ON3 Prediction for CFB's 12-team playoff field

[LafayetteBear]

SIAP. Why am I not surprised that they have Penn State as the very first team in the "Just Missed" category? Sigh. I sure hope that does not happen.

College Football Playoff: Predicting the inaugural 12-team CFP field, 2024 national champion

Predicting the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Who are the top-four seeds? Who else is an at-large bid? Who misses the cut?

www.on3.com

 

[VaDave4PSU]

SIAP. Why am I not surprised that they have Penn State as the very first team in the "Just Missed" category? Sigh. I sure hope that does not happen.

College Football Playoff: Predicting the inaugural 12-team CFP field, 2024 national champion

Predicting the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Who are the top-four seeds? Who else is an at-large bid? Who misses the cut?

www.on3.com

Because they didn't play through the schedule. Michigan gets in at 9. They play OSU, Oregon, and Texas. Yet somehow those are the 2nd, 5th, and 6th team?

I don't think so. 3 loss Michigan isn't getting in. Neither Oregon nor Texas would be 5/6 with a 2nd loss.

It's power rankings with a spin to generate clicks.

 

[Nitt1300]

SIAP. Why am I not surprised that they have Penn State as the very first team in the "Just Missed" category? Sigh. I sure hope that does not happen.

College Football Playoff: Predicting the inaugural 12-team CFP field, 2024 national champion

Predicting the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Who are the top-four seeds? Who else is an at-large bid? Who misses the cut?

www.on3.com

That would so make Midnighter's day

 

[Midnighter]

That would so make Midnighter's day

 

[Midnighter]

SIAP. Why am I not surprised that they have Penn State as the very first team in the "Just Missed" category? Sigh. I sure hope that does not happen.

College Football Playoff: Predicting the inaugural 12-team CFP field, 2024 national champion

Predicting the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Who are the top-four seeds? Who else is an at-large bid? Who misses the cut?

www.on3.com

Five SEC teams and only three B1G? I think four is gonna be the cap from any conference unless there are clear standouts.

 

[Bvillebaron]

SIAP. Why am I not surprised that they have Penn State as the very first team in the "Just Missed" category? Sigh. I sure hope that does not happen.

College Football Playoff: Predicting the inaugural 12-team CFP field, 2024 national champion

Predicting the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Who are the top-four seeds? Who else is an at-large bid? Who misses the cut?

www.on3.com

That prediction and a dollar will get me a soda out of the machine at work (finally upped it from 75 cents after all these years).

 

[jp3272]

PSU at #13. Take it to the bank.

 

[blion72]

Because they didn't play through the schedule. Michigan gets in at 9. They play OSU, Oregon, and Texas. Yet somehow those are the 2nd, 5th, and 6th team?

I don't think so. 3 loss Michigan isn't getting in. Neither Oregon nor Texas would be 5/6 with a 2nd loss.

It's power rankings with a spin to generate clicks.

that is correct. if you want to predict you need to play out or simulate the results of every team. Hard to see any team with 3 losses getting in. Not sure if the G5 team can be eliminated if they are not above a certain rank. There will be enough 1 and 2 loss teams that it will be hard to jam 3 loss team into the result. i can see PSU with 2 losses, but where are the 3 losses. I know a guy on 247 picked us for 4 losses.

 

[VaDave4PSU]

that is correct. if you want to predict you need to play out or simulate the results of every team. Hard to see any team with 3 losses getting in. Not sure if the G5 team can be eliminated if they are not above a certain rank. There will be enough 1 and 2 loss teams that it will be hard to jam 3 loss team into the result. i can see PSU with 2 losses, but where are the 3 losses. I know a guy on 247 picked us for 4 losses.

If we have 4 losses, Wisconsin and...I don't know, maybe WVU? Assuming they picked OSU and USC.

 

[J.E.B]

Yep, watch out for WVU and Wisky. Already logged in losses vs. USC and O$U. Minnesota out there in November won’t be easy, either.

 

[Moogy]

Because they didn't play through the schedule. Michigan gets in at 9. They play OSU, Oregon, and Texas. Yet somehow those are the 2nd, 5th, and 6th team?

I don't think so. 3 loss Michigan isn't getting in. Neither Oregon nor Texas would be 5/6 with a 2nd loss.

It's power rankings with a spin to generate clicks.

