OT: Norvell vs Napier

[18IsTheMan]

Who gets canned first? Easy answer is probably Napier. Things in Gainesville are getting ugly for him. They will probably win at MSU but then have 3-0 UCF roll into town. Lose either one of those games and I can see him getting an early axe. With how they are playing so far, and with him already having been given a much longer leash than any of his recent predecessors, it's hard to see UF letting this thing play out much longer unless they really turn it around.

Norvell's saving grace is Jimmy Sexton, who played college football like a fiddle last off-season. Landing fat extensions for Norvell and Sarkisian and a fat new contract at Alabama for DeBoer. If Norvell isn't fired this season, it may only be because of his payout which is around $60 million. This is his 2nd 0-3 start at FSU (and I think he owns the only two 0-3 starts in the last 50 years at FSU). The loss to GaTech was tough. But they were never even really competitive with BC and never led in the game against Memphis. Worst thing is, their issues don't seem fixable. Their first game issues were the same as in the second and third games. They have 3-0 Cal rolling into town and are somehow still 5 point favorites. With 9 games remaining, it's hard to see where 6 wins for bowl eligibility comes from. Does FSU conclude that their 2 good seasons were the Jordan Travis effect? Further, you look at Norvell's recruiting, and it's not particularly good. He's relied most heavily on the portal, and that has blown up massively in his face this season. They seem to be in the precarious situation of righting the ship now or him being in danger of losing the locker room.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Well, that was fast. just saw an article that UF boosters have pulled together enough money to cover Napier's $26 million buyout.

That's pretty much the kiss of death.

 

[PrestonyteParrot]

There were posts that the Florida Board was meeting yesterday to discuss Napier's future but then Napier's schedule was announced for the week so I'm not sure what happened.

 

[18IsTheMan]

There were posts that the Florida Board was meeting yesterday to discuss Napier's future but then Napier's schedule was announced for the week so I'm not sure what happened.

Coaches rarely pull out of a spiral like this. Once boosters are collecting money, you're done. Everyone, from local outlets to ESPN to USA Today, is acknowledging that he's done. Maybe a win over MSU serves as a stall for him. Then you have UCF. Lose that, and he's probably toast. Win and you have to travel to Knoxville. With how UT's offense has looked so far this year (terrifying if you haven't noticed) that one could get quite ugly and be enough to push UF over the edge to can him.

But, hey, he was 2-0 against us.

 

[PrestonyteParrot]

Not sure how Norvell hangs on except for a massive payout which FL St may not be able to stomach.
His loyalty to DJ is unexplainable unless all those QB's are worse than him.

 

[muscleknight]

We should start offering a degree in bad coaching through our sports management department. Give out WSM Whammy Scott Muschamp scholarships to those students who exhibit the most incompetence.

 

[PrestonyteParrot]

I wish I had known how lucrative the coaching profession was for failures when I was in college, and I would have changed majors.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I wish I had known how lucrative the coaching profession was for failures when I was in college, and I would have changed majors.

Can you imagine? If you somehow worked you way into a head coaching gig, even a modest buyout is easily high 7 figures these days.

 

[will110]

I don't see how a program fires a coach who just won a conference championship and would have made the playoff in any other season at 13-0. Also his buyout would be astronomical.

Napier will be gone before the Cocktail Party.

 

[Lurker123]

Not sure how Norvell hangs on except for a massive payout which FL St may not be able to stomach.
His loyalty to DJ is unexplainable unless all those QB's are worse than him.

Norvell can still hang his hat on recent success. I bet they give him till next year, barring a one or two run year. (That would be funny)

I don't get why clemson AND fsu have hung with that headcase so long. He is obviously deficient between the ears. Can FSU's back up be that bad?

 

[18IsTheMan]

I don't see how a program fires a coach who just won a conference championship and would have made the playoff in any other season at 13-0. Also his buyout would be astronomical.

Napier will be gone before the Cocktail Party.

Depends on how you look at his tenure.

Years 1 and 2 were rough. Midway through Year 2, they transitioned to Travis, and he turned out to be the catalyst for FSU's success in Norvell's 3rd and 4th years.

If this year continues to go how it's trending, is his tenure defined by bad years 1, 2 and 5 or good years 3 and 4? Keeping in mind, his only real success so far has come with Travis. FSU folks are already looking at it that way. Norvell stumbled on a good transfer in Travis, but in his 5th year, he has not recruited and developed a single QB.

Yes, the buyout engineered by Sexton is likely his saving grace. But if things go poorly enough, you never know.

 

[gamecock stock]

FSU gave Willlie Taggert his walking papers after 2 seasons. Napier will be gone at the end of this 3rd season, at the latest. I admire both those institutions. They are serious people who expect and demand results.

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

Not sure how Norvell hangs on except for a massive payout which FL St may not be able to stomach.
His loyalty to DJ is unexplainable unless all those QB's are worse than him.

Norvell at least has some standing with his record last year, Napier has nothing to hold on to at this point, unless he manages to make a drastic turnaround starting Saturday, he may not last past October.

