OT: Honda and Nissan merging. What happens in Canton?

greenbean.sixpack

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Oct 6, 2012
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We have been hearing “the ICE market will soon be a niche business” since the 2000’s. Here it is a few days from 2025 and crude oil drilling is still booming while EV charging infrastructure is still practically nonexistent outside of Tesla. And even Tesla is fairly scarce considering.

And 50% EV in 10 years? Not happening. There would have to be more sales of EVs happening right now to meet that. And Ford has even scaled back its EV production.
EVs have their place, but it's not even remotely close being 50% of passenger vehicles in the US.
 

Dawgzilla2

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Oct 9, 2022
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EVs are approaching 15% of new car sales in the US. We will almost certainly reach that point in 2025. If not, it will be early 2026. After that, mass adoption will rapidly escalate, so that EVs may very well capture 50% of the new car market by 2030.

The sticking point really is range. Once these solid state batteries are ready for mass production, range anxiety will be erased. Infrastructure will be an easier transition, too, since people won't need to charge as often.

I don't understand why the auto manufacturers are not heavily researching other zero emission technologies, though. Toyota was making great strides in hydrogen technology, but seems to have abandoned it. Seems like methanol or ethanol powered engines would be an option, but only Indy Car seems interested anymore.
 

patdog

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May 28, 2007
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EV's are not just battery only electric vehicles (BEV's), but PHEV's, and hybrids as well. And 50% isn't my number, it's from JD power. Maybe its 40% or maybe its 60%, but we are already at 21%.


View attachment 723747


I live in one of the most remote areas of the lower 48. It's over 100 miles to McDonald's or Wal-Mart. I currently drive a good old fashioned F-250 gas guzzler. My wife has a PHEV Jeep. Her next car will likely be all electric. Mine while hopefully by a hybrid or BEV with range extender for towing. My 82 year old neighbor just ordered a Cybertruck after driving his wife's Cybertruck. My other neighbor just got a new Rivian. I actually reserved a Lightning years ago and when it finally came out it was nowhere near ready for what I need. But somebody is going to make a full size or heavy duty plug-in hybrid truck in the next 5 years and it will be a game changer.

Once you drive a good EV and feel the quiet and smooth ride it's hard to go back. Once you feel the torque and instant power, it's hard to go back. Much like cell phone's it's hit critical mass. Adoption will take a little time as we tend to keep vehicles for 4-5 years so many people who want one, haven't hit the market yet. Most people that have one, will continue to drive one as well.

View attachment 723766
PHEV & hybrids are very different from a fully electric vehicle. One or the other should be the vast majority of personal vehicles. With maybe 10-20% fully electric depending on user needs. 100% ICE just makes no sense.
 
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Mobile Bay

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Agreed. Oil will be critical for many things, nat gas even more so with energy production. But it will lose its role as the primary energy source for day to day transportation in the next decade or two.

I don't know why people get so pissed off when EV is mentioned. I mean, I hope it's because of the subsidies and mandates which is just more interference in the free market. But electric motors are way better than internal combustion and will eventually dominate the vehicle market. Even the US truck market. Batteries are the problem... for now, but if they improve as much they have in the last decade in the next you are looking at 650+ mile range.

Infrastructure feels like more of an opportunity than a problem. It could be a 20 year boom in our economy to rebuild our infrastructure switching from an ICE based world to electric. It's going to happen. Look at the market, aka the money.


Tesla is worth more than the next 60 automakers combined
Exxon plans to be one of the leading lithium suppliers in the world by 2030
Shell plans to close 1000 gas stations and have 200,000 EV charging points by 2030
Tesla's market cap is a bubble driven by Elon fanboys and Trump supporters.
 

patdog

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EVs are approaching 15% of new car sales in the US. We will almost certainly reach that point in 2025. If not, it will be early 2026. After that, mass adoption will rapidly escalate, so that EVs may very well capture 50% of the new car market by 2030.

The sticking point really is range. Once these solid state batteries are ready for mass production, range anxiety will be erased. Infrastructure will be an easier transition, too, since people won't need to charge as often.

I don't understand why the auto manufacturers are not heavily researching other zero emission technologies, though. Toyota was making great strides in hydrogen technology, but seems to have abandoned it. Seems like methanol or ethanol powered engines would be an option, but only Indy Car seems interested anymore.
I think hydrogen vehicles ran into some pretty insurmountable roadblocks. Methanol & ethanol are not much better than gasoline.
 
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Called3rdstrikedawg

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May 7, 2016
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I'm on my second Ridgeline. That hidden storage trunk under the truck bed is a big time addition. The ability to raise the back seats practically allows a flat floorboard for my German Shepherd while the other trucks, especially midsize, have a raised track making it impossible to have a flat floorboard. My Shepherd cannot get up the back seat in a truck. The Ridgeline works great for me!
 

