OT: Oil in the US. A true discussion, don’t do political ********.

[mcdawg22]

We have had several discussions about oil and the economic nuances involving it. A lot of those discussions got derailed but had great insight. Can we have a discussion about oil without devolving into politics? I feel like there are a lot of posters that have background in PE and energy research. I would like honest opinions on Export/Import, oil company profits, and pipeline/drilling exploration. I’m fascinated by it because it’s interesting to me.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

We have had several discussions about oil and the economic nuances involving it. A lot of those discussions got derailed but had great insight. Can we have a discussion about oil without devolving into politics? I feel like there are a lot of posters that have background in PE and energy research. I would like honest opinions on Export/Import, oil company profits, and pipeline/drilling exploration. I’m fascinated by it because it’s interesting to me.

Not my area so I'll defer mostly to others, though one thing that appears to have happened from the view of my niche is the major companies did not turn to maintenance related activities during this most recent downturn, unlike the last one.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Lots of good information here. The TL;D;D,DR version is domestic oil production is about to take off again.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51318

 

[57stratdawg]

We have high demand with lingering supply chain issues. So, the price is up. The 10% - 15% increase you might have seen in the last 2 weeks is thanks to Russia invading Ukraine.

There are systemic risks for investors now as renewables and EV become more and more popular. I hear that’s making it tough to raise private capital. I haven’t seen a shortage of funds being extended from banks though - at least not the big boys.

Don’t forget, we had too much oil in Feb 2020. Oil & Gas companies took a two+ year bath. I think they’re working to recover some of those loses.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Huge topic that goes in many directions.

My interests in this subject here lie more into natural resources and energy research and socioeconomic influence throughout history— something that’s been a lifelong pursuit thanks to growing up in a community historically reliant upon oil and timber.

US exploration particularly in the South historically isn’t as cost-effective as in outside the country. The dry hole rate had been too high which led to less exploration and increased imports.

Hydraulic fracturing and CO2 EOR have become more common. Denbury especially is visible when it comes to CO2 EOR in Mississippi.

Two people whose works I’d recommend reading are Daniel Yergin & Vaclav Smil.

 

[ckDOG]

ROI hasn't been as good in recent history as well

We have high demand with lingering supply chain issues. So, the price is up. The 10% - 15% increase you might have seen in the last 2 weeks is thanks to Russia invading Ukraine.

There are systemic risks for investors now as renewables and EV become more and more popular. I hear that’s making it tough to raise private capital. I haven’t seen a shortage of funds being extended from banks though - at least not the big boys.

Don’t forget, we had too much oil in Feb 2020. Oil & Gas companies took a two+ year bath. I think they’re working to recover some of those loses.

What you say here + general balance sheet cleanup is delaying investment in projects that can increase the supply in the near and intermediate. Policy plays a factor, it always does. But this is Econ 101 at play in a capitalist environment. There's no production lever to be pulled via policy/politician outside of long term macro policies (but that's outside the OPs scope so I remain silent there).

 

[mcdawg22]

Lots of good information here. The TL;D;D,DR version is domestic oil production is about to take off again.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51318

So I guess one question I have is, how does that happen. I realize flooding the market drives prices down to where extraction is a net loss, but what is the price point where it is sustainable and beneficial for both oil profits and a pushback to renewables to co-exist?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Can we also talk about ethanol in this thread? I’m all for taking care of our environment and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, but ethanol doesn’t help with either of those. If you add 10% ethanol to gasoline, your vehicle’s fuel mileage decreases by 10%. Best case scenario it doesn’t help, but in reality it causes more harm when you consider all the energy used to make ethanol and the damage ethanol does to the equipment it’s in. Why are we still wasting resources on this crap?

 

[PuebloDawg]

Because our farm lobby is powerful?

 

[cytubb]

Why do we buy oil from Russia when we can produce our own oil?

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

I’ve never understood that. That isn’t all gas ethanol free?

 

[aTotal360]

Calling Bobby Ricigliano...

 

[aTotal360]

I *think* there tons of reasons for why we buy oil from other countries.

As measure to not deplete our own resources.
As a solid to other countries.
Because other countries can produce it more cheaply than us. As an aside, I learned from an oil/gas friend of mine that Russian production cost is pretty high. Their oil is some of the most expensive.
Also as a way to seem more environmentally conscientious.
Because of trade agreements.

 

[mcdawg22]

I run my lawn mower on Ethanol free and it runs like a top. One weekend I let my neighbor borrow it and he courteously topped it off after using it. I asked where he got the gas and he said the Tom Thumb which doesn’t have ethanol free. For the next few cuts, it sputtered noticeably.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Pretty accurate — I’d like to see a more current total (includes production, admin, etc.) cost comparison.