 

[will110]

FSU gave Willlie Taggert his walking papers after 2 seasons. Napier will be gone at the end of this 3rd season, at the latest. I admire both those institutions. They are serious people who expect and demand results.

It's really working out for both schools too.

 

[will110]

Depends on how you look at his tenure.

Years 1 and 2 were rough. Midway through Year 2, they transitioned to Travis, and he turned out to be the catalyst for FSU's success in Norvell's 3rd and 4th years.

If this year continues to go how it's trending, is his tenure defined by bad years 1, 2 and 5 or good years 3 and 4? Keeping in mind, his only real success so far has come with Travis. FSU folks are already looking at it that way. Norvell stumbled on a good transfer in Travis, but in his 5th year, he has not recruited and developed a single QB.

Yes, the buyout engineered by Sexton is likely his saving grace. But if things go poorly enough, you never know.

Yeah, that's a good point on his first two years. If the first three games are any indication, FSU will be lucky to win 4 this year. Such a shocking collapse.

It is a real indictment on a coach that he had to turn to DJU at QB in his 5th year. He couldn't recruit a decent high school player in that time span?

 

[18IsTheMan]

Another factor with Norvell is the impact on recruiting and the portal.

I don't follow them close enough to know, but I've heard they've lost or are expected to lose some commits, particularly defensive players. These things can tend to pick up steam.

Florida State Loses Second Commitment In As Many Days

FSU's 2025 recruiting class is dropping in the national rankings - quickly.

www.si.com

Then, if the season keeps going poorly, you have to worry about keeping the good players you do have from jumping in the portal.

 

[Lurker123]

Another factor with Norvell is the impact on recruiting and the portal.

I don't follow them close enough to know, but I've heard they've lost or are expected to lose some commits, particularly defensive players. These things can tend to pick up steam.

Florida State Loses Second Commitment In As Many Days

FSU's 2025 recruiting class is dropping in the national rankings - quickly.

www.si.com

Then, if the season keeps going poorly, you have to worry about keeping the good players you do have from jumping in the portal.

Heck, FSU needs to worry about keeping their current players engaged for this year.

 

[muscleknight]

Can UF and FSU keep paying 25 million dollar buyouts every 2 years?

 

[18IsTheMan]

Can UF and FSU keep paying 25 million dollar buyouts every 2 years?

I think for those schools, the boosters usually pony up the dough.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Napier has the 3rd worst record for a UF head coach through at least 2 seasons. He has a .429 win percentage.

The only 2 coaches with worse record were from the 1930s and 1940s.

 

[Greer]

Who gets canned first? Easy answer is probably Napier. Things in Gainesville are getting ugly for him. They will probably win at MSU but then have 3-0 UCF roll into town. Lose either one of those games and I can see him getting an early axe. With how they are playing so far, and with him already having been given a much longer leash than any of his recent predecessors, it's hard to see UF letting this thing play out much longer unless they really turn it around.

Norvell's saving grace is Jimmy Sexton, who played college football like a fiddle last off-season. Landing fat extensions for Norvell and Sarkisian and a fat new contract at Alabama for DeBoer. If Norvell isn't fired this season, it may only be because of his payout which is around $60 million. This is his 2nd 0-3 start at FSU (and I think he owns the only two 0-3 starts in the last 50 years at FSU). The loss to GaTech was tough. But they were never even really competitive with BC and never led in the game against Memphis. Worst thing is, their issues don't seem fixable. Their first game issues were the same as in the second and third games. They have 3-0 Cal rolling into town and are somehow still 5 point favorites. With 9 games remaining, it's hard to see where 6 wins for bowl eligibility comes from. Does FSU conclude that their 2 good seasons were the Jordan Travis effect? Further, you look at Norvell's recruiting, and it's not particularly good. He's relied most heavily on the portal, and that has blown up massively in his face this season. They seem to be in the precarious situation of righting the ship now or him being in danger of losing the locker room.

Plus Norvell was dumb enought to bring DJU in. I think his buy out is the maninthing saving him. I am also not sure who they will find that is better unless Kiffen or Drinkwitz wants to move on. FSU is in for a rough ride this year and next.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Plus Norvell was dumb enought to bring DJU in. I think his buy out is the maninthing saving him. I am also not sure who they will find that is better unless Kiffen or Drinkwitz wants to move on. FSU is in for a rough ride this year and next.

The buyout works in his favor in two ways. One is the sheer magnitude of it, $65 million is enough to keep him safe short of something on the order of a 2-win season, and even then he probably survives.

Another way it works in his favor is with the FSU's pending lawsuit. Their primary argument against the ACC is a financial one. If the can pay a coach $65 million just to go away, it weakens their financial argument a bit.

 

[gamecock stock]

It's really working out for both schools too.

When they see they have made a bad hiring decision, they cut their losses. When I realize I have made a bad investment decision, I sell. What do you do?