Dawgzilla2

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Oct 9, 2022
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I think hydrogen vehicles ran into some pretty insurmountable roadblocks. Methanol & ethanol are not much better than gasoline.
The only roadblocks I'm aware of with hydrogen fuel was that it's even further behind in infrastructure than electric. It's still a very promising solution for commercial vehicles. We aren't going to be flying electric commercial jets anytime soon.

I know alcohol burning still creates greenhouse emissions, but you can also use CO2 to make methanol, and approach carbon neutrality. Could be a really simple solution if the gubmint would just subsidize some research.

But I'm really just spitballing here. If I owned an auto manufacturer, I would have a whole division researching zero emission options and mot just focus on electric.
 
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IBleedMaroonDawg

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Nov 12, 2007
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I own the Titan, and I've had two Rogues. I honestly believe the safety features of the Rogue saved my wife's life and her accident a few years back. I hate Nissan is going belly up, but that is the way the beast is now. I've never been able to buy a Honda. Those people will not deal with you, but I have to admit they're excellent vehicles.
 

Walkthedawg

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Oct 3, 2022
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I don't understand why the auto manufacturers are not heavily researching other zero emission technologies, though. Toyota was making great strides in hydrogen technology, but seems to have abandoned it. Seems like methanol or ethanol powered engines would be an option, but only Indy Car seems interested anymore.
Hydrogen would be great, but the logistics appear to doom it for now. The power to produce it large scale is immense. Then you have to store it, transfer it, store it again, then fill the fuel cells.

We cannot make tires to hold air that’s mainly nitrogen. It seems like a complete production and transfer system of the lightest gas in existence would leak A LOT.
 

3000lbchicken

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no way lol GIF by Rosanna Pansino
 
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Hydrogen would be great, but the logistics appear to doom it for now. The power to produce it large scale is immense. Then you have to store it, transfer it, store it again, then fill the fuel cells.

We cannot make tires to hold air that’s mainly nitrogen. It seems like a complete production and transfer system of the lightest gas in existence would leak A LOT.
There’s no telling the consequences from dumping tons of hydrogen from the leaks into the atmosphere would be. All types of power production have negative consequences.
 

NWADawg

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PooPopsBaldHead

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Tesla's market cap is a bubble driven by Elon fanboys and Trump supporters.
At some level you are right, but institutional ownership is still +/- 65% of TSLA. The market believes in electrification of vehicles.... Now fartcoin on the other hand, well I have nothing.

1000016744.png
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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PHEV & hybrids are very different from a fully electric vehicle. One or the other should be the vast majority of personal vehicles. With maybe 10-20% fully electric depending on user needs. 100% ICE just makes no sense.
I bought my current vehicle, a Crosstrek, 2 years ago for $35,000.

I tried to move mountains to get an ioniq5 EV and was willing to go to Colorado to buy one as that was the closest state selling them...but no dealers would sell one to someone out of state.

I then tried like hell to buy a rav4 hybrid or crv hybrid. The closest in stock was 350mi away and the rav4 was $49,500.
Doing the math with a +$.50 per gallon to the price of gas at the time, it was going to take like 12 years before I would break even in cost compared to my ICE Crosstrek.
And my Crosstrek has more safety driving features than that rav4 had.
...oh, and gas right now is less than it was them even.

We will try again in 18mo or so when my wife's vehicle goes to our youngest kid and she gets a new one.
Maybe the hybrid situation will work out then.
 
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RebelRH

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May 2, 2013
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2025 was supposed to be huge year for a large automotive lighting company we work with. It was for the EV market and they provide lighting for just about everybody. We recently heard from them it is all put on hold for now as in no new lines. We are also close to Oval City in TN. We are hearing it is in a slowdown right now. And it was primarily being built for the Ford EV market. So is the EV market moving forward or slowing down? To me it looks like slowing down.
 

patdog

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May 28, 2007
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I bought my current vehicle, a Crosstrek, 2 years ago for $35,000.

I tried to move mountains to get an ioniq5 EV and was willing to go to Colorado to buy one as that was the closest state selling them...but no dealers would sell one to someone out of state.

I then tried like hell to buy a rav4 hybrid or crv hybrid. The closest in stock was 350mi away and the rav4 was $49,500.
Doing the math with a +$.50 per gallon to the price of gas at the time, it was going to take like 12 years before I would break even in cost compared to my ICE Crosstrek.
And my Crosstrek has more safety driving features than that rav4 had.
...oh, and gas right now is less than it was them even.

