year. And that playoff is killing college football, and causing all of these coaching firings. Ole Miss has a chance to go to the dang Sugar Bowl if they can find a way to win Thursday night, and I guarantee you there’ll be multiple opt-outs for it. Because it just doesn’t feel like it matters anymore. And for teams like Cincinnati, the entire season doesn’t matter if they have no shot to get in despite going undefeated and playing multiple P5 programs out of conference.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

A 9-3 or 10-2 season in the SEC for Ole Miss or MSU is never something to sneeze at.

I am not sneezing at their accomplishments. I specifically said they are a really good team, because you have to be to go 9-2 in the SECW.

But on the spectrum of 9-2 SECW teams I’ve seen in my life, they are on the less impressive end of that. OM has not won an SEC game by more than 14 points all season, and they have really not blown anyone out since game 3. They are 5-2 in the league but only scoring an average of 1.7 PPG more than their SEC opponents. OM is 1-2 in SEC road games, and it took a 30 carry/195 rush yard performance from Corral and some good fortune to win that one.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

OM is not nearly as scary as they looked early in the year. Looked like a team going thru the motions with even less effort in the second half. State is much better than we were early in the year. If we played like we did against Auburn it should be a decisive win. But we all know how thst goes with State, esp in the Battle for the Golden Egg. We need this win tho. Keep our momentum and carry it into a bowl win.

 

[patdog]

Agree. At the end of September, I'd written this game off as a blowout loss. Now, it looks like a tossup that we could easily win if we play well.

 

[patdog]

The MSU team we are now wouldn't lose either of those games either. We're a lot better right now than we were in September. They're not quite as good as they were in September. It should be a good game.

 

[Cooterpoot]

OM is not nearly as scary as they looked early in the year. Looked like a team going thru the motions with even less effort in the second half. State is much better than we were early in the year. If we played like we did against Auburn it should be a decisive win. But we all know how thst goes with State, esp in the Battle for the Golden Egg. We need this win tho. Keep our momentum and carry it into a bowl win.

If we spot them a 28-3 first half, we'll lose. Let's not pretend we played great at AU. We played a great 2nd half. And AR was a stinker. If anyone thinks we're going to crush them, they're not paying attention. We haven't crushed an SEC team other than Vandy.

 

[Mayor of Little London]

If we spot them a 28-3 first half, we'll lose. Let's not pretend we played great at AU. We played a great 2nd half. And AR was a stinker. If anyone thinks we're going to crush them, they're not paying attention. We haven't crushed an SEC team other than Vandy.

We kicked Kentucky’s ***

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

If we spot them a 28-3 first half, we'll lose. Let's not pretend we played great at AU. We played a great 2nd half. And AR was a stinker. If anyone thinks we're going to crush them, they're not paying attention. We haven't crushed an SEC team other than Vandy.

The Arkansas game was not a stinker. We went on the road, played a good SECW team, and lost by three points due to missed FGs. If we had just competent kicking in that game, we score at minimum 34 points and win. The Brandon Ruiz injury from early this season has costed us at least two games. We are possibly 6-1 in SEC play with a healthy Ruiz.

Losing a close road SECW game to a good team does not qualify as a terrible effort.

 

[johnson86-1]

I am not sneezing at their accomplishments. I specifically said they are a really good team, because you have to be to go 9-2 in the SECW.

But on the spectrum of 9-2 SECW teams I’ve seen in my life, they are on the less impressive end of that. OM has not won an SEC game by more than 14 points all season, and they have really not blown anyone out since game 3. They are 5-2 in the league but only scoring an average of 1.7 PPG more than their SEC opponents. OM is 1-2 in SEC road games, and it took a 30 carry/195 rush yard performance from Corral and some good fortune to win that one.

They are, but it's really hard to tell whether they are less impressive or the bottom teams are just better. I personally think the SECW is just down this year. Just seems like a lot of almost good but flawed teams. A&M is probably really good with a good QB. Arkansas reminds me of 2010 MSU. Really solid but not quite really good. We are now I think pretty good and just some better safety play from being really good. Ole Miss's defense is improved but is still not good and with Corral slowed down even a little, the offense has slowed down a lot.

That said, I could see the argument that the SEC is just really deep this year. LSU still has a lot of talent, and they are in last. Everybody else is bunched together and we could realistically have a three way tie for second, and it's not that those teams aren't as good as the usual 2nd in the West teams, there is just more competition.

