OT - Farmers - Question about Wheat Production

[greenbean.sixpack]

With Ukraine and Russia suppling a quarter of the world's wheat, will the current conflict lead to more MS farmers planting wheat in the fall? Back in the 70s we doubled cropped wheat and soybeans, but I don' think that is done as much in the delta any more? I'm assuming this can't be done every year?

Also where wheat was initially planted as a cover crop what is the feasibility of harvesting it?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Most wheat that’s planted here is double crop. There may be an increase in wheat acres but I don’t think it’s going to change much.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Russia controls a lots of the worlds fertilizer as well.

 

[57stratdawg]

Saw this morning there could be disruption for the bourbon industry with the spring crops. Logistic delays at the very least.

This has gone too far.

 

[GloryDawg]

I think the invasion is going to end sooner than people think. It's the cites being shot up. The farms will be ok. Plus it's several months before they need to plant.

 

[Beretta.sixpack]

This years farm cycle is going to be a rollercoaster....

Usually by late November, growers know what they are going to plant.....spoke to a few near Holly Bluff last week that still havent decided....inputs are very high...

Fertilizer last week was $1000/ton and going up....specifc seeds and chemicals are in very short supply.....my company is all but sold out and what remains is on supply plan....

Not much wheat is grown in the delta....some in the hills of east ms....dont see a lot of wheat until you get to north alabama and se tn.....some, but not much.....what is grown here for the most part is corn, soybeans and cotton....corn will decline, and you will see a lot more soybeans due to low input costs of growing....

 

[Shmuley]

Don't forget the port operations around Odessa. If the war impacts the port operations there, that's a problem.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Usually by late November, growers know what they are going to plant.....spoke to a few near Holly Bluff last week that still havent decided....inputs are very high...

Fertilizer last week was $1000/ton and going up....specifc seeds and chemicals are in very short supply.....my company is all but sold out and what remains is on supply plan....

Not much wheat is grown in the delta....some in the hills of east ms....dont see a lot of wheat until you get to north alabama and se tn.....some, but not much.....what is grown here for the most part is corn, soybeans and cotton....corn will decline, and you will see a lot more soybeans due to low input costs of growing....

Cotton is very expensive to grow and can't be doubled cropped, right? Therefore with the higher cost of fertilizer, etc., will there be less cotton planted?

 

[GloryDawg]

Don't forget the port operations around Odessa. If the war impacts the port operations there, that's a problem.

True! I didn't think about that. I don't think this goes on more than another three weeks. Russia is hurting and their military is running out supplies and thier logistics really sucks. I'm not just talking about the troops in Ukraine. His entire military is on a verge of collapsing. He is now offering big money to mercenaries. Putin is now on a clock and is going to go all in but he will fail and then start to look for a face saving way out of it. I said it here on this board a few weeks ago before the invasion that the Ukraine military was no joke. They have been being trained by NATO since 2014. Plus the Russians did the one thing you never do. That is attack in column down a road with no way to go into line. Their operation planning is horrible.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Usually by late November, growers know what they are going to plant.....spoke to a few near Holly Bluff last week that still havent decided....inputs are very high...

Fertilizer last week was $1000/ton and going up....specifc seeds and chemicals are in very short supply.....my company is all but sold out and what remains is on supply plan....

Not much wheat is grown in the delta....some in the hills of east ms....dont see a lot of wheat until you get to north alabama and se tn.....some, but not much.....what is grown here for the most part is corn, soybeans and cotton....corn will decline, and you will see a lot more soybeans due to low input costs of growing....

We grew it in Grenada County (on some of the small amount of flat land off Highway 7). I don't remember why we stopped, it was in the late 70s/early 80s and the old man has long since been in the ground (i didn't follow in the family legacy).

 

[LandDawg]

I think Cotton acreage will be about the same as last yr especially in area I serve, which is Noxubee, Lowndes, Clay, Webster, Monroe & Chickasaw. Dec cotton is ~$1.05/lb. At those prices and with average yields, they can make cotton work.

 

[GloryDawg]

Usually by late November, growers know what they are going to plant.....spoke to a few near Holly Bluff last week that still havent decided....inputs are very high...

Fertilizer last week was $1000/ton and going up....specifc seeds and chemicals are in very short supply.....my company is all but sold out and what remains is on supply plan....

Not much wheat is grown in the delta....some in the hills of east ms....dont see a lot of wheat until you get to north alabama and se tn.....some, but not much.....what is grown here for the most part is corn, soybeans and cotton....corn will decline, and you will see a lot more soybeans due to low input costs of growing....

Does it take a lot of fertilizer to grow wheat?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Cotton people will grow cotton because they have the equipment and they’ve got to pay the note on it. A new JD baling picker is a smooth million dollars.

 

[kb549]

Russia controls a lots of the worlds fertilizer as well.

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View attachment 24054 It comes from View attachment 24055

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Depends on your yield goal. Usually most people around here put out around 100 lbs per acre.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Apropos of this topic, I ran across this book today: Oceans of Grain.

The blurb from Amazon:

A revelatory global history shows how cheap American grain toppled the world’s largest empires

To understand the rise and fall of empires, we must follow the paths traveled by grain—along rivers, between ports, and across seas. In Oceans of Grain, historian Scott Reynolds Nelson reveals how the struggle to dominate these routes transformed the balance of world power.

Early in the nineteenth century, imperial Russia fed much of Europe through the booming port of Odessa. But following the US Civil War, tons of American wheat began to flood across the Atlantic, and food prices plummeted. This cheap foreign grain spurred the rise of Germany and Italy, the decline of the Habsburgs and the Ottomans, and the European scramble for empire. It was a crucial factor in the outbreak of the First World War and the Russian Revolution.

A powerful new interpretation, Oceans of Grain shows that amid the great powers’ rivalries, there was no greater power than control of grain.

 

[Beretta.sixpack]

^^^this^^^

i saw where a new picker was going for 1.1M....a decent used one going for 800-900K.....

they plant cotton bc they have the money invested into it....I asked a grower last week if he would do more beans, and he told me most likely no.....instead of some corn, some beans, and mostly cotton they would most likely go 100% cotton....said its takes 80 bushel beans 'just to tow the line' with cotton.....and having two pickers and two bank notes on them.....well, you get the picture....

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Revelation 6:6 “ A quart of wheat for a days wages, and 3 quarts of barley for a days wages, and do not harm the oil and the wine.”

 

[johnson86-1]

Cotton people will grow cotton because they have the equipment and they’ve got to pay the note on it. A new JD baling picker is a smooth million dollars.

Man, it seemed like the delta went from Cotton to corn overnight. I'm sure a lot of farmers gradually shifted as they had cotton equipment that they didn't want to replace, but to somebody driving through regularly not paying attention, it felt like it went from primarily cotton and soybeans to primarily corn and soybeans in a season or two.

 

[dorndawg]

The Canadian Pacific railroad bout to be on strike, also. Buckle up.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8684175/...m-amid-concern-over-potential-cp-rail-strike/