Operation Chaos

[pseudonym]

I'm pulling for chaos in the first year of the 12-team CFP.

• 11-1 Georgia (loss to Alabama)
• 11-1 Oregon (loss to Michigan)
• 11-1 Ohio State (loss to Oregon)
• 11-1 Notre Dame (loss to Texas A&M)
• 11-1 Penn State (loss to Ohio State)
• 10-2 Michigan (losses to Texas and Ohio State)
• 10-2 Alabama (losses to LSU and Oklahoma)
• 10-2 LSU (losses to Texas A&M and Oklahoma)
• 10-2 Ole Miss (losses to LSU and Georgia)
• 10-2 Missouri (losses to Alabama and Oklahoma)
• 10-2 Oklahoma (losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss)
• 10-2 Tennessee (losses to Alabama and Georgia)
• 10-2 Texas (losses to Oklahoma and Georgia)
• 10-2 Texas A&M (losses to Missouri and Texas)

I realize that is extremely unlikely, so I would accept a tiny version of this.

For those curious, the combined maximum number of bids from the SEC, Big Ten, independents, and former Pac-12 schools is nine, which means at least five of the above teams will not make the CFP, regardless of records.

 

[johnson86-1]

Assuming everybody had some decent wins:

Five 1-loss teams are in:

• 11-1 Georgia (loss to Alabama)
• 11-1 Oregon (loss to Michigan)
• 11-1 Ohio State (loss to Oregon)
• 11-1 Notre Dame (loss to Texas A&M)
• 11-1 Penn State (loss to Ohio State)

You aren't going to have more Big 10 schoosl than SEC. The next two SEC teams are going to be

• 10-2 Alabama (losses to LSU and Oklahoma)
• 10-2 Texas (losses to Oklahoma and Georgia)

Bama because Bama. Texas because Texas and it leave an argument to let Michigan in. Then politics comes into play and it ends up being:

• 10-2 Michigan (losses to Texas and Ohio State)

• 10-2 Tennessee (losses to Alabama and Georgia)

Michigan to satisfy the Big 10 and because at this point their two losses are to playoff teams, and Tennessee because they have two playoff team losses.

LSU loses out because they lost to non-playoff team A&M.
Ole Miss loses out because they're ole Miss and have a loss to non-playoff team LSU.
Missouri is out because they are Missouri and lost to non-playoff team Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is out because of a loss to non-playoff team Ole Miss.
A&M is out because they lost to Missouir and they're not Texas.

All circular and political logic, so seems easily predictable. Only potential wrench is whether Big10 schools and ORegon can still have a weak schedule with the new setup, which I haven't looked at. Could be some of those teams would have no good wins and a loss or two against the only good teams they play.

 

[pseudonym]

Assuming everybody had some decent wins:

Five 1-loss teams are in:


You aren't going to have more Big 10 schoosl than SEC. The next two SEC teams are going to be



Bama because Bama. Texas because Texas and it leave an argument to let Michigan in. Then politics comes into play and it ends up being:







Michigan to satisfy the Big 10 and because at this point their two losses are to playoff teams, and Tennessee because they have two playoff team losses.

LSU loses out because they lost to non-playoff team A&M.
Ole Miss loses out because they're ole Miss and have a loss to non-playoff team LSU.
Missouri is out because they are Missouri and lost to non-playoff team Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is out because of a loss to non-playoff team Ole Miss.
A&M is out because they lost to Missouir and they're not Texas.

All circular and political logic, so seems easily predictable. Only potential wrench is whether Big10 schools and ORegon can still have a weak schedule with the new setup, which I haven't looked at. Could be some of those teams would have no good wins and a loss or two against the only good teams they play.

To be clear, these were not in any particular order. The main point is more than a handful of teams from this group with 10+ wins is going to cause chaos. I just looked at schedules to see how many teams I could get to 10+ wins. In fact, finding another loss for those 11-1 teams only adds to the chaos.

The Big Ten plus Notre Dame is likely to produce 4+ teams with 10+ wins. Oregon, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, and Michigan's schedules make it difficult to find 3+ losses for 2+ of that group.

At least the SEC is more balanced. So some of the SEC teams I listed are likely to have 3+ losses. But chaos is still likely if you assume a couple of things:

• Big Ten and Notre Dame get four bids.
• Georgia and Texas both get a bid.

That would only leave three maximum bids for this cohort:

• Alabama
• Missouri
• Tennessee
• Oklahoma
• Ole Miss
• LSU
• Texas A&M

All this assumes that the ACC and Big 12 are one-bid leagues, which they probably should be.

 

[Anon1669338224]

I don't know why everyone is so high on A&M. It's every year, and lately they have been ****. I mean they've lost to us every other year the last decade.