 

[AtlantaDawg]

The Arkansas game was not a stinker. We went on the road, played a good SECW team, and lost by three points due to missed FGs. If we had just competent kicking in that game, we score at minimum 34 points and win. The Brandon Ruiz injury from early this season has costed us at least two games. We are possibly 6-1 in SEC play with a healthy Ruiz.

Losing a close road SECW game to a good team does not qualify as a terrible effort.

What I remember about the Arkansas game was that Arkansas was very spirited and wanted to knock off the #17 team in the nation. It was their Super Bowl, and we did not match their intensity.

Arkansas was also very creative with their offense and really spread the field. Their QB played very well (better than what I expected). They also incorporated a lot of trick plays, many of which worked for them.

I expect Ole Miss to do the same. They have a lot riding on beating us (Sugar Bowl birth), whereas our destination for a bowl is very much up in the air.

Because of the rivalry, I expect both teams to play hard. It will probably boil down to who makes the most mistakes (turnovers, bad special teams play, etc.) and how well our defense is able to contain their QB.

Because ARKY spread the field so much, our defense was absolutely gassed in the fourth quarter. I am sure that this will be Ole Miss's goal as well.

I noted that in the Arky game, the time of possession was pretty close, with MSU slightly ahead (about 3-4 minutes). For the A&M and Auburn victory, the time of possession was skewed a lot toward MSU (almost by 10 minutes). I am sure that Ole Miss knows that their best bet is to keep the MSU Air Raid on the sideline, and to own the time of possession. Our D is going to have to step up. In a spirited game like this, it will be hard to not cheat and try to be a hero with a big sack or INT.

Per Leach, it is critical that the D play their position, and not get fooled by Ole Miss's offensive trickery (Run Pass Option). Can they be disciplined in a big rivalry game? is the key question, in my humble opinion....

 

[AtlantaDawg]

One additional point is that our fans need to be VERY loud whenever Ole Miss is on offense. I believe this will have an impact on Ole Miss's ability to execute their offense. I know that Jordan Hare is a loud venue and it had an impact on Ole Miss. I suspect Alabama's fan had an impact as well (not to mention Bama's level of skill and execution). Note that Louisville was neutral, probably with more Ole Miss fans than Cardinal fans due to proximity, so it favored Ole Miss. Ole Miss was also lucky to beat Tennessee in Knoxville.

I believe a lot of their big wins were at their friendly confines of Oxford (Arkansas, which I consider a team equal to Ole Miss; Texas A&M; and LSU).

If Davis Wade turns into a neutral field from a noise perspective, it will really help Ole Miss. If it turns into a rabid environment of screaming state fans ringing the hell out of their cowbells, it will definitely help the men in Maroon...

I was fortunate enough to attend the game where the Braves clinched a World Series birth against the Dodgers. The stadium was rocking on every pitch, and the level of intensity really shook the Dodgers. Even though I was in the upper deck, I was hoarse for two weeks afterward.

PLEASE give those Ole Miss bastards HELL! Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe Ole Miss confiscates cowbells at their stadium. If this is true, it's payback time.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

They are, but it's really hard to tell whether they are less impressive or the bottom teams are just better. I personally think the SECW is just down this year. Just seems like a lot of almost good but flawed teams. A&M is probably really good with a good QB. Arkansas reminds me of 2010 MSU. Really solid but not quite really good. We are now I think pretty good and just some better safety play from being really good. Ole Miss's defense is improved but is still not good and with Corral slowed down even a little, the offense has slowed down a lot.

That said, I could see the argument that the SEC is just really deep this year. LSU still has a lot of talent, and they are in last. Everybody else is bunched together and we could realistically have a three way tie for second, and it's not that those teams aren't as good as the usual 2nd in the West teams, there is just more competition.

The whole point is that you can just throw A&M, Arkansas, MSU, and OM in a hat. They are all basically on the same level. I would put Auburn in that group too, before Nix went down.

A&M - Beat Auburn but lost to the other three teams in respectable games. Arkansas and MSU caught them at a good time, and OM got them at home in a game where they had some key turnovers late.

Arkansas - Beat A&M at neutral site, lost a coin flip game at OM, won a coin flip game at home against MSU, and lost to Auburn at home. Had the misfortune of playing at Georgia, so that hurts their SEC record.

