OT: HBP, your thoughts on what is a-brewing?

[dawgman42]

Say just before Labor Day?
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[Hugh's Burner Phone]

GFS has been in again off again developing a tropical system and moving it into the gulf. The 18z run chose violence with its solution, but that's not surprising this far out. The more reliable 00z run comes out around midnight. One thing to keep in mind is that we are almost to the peak of hurricane season (sept. 10) so things are about as conducive as they can be for tropical development. Due to that the long range models are constantly trying to develop tropical systems. They'll put them in a couple runs and then take them out. That said, the GFS has really been wanting to develop a low over the southern Caribbean and move it up into the Gulf. Once we get inside 240 hours it will be interesting to see what the Euro and Canadian models show. If they pick up on the same thing then it might be time to really start paying attention.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

To show the wild variability among model runs the 00Z run of the GFS took the hurricane up the eastern seaboard of FL. The latest run (06Z) is now taking it into central LA. I will say this is now on my radar as the GFS has at least become consistent in developing a tropical system in early September. So if you have any interests anywhere in the Gulf I would start keeping abreast of things. Here is the latest outlook from the NHC outlook.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

00z run has it going along coast and into Texas. Not good for the petroleum industry.

 

[Dawgbite]

To show the wild variability among model runs the 00Z run of the GFS took the hurricane up the eastern seaboard of FL. The latest run (06Z) is now taking it into central LA. I will say this is now on my radar as the GFS has at least become consistent in developing a tropical system in early September. So if you have any interests anywhere in the Gulf I would start keeping abreast of things. Here is the latest outlook from the NHC outlook.

Are you referring to the first or second storm?

 

[dawgman42]

That GFS model has had a storm hitting the eastern Florida Panhandle all the way to plowing through Corpus Christi, and several places in between. Just too much uncertainty at this point.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Are you referring to the first or second storm?

Probably the second.

 

[Xenomorph]

UT will never catch Harvard now.. **

 

[Smoked Toag]

We just got over a foot of rain and are expecting more with flooding everywhere. Let's relax with the hurricane spazz-off until it actually happens.

 

[mcdawg22]

We just got over a foot of rain and are expecting more with flooding everywhere. Let's relax with the hurricane spazz-off until it actually happens.

If we get anything with wind in the panhandle and our current pattern continues, it could be bad for trees. We have had close to 30 inches of rain since the first of July and the ground is saturated and it just keeps raining every day.