OT: crypto mooning today
- Thread starter PBDog
- Start date
Hasn’t we decided crypto is more or less mirroring the greater equities markets now? I see Bitcoin up 11% in November. That’s in the ballpark with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P.
As far as today’s movement - who knows.
As far as today’s movement - who knows.
found it - 99% chance etf to be approved 2nd week of january giving $100T access to spot btc.
It’s the underlying Bitcoin earnings growth. Duh.
I don't know anything about crypto (other than it's mostly scams), but bitcoin is doing well right now because of the conviction of people holding bitcoin keys.
Over 57% of the bitcoin supply has not moved in 2 years. That is significant when you consider that in that time bitcoin went from $69k to $16k and now over $40k. Anyone that didn't sell through that price action is not likely to sell below ATHs. And a lot will not sell below $100k.
Add to that conviction the block subsidy halving in April 2024 and there is simply a major shortage of bitcoin at these prices. To be honest, I don't think we have seen significant demand come into the market yet. When that happens we'll be at ATHs pretty quickly.
ETA:
In addition to holder conviction and supply schedule dynamics, the TL;DR is fiat liquidity. Liquidity expands, bitcoin price go up. Liquidity contracts (2022), bitcoin price go down.
I wonder if central banks around the world will print more money this decade...
Over 57% of the bitcoin supply has not moved in 2 years. That is significant when you consider that in that time bitcoin went from $69k to $16k and now over $40k. Anyone that didn't sell through that price action is not likely to sell below ATHs. And a lot will not sell below $100k.
Add to that conviction the block subsidy halving in April 2024 and there is simply a major shortage of bitcoin at these prices. To be honest, I don't think we have seen significant demand come into the market yet. When that happens we'll be at ATHs pretty quickly.
ETA:
In addition to holder conviction and supply schedule dynamics, the TL;DR is fiat liquidity. Liquidity expands, bitcoin price go up. Liquidity contracts (2022), bitcoin price go down.
I wonder if central banks around the world will print more money this decade...
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Took me a few times of reading this to realize you werent saying bitcoin is doing well because so many with bitcoin were convicted(legal sense).
I am clearly out of my element on crypto.
...my small stash of crypto thru Fidelity has gone from $600 to $950 in the last couple months. Closing in on retirement level funds!**
The first thing I would tell you is bitcoin in a Fidelity account (or any other brokerage/exchange/custodian) is not "your stash" of bitcoin. It is an I.O.U. So however risky you think bitcoin is, you are unnecessarily adding layers of counter-party risk.
I don't know anything about crypto (other than it's mostly scams), but bitcoin is doing well right now because of the conviction of people holding bitcoin keys.
Over 57% of the bitcoin supply has not moved in 2 years. That is significant when you consider that in that time bitcoin went from $69k to $16k and now over $40k. Anyone that didn't sell through that price action is not likely to sell below ATHs. And a lot will not sell below $100k.
Add to that conviction the block subsidy halving in April 2024 and there is simply a major shortage of bitcoin at these prices. To be honest, I don't think we have seen significant demand come into the market yet. When that happens we'll be at ATHs pretty quickly.
ETA:
In addition to holder conviction and supply schedule dynamics, the TL;DR is fiat liquidity. Liquidity expands, bitcoin price go up. Liquidity contracts (2022), bitcoin price go down.
View attachment 468041
I wonder if central banks around the world will print more money this decade...
the confluence of jan 8 etf approval, the halving, and fed rate cut could send this thing into the 100k+
You joke but Ethereum is the only chain that is profitable. Produces 2.7 billion dollars in profit a year. If you compare it to say, Amazon, it’s extremely undervalued.
But, what’s SUPER weird is that Ethereum has not hit its bull run yet…it’s being crushed by Bitcoin and Solana. So…either we are looking at a gigantic crash of Ethereum (unlikely but possible) with a corresponding bull run of Solana, or Ethereum is going to absolutely explode in 2024.
Edited to add…I’m on the wrong side, I have a large amount of ethereum
Im holding but only 10% of that amount in Bitcoin and Solana each.
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That's the problem with Bitcoin. It was designed to create an artificial lack of supply. But the alternative coins provide an alternative supply. So it's really just digital Beanie Babies. Enjoy the ride, but the crash will come eventually.
Do Altcoins Create Inflation for Bitcoin?
Altcoins do not create inflation for bitcoin because they are a different asset than bitcoin. Likewise, a new IPO on the New York Stock Exchange does not create inflation for existing stocks. This is because bitcoin is a unique asset and is not fungible* with other cryptocurrencies. While other cryptocurrencies may launch and inflate their supply, none of these coins, not even hard forks of bitcoin, can be introduced to the bitcoin supply or passed off as real bitcoin. Thus, there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins.
*-Fungibility is a property of goods which are interchangeable and indistinguishable. For example, pennies are all worth $0.01 and ownership of one penny is not preferable over any other penny.