The most recent info I’ve looked at (and it’s been a while) has Russia as being comparable to the US in costs (around $20 per barrel)

Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq have significantly cheaper costs (roughly $10 per barrel) than the US & Russia.

If someone has more recent info here, it’d be appreciated.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Can we also talk about ethanol in this thread? I’m all for taking care of our environment and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, but ethanol doesn’t help with either of those. If you add 10% ethanol to gasoline, your vehicle’s fuel mileage decreases by 10%. Best case scenario it doesn’t help, but in reality it causes more harm when you consider all the energy used to make ethanol and the damage ethanol does to the equipment it’s in. Why are we still wasting resources on this crap?

Follow the money to the Bush family

 

[ababyatemydingo]

So I guess one question I have is, how does that happen. I realize flooding the market drives prices down to where extraction is a net loss, but what is the price point where it is sustainable and beneficial for both oil profits and a pushback to renewables to co-exist?

About $80 a barrel is the sweet spot where it's profitable to drill, extract from shale, and hydraulic fracture, and not drive gasoline prices above $2.10 a gallon. The Saudi's made the calculated decision to over-produce when President Trump eased restrictions on shale extraction and fracking, driving the price down to a point where it was no longer profitable to do either. They were actually at a point of storing oil in tankers off the coast. It's not easy to open back up a drill site, once you seal it up, and the Saudis knew that. So, they drove the price down to where the US producers had no choice but to cap the wells and cease drilling and extracting. Shale extraction and fracking was a huge threat to the Saudi and OPEC's profitability, and, along with other easing of red tape for conventional drilling, is what made the US a net exporter of oil under Trump. The OPEC nations just decided to take a short term hit on price for a long term gain. And their gamble worked.

 

[dorndawg]

Why do we buy oil from Russia when we can produce our own oil?

How much do we actually buy from the rooskies? I've seen 3% and 7%, I *think*. I'd have to guess we aren't buying any directly, lately?

 

[Dawgzilla]

Russian oil is primarily for the West Coast. The Gulf Coast refineries have pipeline connections to the Permian Basin, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and Canada. But how can that oil get to the East and West coast refineries? The size of tankers in the Gulf is limited by the Jones Act, and it is often more cost effective for those refineries to import foreign oil, and Russian oil is easy to transport to the West Coast.

The East and West Coast refineries are also set up for heavier crude with high sulphur content. You don't get much of that in the US these days, and you get none of it from fracking.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

Can we also talk about ethanol in this thread? I’m all for taking care of our environment and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, but ethanol doesn’t help with either of those. If you add 10% ethanol to gasoline, your vehicle’s fuel mileage decreases by 10%. Best case scenario it doesn’t help, but in reality it causes more harm when you consider all the energy used to make ethanol and the damage ethanol does to the equipment it’s in. Why are we still wasting resources on this crap?

Ethanol gasoline is the one of the dumbest things the Federal Government has ever dreamed up. Ethanol gasoline is more costly to produce, uses more energy to produce, ruins combustion engines, and causes less fuel efficiency in combustion engines. Ethanol-free gasoline should actually be much cheaper than ethanol gasoline, but they tax it so that it drives the price above ethanol gasoline. To sell more ethanol gasoline and "help" farmers. How they sold this idea is one of the biggest scams ever played on the the American people. They would have done more good for the country by just creating a fund and giving money to the farm lobby, instead of growing corn and making ethanol gasoline out of it. NEVER run ethanol gas in your small engines, people.

 

[uptowndawg]

American crude is typically a sweet and light crude.

Why do we buy oil from Russia when we can produce our own oil?

Many of our refineries were designed to refine heavy sour crudes that are produced from foreign countries. We can't satisfy our demand for gasoline and other products by only refining our own oil.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41033

 

[nsvltndog]

The ethanol aspect reminds me of a story my Great Uncle shared with me several years ago. He had recently retired as President of a small regional bank in rural Iowa with several branches scattered around small towns in rural Iowa farm country. Corn and farming were the lifeblood of his bank so he was well connected with the farming community. His comment about Ethanol was that every corn farmer in Iowa knows exactly where to go to find "ethanol free" gas because of how bad the ethanol is for motors/engines.

 

[paindonthurt]

As measure to not deplete our own resources and the costs for other countries to do it more cheaply.