We will try again in 18mo or so when my wife's vehicle goes to our youngest kid and she gets a new one.
Maybe the hybrid situation will work out then.
Close to same story here. Biggest problem with hybrids is the car makers mostly ignored them for too long to try to go straight to total electric. And the ones they did build were mostly under-powered crap. I bought my Mazda 6 turbo ICE for about $35000. Looked at hybrid Toyota Avalon and plug-in BMW 530e. The Avalon got over 40 mpg and wasn't too much more expensive. Great car, but not nearly as fun to drive & not as much power. 530e was great to drive, lots of power, & got 20 miles electric-only, so at least half my every day driving plus I'd have the convenience of a hybrid for trips. But it cost nearly $60,000. So I said screw it and bought the ICE, even though I wanted a hybrid and would have bought one if there were better options available.
 

horshack.sixpack

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Oct 30, 2012
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Close to same story here. Biggest problem with hybrids is the car makers mostly ignored them for too long to try to go straight to total electric. And the ones they did build were mostly under-powered crap. I bought my Mazda 6 turbo ICE for about $35000. Looked at hybrid Toyota Avalon and plug-in BMW 530e. The Avalon got over 40 mpg and wasn't too much more expensive. Great car, but not nearly as fun to drive & not as much power. 530e was great to drive, lots of power, & got 20 miles electric-only, so at least half my every day driving plus I'd have the convenience of a hybrid for trips. But it cost nearly $60,000. So I said screw it and bought the ICE, even though I wanted a hybrid and would have bought one if there were better options available.
2025 Camry is interesting to me. I know it is a vast departure, but I've been looking at M240i for something that gets decent mileage and is fun to drive. Something about the practicality of the new hybrid Camry caught my attention. I had also looked one of the used Avalon XSEs with the powerful V8. My pragmatism is trying to kill my desire for more fun.
 

Dawgbite

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Nov 1, 2011
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I bought my current vehicle, a Crosstrek, 2 years ago for $35,000.

I tried to move mountains to get an ioniq5 EV and was willing to go to Colorado to buy one as that was the closest state selling them...but no dealers would sell one to someone out of state.

I then tried like hell to buy a rav4 hybrid or crv hybrid. The closest in stock was 350mi away and the rav4 was $49,500.
Doing the math with a +$.50 per gallon to the price of gas at the time, it was going to take like 12 years before I would break even in cost compared to my ICE Crosstrek.
And my Crosstrek has more safety driving features than that rav4 had.
...oh, and gas right now is less than it was them even.

We will try again in 18mo or so when my wife's vehicle goes to our youngest kid and she gets a new one.
Maybe the hybrid situation will work out then.
We bought a Forrester about a year ago. The dealership had also gotten in on of the Subaru EVs. I was intrigued and told the salesman that I wanted to test drive it. He told me that he would not sell me that car. I kinda gave him a blank stare. He said that if he sold me that car he would lose any possibility of having me as a return customer. He flat out told me, you don’t want that vehicle.
 

Dawgzilla2

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Oct 9, 2022
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You may laugh, but that is how adoption curves work. When color TVs were first introduced, no one wanted one. They were big, expensive, and there weren't many shows broadcast in color. Then the prices came down, color broadcasts went up, and within a couple if years color TVs were the norm. Nearly identical adoption of HDTV.

America and South Korea have been slow to adopt EVs. In most countries, EVs went from 5% of new car sales to 15% in under 3 years. We are taking closer to 4 years. But we will reach a mass adoption point where sales will accelerate rapidly.

I agree that 2030 could be overly optimistic to achieve 50% of new car sales, unless we get solid state batteries with over 600 mile ranges. But 2032 seems almost certain.

By 2035, our options for new ICE vehicles will probably be severely limited.
 

patdog

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May 28, 2007
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2025 Camry is interesting to me. I know it is a vast departure, but I've been looking at M240i for something that gets decent mileage and is fun to drive. Something about the practicality of the new hybrid Camry caught my attention. I had also looked one of the used Avalon XSEs with the powerful V8. My pragmatism is trying to kill my desire for more fun.
Never been a fan of the Camry's. And for years they were just butt ugly. This model is a little better in the looks dept, but still not great. If I had to buy a sedan today, I'd probably buy the Accord hybrid. But I'd look at the Camry hybrid & probably the Subaru Legacy. But honestly, I've driven the Mazda CX-5 SUV a few times and it's a great vehicle. I would definitely consider it too.
 
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Howiefeltersnstch

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Thank goodness we got the democrats out of power. They would have made the internal combustion engine illegal. Then I couldn't drive around in my 68 Firebird. Battery power swap ??
 
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