OM - Beat A&M at home and won a coin flip game against Arkansas. Lost at Auburn, and we’ll see how the Egg Bowl goes.

MSU - Won at A&M and at Auburn but lost a coin flip game at Arkansas. Also screwed around and lost to LSU/Memphis early in the season before things appeared to click. We’ll see how the Egg Bowl goes

Auburn - Beat OM and won at Arkansas, both of those games pretty convincingly. Lost at A&M and lost to MSU at home.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

The whole point is that you can just throw A&M, Arkansas, MSU, and OM in a hat. They are all basically on the same level. I would put Auburn in that group too, before Nix went down.

A&M - Beat Auburn but lost to the other three teams in respectable games. Arkansas and MSU caught them at a good time, and OM got them at home in a game where they had some key turnovers late.

Arkansas - Beat A&M at neutral site, lost a coin flip game at OM, won a coin flip game at home against MSU, and lost to Auburn at home. Had the misfortune of playing at Georgia, so that hurts their SEC record.

OM - Beat A&M at home and won a coin flip game against Arkansas. Lost at Auburn, and we’ll see how the Egg Bowl goes.

MSU - Won at A&M and at Auburn but lost a coin flip game at Arkansas. Also screwed around and lost to LSU/Memphis early in the season before things appeared to click. We’ll see how the Egg Bowl goes

Auburn - Beat OM and won at Arkansas, both of those games pretty convincingly. Lost at A&M and lost to MSU at home.

A classic case of the SEC beating the **** out of one another again. This is why you just can't compare the gauntlet West teams have to run through to that of any other conference.

 

[Msdeltareb]

True...and if we got to replay the Auburn game we'd be 10-1 right now.

 

[Smoked Toag]

True...and if we got to replay the Auburn game we'd be 10-1 right now.

I think he's using that past data to judge how we stack up to Ole Miss, this week, in this specific game. Not to say we should be 9-2.

Relax, buddy.

 

[Starkville_Native]

People are having a hard time grasping this. The playoff is supposed to work the same way. All I hear is, "FoUr BeSt TeAmS!!11". No, it's the 4 best teams VIA THE RESUME (which includes record, SOS, power indexes, etc.).

I remember when people said Florida State shouldn't have made the playoff in 2014 because they didn't pass the eye test. WTF?? They were 13-0 in a Power 5 conference with 3 P5 OOC opponents!! If they didn't deserve, we may as well not even play.

I'm convinced people are intentionally being stupid.

Well said. There is no eye test. If anyone wants to know how the committee ranks, follow Dave Bartoo. No one has figured this out better. They rank based on hard metrics - mainly SOS, game control, top-25 wins.

 

[Smoked Toag]

The whole point is that you can just throw A&M, Arkansas, MSU, and OM in a hat. They are all basically on the same level. I would put Auburn in that group too, before Nix went down.

A&M - Beat Auburn but lost to the other three teams in respectable games. Arkansas and MSU caught them at a good time, and OM got them at home in a game where they had some key turnovers late.

Arkansas - Beat A&M at neutral site, lost a coin flip game at OM, won a coin flip game at home against MSU, and lost to Auburn at home. Had the misfortune of playing at Georgia, so that hurts their SEC record.

OM - Beat A&M at home and won a coin flip game against Arkansas. Lost at Auburn, and we’ll see how the Egg Bowl goes.

MSU - Won at A&M and at Auburn but lost a coin flip game at Arkansas. Also screwed around and lost to LSU/Memphis early in the season before things appeared to click. We’ll see how the Egg Bowl goes

Auburn - Beat OM and won at Arkansas, both of those games pretty convincingly. Lost at A&M and lost to MSU at home.

If we beat Ole Miss, I think you can say that we are the best of that bunch with a 3-1 record against the others. And bowls are tied into the SEC, so if that's the case, we ought to get the Citrus Bowl.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

True...and if we got to replay the Auburn game we'd be 10-1 right now.

Now that Bo Nix has gone down, you are probably right.

But if you had to play Arkansas and Tennessee again, no way OM wins both.

 

[patdog]

Way to completely miss the point of a post.

 

[wsjmsu75]

If we beat Ole Miss, I think you can say that we are the best of that bunch with a 3-1 record against the others. And bowls are tied into the SEC, so if that's the case, we ought to get the Citrus Bowl.

I agree, however if history is an indicator, we will get screwed out of it. Thanks SEC refs.