These are perfectly logical reasons for not producing all our oil domestically. There has to be a happy medium so we don't rely too heavily on other countries so they can't hand cuff us but its a good reason and makes great sense.

THE PROBLEM I HAVE IS - Why don't politicians just say this? Of course everyone won't get it, but most of the people will. I mean its no secret to other countries either and you can say it in a diplomatic way.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021. That sounds like a lot but it’s not.

View attachment 23978

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

During the heart of the pandemic you'll remember oil producers tried to keep it going, but filled all storage vessels on earth until they ended up with -$39 spot prices because storage was so short you had to pay someone to take delivery and store it. That caused producers to not only cap wells, but quit starting new wells.

Think of shale fracking wells as your dinger and the oil is your pee after drinking 5-6 of those miller lites in your pool. When you hop out to finally take a leak, you can initially shoot a stream over the neighbors fence. But soon it's starts to lose strength and after enough time has passed your just trickling out at an annoying level that's too much to stop, but it would take 30 seconds to fill up a shot glass. That's a fracking well.

So most of the big production is from brand new wells. So uncapping the old wells helps, but the real volume is in drilling a whole bunch of new ones with the power stream. But, much like everything else that shutdown suddenly, they destroyed their supply chain. Fracking sand and labor are the big ones. It will take years if ever to recover the damage done in a few months.

Another factor is they were drilling so fast pre pandemic just to stay alive. Prices were so low that they had to max out production. But the resource is limited. If they were able to get back to 2019-2020 they would tap the entire Permian basin within 5 years. Keeping at the current track might give them 10-15 years.

Here are some estimates of how much is left in current known inventory for frackers at current rates and after a 15% increase in production.

EOG
Current = 11 years
+15% = 4.4 years

Continental
Current = 11 years
+15% = 3 years

Devon
Current = 9 years
+15% = 2.2 years

Great article laying it all out, but I summarized since it's behind paywall most likely.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fracking-oil-prices-shale-boom-11643824329

Ultimately for multiple reasons, don't expect to see big upticks in US production in the very near future. The frackers need time to explore new fields.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I see your ethanol and raise you diesel exhaust fluid. As soon as our tractors go out of warranty we delete the Def systems on them. They get better fuel efficiency and power after the delete.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Yeah, many "Drill, Baby, Drill" folks will still be upset but I agree with you 100 percent.

 

[mcdawg22]

Think of shale fracking wells as your dinger and the oil is your pee after drinking 5-6 of those miller lites in your pool. When you hop out to finally take a leak

Why would I get out of the pool?

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Why would I get out of the pool?

It was a hypothetical. But yes, that would be a pretentious SOB. Everyone pees in front of the jet so it will disperse rapidly throughout the pool.

 

[thatsbaseball]

This maybe ? **

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[Bill Shankly]

Russian oil is primarily for the West Coast. The Gulf Coast refineries have pipeline connections to the Permian Basin, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and Canada. But how can that oil get to the East and West coast refineries? The size of tankers in the Gulf is limited by the Jones Act, and it is often more cost effective for those refineries to import foreign oil, and Russian oil is easy to transport to the West Coast.

The East and West Coast refineries are also set up for heavier crude with high sulphur content. You don't get much of that in the US these days, and you get none of it from fracking.

There is an article in today's Wall Street Journal about the Jones Act and Russian oil. It turns out a LOT of it that we import goes to Hawaii, because of the Jones Act. Interestingly Hawaii gets 60% of it's oil from Libia. The Wall Street Journal has been preaching against the Jones Act for years. They have a point too.

 

[ckDOG]

Do you think there will be a shift from fracking to conventional?

During the heart of the pandemic you'll remember oil producers tried to keep it going, but filled all storage vessels on earth until they ended up with -$39 spot prices because storage was so short you had to pay someone to take delivery and store it. That caused producers to not only cap wells, but quit starting new wells.

Think of shale fracking wells as your dinger and the oil is your pee after drinking 5-6 of those miller lites in your pool. When you hop out to finally take a leak, you can initially shoot a stream over the neighbors fence. But soon it's starts to lose strength and after enough time has passed your just trickling out at an annoying level that's too much to stop, but it would take 30 seconds to fill up a shot glass. That's a fracking well.

So most of the big production is from brand new wells. So uncapping the old wells helps, but the real volume is in drilling a whole bunch of new ones with the power stream. But, much like everything else that shutdown suddenly, they destroyed their supply chain. Fracking sand and labor are the big ones. It will take years if ever to recover the damage done in a few months.