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

This thread brings up a salient point.
If we were going through the same circumstances, I'm guessing there would be some discontent, but for the most part the main talking points would be along the lines "he needs more time", "it would be bad for recruiting, lets extend the contract", "I like him, he says all the right things", "But he went undefeated, won a conference championship, and took us to the playoffs", that's good for another 5 years no matter what happens. (Just ask the Frank Martin apologists)

 

[Greer]

The buyout works in his favor in two ways. One is the sheer magnitude of it, $65 million is enough to keep him safe short of something on the order of a 2-win season, and even then he probably survives.

Another way it works in his favor is with the FSU's pending lawsuit. Their primary argument against the ACC is a financial one. If the can pay a coach $65 million just to go away, it weakens their financial argument a bit.

Good point, I think FSU just has to ride it out.

 

[Irvin Snibbley]

Wonder what would happen ifyou have a total implosion this year at FSU and the coach at Colorado lets it be known he’s interested in the job?

 

[will110]

When they see they have made a bad hiring decision, they cut their losses. When I realize I have made a bad investment decision, I sell. What do you do?

Sometimes it takes time to see an investment's payoff. For example, Bitcoin:



Investment trajectory isn't always positive. Sometimes there are valleys. Has the "fire a coach at the first sign of trouble" process worked for either UF or FSU lately?

 

[gamecock stock]

nm

 

[gamecock stock]

Sometimes it takes time to see an investment's payoff. For example, Bitcoin:

View attachment 651109

Investment trajectory isn't always positive. Sometimes there are valleys. Has the "fire a coach at the first sign of trouble" process worked for either UF or FSU lately?

I never fire an investment at the first sign of trouble. I sometimes see green shoots and, thus, give it more time. Sometimes I no longer see potential and, thus, the decision is obvious. I learned the hard way a long time ago that "hope" is not a winning strategy.

 

[USCEE82]

Well, that was fast. just saw an article that UF boosters have pulled together enough money to cover Napier's $26 million buyout.

That's pretty much the kiss of death.

Wow!! Seriously? They got people with deep pockets who really care about football!!

 

[will110]

I never fire an investment at the first sign of trouble. I sometimes see green shoots and, thus, give it more time. Sometimes I no longer see potential and, thus, the decision is obvious. I learned the hard way a long time ago that "hope" is not a winning strategy.

Agreed that hope is not winning strategy. What is seen as potential/green shoots for some would be seen as hope for others. Which is why hiring and firing coaches is a very inexact science.

What I imagine we both can agree on, though, is firing a coach every 2-4 years and starting over is typically not a great way to build a program.

 

[18IsTheMan]

New today. Napier says he has had no discussions with the administration on his coaching future.

So far this is textbook pattern for a coach who is destined for a mid-season firing.

Gators coach Billy Napier: No conversations regarding future at Florida

Florida's head coach revealed they've yet to have discussions regarding his future at UF

247sports.com

 

[gamecock stock]

Agreed that hope is not winning strategy. What is seen as potential/green shoots for some would be seen as hope for others. Which is why hiring and firing coaches is a very inexact science.

What I imagine we both can agree on, though, is firing a coach every 2-4 years and starting over is typically not a great way to build a program.

I agree. If a program is doing that, they better take a look at who is doing the hiring.

 

[gamecock stock]

New today. Napier says he has had no discussions with the administration on his coaching future.

So far this is textbook pattern for a coach who is destined for a mid-season firing.

Gators coach Billy Napier: No conversations regarding future at Florida

Florida's head coach revealed they've yet to have discussions regarding his future at UF

247sports.com

If I was them, I'd wait until the end of the season. They are going to go after, and I think get, Kiffin. What's the rush?

 

[gamecock stock]

I will be surprised if Norvell is let go. Last year was that "green shoot" I mentioned earlier.

 

[Greer]

Wonder what would happen ifyou have a total implosion this year at FSU and the coach at Colorado lets it be known he’s interested in the job?

That would be fun to watch. They may never recover if they go that route.

 

[Irvin Snibbley]

In running a business the adage is “Be slow to hire and quick to fire.”
If it’s apparent it’s not going to work then go ahead and cut them loose.In the long run it’s better for everybody.
I can’t tell how many times it seems the guy that gets fired seems the weight of the world is lifted off his shoulders.Especially in this day of the huge buyouts.
Is Jimbo Fisher happier today than he was 1 yr ago?How could he not be.

 

[USCEE82]

I think for those schools, the boosters usually pony up the dough.

Man, I'd be pissed if I ponied up a huge chunk of change and the AD hired another loser!

 

[gamecock stock]

In running a business the adage is “Be slow to hire and quick to fire.”
If it’s apparent it’s not going to work then go ahead and cut them loose.In the long run it’s better for everybody.
I can’t tell how many times it seems the guy that gets fired seems the weight of the world is lifted off his shoulders.Especially in this day of the huge buyouts.
Is Jimbo Fisher happier today than he was 1 yr ago?How could he not be.

Carolina has made a lot of happy former coaches in my lifetime.

 

[jasonscottinsc]

It's just funny to me because there were a lot of people, here and elsewhere who were convinced Napier should have been the hire here. I don't blame Florida for hiring him. It made sense. Sometimes good hires don't work out. That's happened here as well.