Who says Michigan is going to have 3 losses? I'm not bothering to go through everyone's schedule and predict all the intertwined Ws and Ls, but just because you're ranked lower than a squad doesn't mean you lost to them. Hypothetically, Michigan could beat Texas, and lose to OSU and Oregon (or some other iteration of Ws and Ls), but Texas could end up ranked higher than Michigan based on the rest of their respective outcomes.

 

[PSUFTG2]

that is correct. if you want to predict you need to play out or simulate the results of every team. Hard to see any team with 3 losses getting in. Not sure if the G5 team can be eliminated if they are not above a certain rank. There will be enough 1 and 2 loss teams that it will be hard to jam 3 loss team into the result. i can see PSU with 2 losses, but where are the 3 losses. I know a guy on 247 picked us for 4 losses.

Over the last 10 years (not counting 2020) there would have been 16 teams in the Field of 12 with 3 losses.

So, while it is not "for sure", it is highly likely that at least one 3-loss team will be in in any given years (I believe there were just 2 years where no 3 loss teams would have been in)- and more likely that there will be multiple 3 loss teams, than that there would be no 3 loss teams.
If the TV folks start to demand more "good-vs-good" conference games (which seems to be already starting in the Big 10) the number of 3-loss-and-in teams will only go up.

 

[PSUFTG2]

Yep, watch out for WVU and Wisky. Already logged in losses vs. USC and O$U. Minnesota out there in November won’t be easy, either.

College football can be funny from year to year, and things can change in a hurry, but USC, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were dumpster fires last year - and the rosters for each don't appear to have improved much (if at all).

But you never know.

 

[ApexLion]

Five SEC teams and only three B1G? I think four is gonna be the cap from any conference unless there are clear standouts.

I would go with 12 SEC teams and have a huge pot of $$$ to the winners.

 

[VaDave4PSU]

Who says Michigan is going to have 3 losses? I'm not bothering to go through everyone's schedule and predict all the intertwined Ws and Ls, but just because you're ranked lower than a squad doesn't mean you lost to them. Hypothetically, Michigan could beat Texas, and lose to OSU and Oregon (or some other iteration of Ws and Ls), but Texas could end up ranked higher than Michigan based on the rest of their respective outcomes.

The outcome you mentioned is a possibility, but I was going through the schedules and trying to make the rankings fit. That's why I wrote what I wrote.

Texas couldn't logically be #5 without going 11-1, beating Michigan and losing to #1 UGA. (Not factoring in ccgs)

 

[PSUwolf]

I think the Lions get in the 12 team Playoff but (hope I don't get banned) just don't see anyone beating OSU this year after returning almost everyone of their players and absolutely killing it in the Portal

 

[VaDave4PSU]

I think the Lions get in the 12 team Playoff but (hope I don't get banned) just don't see anyone beating OSU this year after returning almost everyone of their players and absolutely killing it in the Portal

The weight of expectations along with the ones who will naturally ease up due to NIL money along with a new QB and a questionable OL are daunting. They still have to outmuscle a Michigan. They still have a road trip to HV. And they have a revamped Oregon on the schedule. 8 home games is favorable, but their 2 of their 3 road games are the 2 of the 3 toughest games they play. And the Michigan monkey can't be forgotten.

 

[LafayetteBear]

College football can be funny from year to year, and things can change in a hurry, but USC, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were dumpster fires last year - and the rosters for each don't appear to have improved much (if at all).

This ^^^^ is what I'm thinking, and hoping. Particularly for USC.

 

[LionJim]

Heather Dinich on ESPN this morning was asked about PSU’s chances of going to the CFP and she said, “Everything depends on their West Virginia game.”

 

[dcf4psu]

Heather Dinich on ESPN this morning was asked about PSU’s chances of going to the CFP and she said, “Everything depends on their West Virginia game.”

I didn't realize that game is already two weeks from Saturday on Aug-31st. With that said I'm not sure everything depends on that game. Regardless I don't believe we will finish in the top 12 this year.

 

[HarrisburgDave]

There will be many teams with 2 losses or fewer in the regular season this year. Likely more than a dozen.

To get into the playoff you will have to beat a team that matters. By that I mean a team with a legitimate claim to the 12 team playoff.

When was the last time Penn State had a win like that on their resume?

 

[ODShowtime]

Heather Dinich on ESPN this morning was asked about PSU’s chances of going to the CFP and she said, “Everything depends on their West Virginia game.”

I had a dream last night that we lost to WV.