Another factor is they were drilling so fast pre pandemic just to stay alive. Prices were so low that they had to max out production. But the resource is limited. If they were able to get back to 2019-2020 they would tap the entire Permian basin within 5 years. Keeping at the current track might give them 10-15 years.

Here are some estimates of how much is left in current known inventory for frackers at current rates and after a 15% increase in production.

EOG
Current = 11 years
+15% = 4.4 years

Continental
Current = 11 years
+15% = 3 years

Devon
Current = 9 years
+15% = 2.2 years

Great article laying it all out, but I summarized since it's behind paywall most likely.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fracking-oil-prices-shale-boom-11643824329

Ultimately for multiple reasons, don't expect to see big upticks in US production in the very near future. The frackers need time to explore new fields.

And is that even possible in the U.S. while maintaining a reasonable domestic supply? Seems the case has been made that fracking was great for supply and really bad for investors for a variety of reasons. That's not to say frackers aren't figuring out how to get leaner and improve the returns (and of course, $100/bbl gives a lot of room for error), but for the reasons you stated and iffy investors, ramping up production is going to be a slow process. We just don't have a switch to toggle like the nationalized oil/conventional drilling environments do.

 

[MrKotter]

I *think* there tons of reasons for why we buy oil from other countries.

As measure to not deplete our own resources.
QUOTE]

100% not true. Just another fabrication to justify buying what is not needed and lining the pockets of those who deserve it least.

 

[dorndawg]

The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021. That sounds like a lot but it’s not.

View attachment 23978

Appears we use somewhere around 20M barrels a day in USA, so that would be just over 3%. https://www.statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-consumption-in-the-us-per-day/

 

[thatsbaseball]

Why is nuclear power generation hardly ever mentioned anymore ? Again, please no political answers if possible.

 

[dorndawg]

Why is nuclear power generation hardly ever mentioned anymore ? Again, please no political answers if possible.

There are a lot of factors. I am a proponent of nuclear power even as I recognize the drawbacks. This lays out a lot of good thinking on the subject: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-activists-who-embrace-nuclear-power

 

[engie]

Can we also talk about ethanol in this thread? I’m all for taking care of our environment and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels, but ethanol doesn’t help with either of those. If you add 10% ethanol to gasoline, your vehicle’s fuel mileage decreases by 10%. Best case scenario it doesn’t help, but in reality it causes more harm when you consider all the energy used to make ethanol and the damage ethanol does to the equipment it’s in. Why are we still wasting resources on this crap?

Ethanol is a superior actual fuel to gasoline. The problem is that our vehicles are designed to run on gasoline, just “will” run on ethanol. Putting something in a place it was never really designed for. When a vehicle truly designed to run on ethanol will not run on gasoline.

Also, ethanol’s mixed octane rating is sky high. So in putting 10% of that in the gasoline you actually buy, it allows the true octane rating of the gasoline to be many factors lower than what you see at the pump

 

[mstateglfr]

There are a lot of factors. I am a proponent of nuclear power even as I recognize the drawbacks. This lays out a lot of good thinking on the subject: https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-activists-who-embrace-nuclear-power

Really good link.

I am not fundamentally opposed to nuclear energy and see the obvious potential benefits. I also think that it doesnt need to be a choice of coal, nuclear, or alternative energy- they can all exist, or rather the latter two can co-exist.
Hydroelectric floods valleys and changes environments. Solar is difficult to implement in sole locations, expensive in some locations, and doesnt produce as much during peak usage. Wind is geographically limiting.
I dont see why nuclear cant exist alongside other forms of energy.

The question of what to ultimately do with the waste is a real issue. Legitimately, it is something that is tough to overcome, based on what I have heard opponents say. Burying it in a mountain works, but what are the chances of leakage? Shoving it deep into the ocean floor works, but what are the chances of leakage? I could provide more examples and the same doubt would apply to those as well.
Like the article said though- our current energy production kills a lot of people too. Air pollution is real.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

There is an article in today's Wall Street Journal about the Jones Act and Russian oil. It turns out a LOT of it that we import goes to Hawaii, because of the Jones Act. Interestingly Hawaii gets 60% of it's oil from Libia. The Wall Street Journal has been preaching against the Jones Act for years. They have a point too.

I don't think outsourcing our shipping industries to foreign countries will go over well after the supply disruptions we've had in industries that previously did that. Seems like the momentum is on increasing domestic production and capacity, not the opposite.

 

[thatsbaseball]

I'm a proponent also. I'm not "negative" on solar and wind in the right areas, I just don't want to be totally dependent on them and nuclear is by far more reliable IMO.