I was gonna respond but poster below already did. Bitcoin is not a competitor of Ethereum or Solana. Bitcoin is digital gold, but it has even less intrinsic value than gold.
Ethereum and Solana are competing head to head for space. Ethereum is way ahead but Solana is gaining ground.
Miners, network validators, and holders (me, ie those that have staked their Ethereum).
Just to be clear, if I stake and hold my Ethereum (and the price of Ethereum holds steady) my return in a year will be roughly 5%.
Or you could put it in an FDIC insured savings account and get the same return
Sure, and I do. But, good luck getting that rate in 2019 and 2025. And good luck getting a near 50% return since the beginning of this year on top of that 5%.
That seems to satisfy the Howey Test. Is Ethereum going to register with the SEC?
SEC Chairman Gensler Suggests Again That Proof-of-Stake Tokens Are Securities: Report
Ha. Who would register Ethereum? It has more qualities of a commodity than a security. Crypto is its own animal, hence the need for legislation.
Talk slowly here, please.
Why would I compare Ethereum to Amazon? And if I do compare the two, why is Ethereum undervalued when compared to Amazon?
If you compare Ethereum to Ford, is it still extremely undervalued? <-- I picked Ford out of thin air since I dont even know what is being compared or why to assess valuation.
We have had what, 3 Bitcoin crashes or 4? That Bitcoin “will never recover from.” I can’t remember the narrative.
Validators validate, I get that. Pretty sure they take a % of a transaction for that validation. But that isnt really Ethereum earnings as its that person being paid for the 'work' they have chosen to do. That just seems like a transfer of money for work for the individual.
If I set up a validation service, then any revenue I produce from my validation service is apparently earnings for Ethereum.
So if I understand your comment correctly, if I buy fabric and sew some shirts, any shirt I sell is earnings for the company that made that fabric.
...that seems not correct.
I guess I just wouldnt quantify it at all. If earnings arent being produced by Ethereum as a company, then I wouldnt associate earnings to Ethereum.
Those earnings arent Ethereum's to claim, they are the earnings of the person/collective/organization that is validating.
It seems like you are trying to centralize something(earnings) that is inherently decentralized(Ethereum) in order to show how undervalued Ethereum is. But it isnt Ethereum that holds the earnings you cite- its people who use Ethereum as a product for their own business(validation).
This is an interesting approach to thinking about product, services, and earnings. Cool to consider.
What’s mindblowing is that Ethereum has created an entirely new space to do business/make money. It’s certainly at the expense of other arenas but im not smart enough to know exactly what it is replacing/modifying.
Thats.... not how things work. Think of McDonalds. It would be a mistake to say no other entity could come in and compete with Micky Ds. Because of course many did, there was profit to be had. And of course McDs is still around, first mover and name recognition and all that. Bitcoin has that going for it. But imagine if McDs was designed so that the supply of Quarter Pounders was going to (relatively) decrease over time. And that investors saw this as an inevitable increase in what people would pay for those supply limited fake burgers. No, people will just go to Wendy's. Etherium is Wendy's.
hasn’t the actually return been negative the last few years
yea these boomers trust their govt too much.
You are describing competition. I was responding to your post suggesting that the creation of altcoins creates inflation for bitcoin. You are welcome to create as many alternatives to bitcoin as you want*. It does not affect the 21 million supply cap of bitcoin, even if you believe they will compete with bitcoin. Another example: You may believe that silver is a competitor to gold. Historically, it has been. But the production of silver does not affect the supply of gold, and vice versa.
As far as altcoins competing with bitcoin, here are some questions you should be asking:
- What Differentiates Bitcoin From Other Projects?
- Network Effects and Recognizability
- Lindy Effects and Reliability
- Antifragility
- Do Altcoins Create Inflation for Bitcoin? (addressed in my post above)
- Why Won’t a Superior Altcoin Overtake Bitcoin?
- Are Altcoins Scarce?
ETA:
*-When I first started learning about bitcoin (2016), there were fewer than 1 thousand cryptocurrencies. According to CoinMarketCap, there are over 2 million cryptocurrencies today. #1 (bitcoin) has a larger market cap than the combined market cap of every other cryptocurrency. You can print crypto. You can't print bitcoin.
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Indeed.
that was not my suggestion.
You have things backwards. Historically, if the supply of gold became constrained and prices spiked.....people turned to silver. That's how competition works. The supply of Bitcoin will constrain (by design), so why would we expect something different that what all fo history has shown?
As Daniel Tosh said: honey, you're not compteting with A *****......you're competing with ALLLLLLLL the whores.
Bitcoin does not offer anything that can't be provided by a competitor. It is not magic. It cannot just spike on price forever without offering anything of value. And you are not the first to fall for a pitch that it can. It's a tale as old as money.
If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.
Meanwhile, ET is paying out 10% dividends. But y’all stay away, I don’t won’t share price to keep going up.
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