So the 500 has crossed 5000. If you are keeping track that's about a 14.5% annual return since it bottomed 15 years ago in early 2009. That's wild to think about.
OT: S&P 5000
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M2 expanded by $12.5 trillion from March 9, 2009 to January 1, 2024. The federal debt increased by $22 trillion from Q1 2009 to Q3 2023. Monetary expansion is a large part of asset value increases.
Powell will be pushed to drop interest rates this year. That should spike the punch.
My concern's:
More unrest (than usual in the Middle East)
Major financial issues in China
Biden "retiring" after winning the primary and being replaced by a 3rd party (Newsom)
I'm not far against the democrats, the market doesn't like uncertainty. The MSM not surpassing (actually promoting) the Hur Report is a move toward Biden not being on the ballot in Nov.
The media questioning Biden's fitness to serve tells me he will not be the Democrat choice.
As we sit here today I'd put that likelihood at around a 1-in-3.
As far as markets, going back 30-40 years they've responded far more positively to one party in the white house than the other. IMO this is more correlation than causation; whoever the President is gets far too much blame for bad economic news and too much credit when it's good.
Please read and comprehend! This has nothing to do with political parties.
If a setting POTUS "retires" after the primary, but before the general election, that'd cause much chaos and uncertainty, at least in the short term. As far as I know that's never happened, and if it has it wasn't in our lifetimes.
The market reacted negatively to JFK's assassination and to Nixon's resignation, the two nearest compatibles.
OK fair but even still, everyone realizes that uncertainty will be short-term.
The closest analog I can think of is in 1972 when McGovern selected Eagleton is his VP, then it came out he'd received electric shock therapy so he got dropped and replaced by Sargent Shriver. That happened in a fiarly quick time frame and obviously people care far less about the VP selection than the top of the ticket. As far as a nominee getting changed at the convention.
Hopefully you realize that is absolutely nothing compared to a sitting POTUS "retiring" after getting the nomination and the powerbrokers throwing in Newsom?
Best comparison is likely Nixon.
Now as we get closer to the convention, the market may "bake in" Biden not running in November, there will be many "trail balloons" and signals. But it Biden does not go willingly, it could be a huge mess.
Here is an interesting article that goes through the different scenarios based on when Biden (or Trump) might drop out: https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-trump-suddenly-leaves-2024-race/story?id=106136493
The choice is taken from voters (millions of people) and given to the delegates (thousands of people) if they remove Biden after the primary contests and before the convention. If they remove him after the convention, the choice is taken from the delegates and given to the members of the DNC (hundreds of people).
It’s pretty much impossible to imagine a world where your choices in November are not Trump & Biden. Trump might be in jail. One of them might die. I think that’s about it.
As far as the markets are concerned - i don’t think they care. They know what they’re getting in both.
As far as the markets are concerned - i don’t think they care. They know what they’re getting in both.
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We are not talking about spring chickens here.
The MSM has surpassed/discredited news stories that were unfavorable toward Biden. Not this story though, it is the lead on several newscasts, where they specifically point out his diminished memory/cognitive ability. Before this broke, I was 99% sure Biden would be on the ballot in November, now I'm more 60%.
I don't think Obiden will withdraw willingly so it will be messy. If the media has started openly questioning him it means they were told to. The comment about both dying might be accurate. I think there are people that will do whatever is necessary to keep Trump from becoming president again.
I think you're probably right. I think if there was a competent vice president, there'd be a real chance Biden got pushed out. The problem is the favored replacement is underwater in his home state (or at least was) and they'd be pushing aside a Vice president that is a woman and mixed race. I think in reality she is so unlikeable that it wouldn't hurt them that much to go in a different direction, but I get the concern.
They really missed the opportunity to convince Biden to step out before the primaries. Then Kamala could have lost on her own and everyone could have been reminded of how unlikeable she is outside of the far left. I think the people actually wielding the power would have fought against it, but I think they could be charged with elder abuse at this point so I think they probably could have been convinced.
If republicans power brokers could get trump out, they would have done so in 2016. The voters in the early primary states had a great opportunity to pick somebody that pretty much has all the qualities Trump supporters like except a little less charismatic without all of the baggage, but also more competent, and they obviously didn't choose that. Trump being arrested and/or convicted isn't going to change him being the candidate at this point. Even if there was a non-politically motivated prosecution for a crime he actually committed I don't think it would matter at this point.
I believe that there is a 0% chance, short of death, of Biden not being on the ballot.
Trump might die. He's in worse physical shape, in general than Biden. I know people argue mental state, but it stands out to me that people don't undergo mental evaluation unless there is some demonstrated symptom and Trump keeps bragging about how many mental tests that he has passed. I can't think of anyone without demonstrated mental issues who had to undergo a single mental test, much less many!
"My probation officer tells me monthly what a great citizen I've been that month!"
I thought that too prior to yesterday. The MSM not suppressing this story and actually pointing out the comments about Biden's cognitive ability, shocked me.
It all boils down to the fact that both of these egos are too stubborn to step aside...
so we are screwed.
so we are screwed.
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Democrats don't live in a world where the "MSM" is covering up stories for Biden though. They're looking at a report that clears Biden of any indictments, and a Trump appointee taking some political shots when he couldn't get his case together.
I just skimmed through the first 30 minutes of today's episode of Pod Save America, and they haven't mentioned it yet (teased at the begining). I only use them as an example because they're currently the #1 Political podcast on Charitable.
I believe that possibility is much greater than zero.
‘A nightmare’: Special counsel’s assessment of Biden’s mental fitness triggers Democratic panic
Polls have long found that questions about his age and mental abilities have plagued Biden’s standing with the public.
www.nbcnews.com
How Bad Is This for Joe Biden, Really?
A special counsel report on the president's handling of classified documents knocked his memory in a pretty pointed way.
The investment department at my company is selling off LLP's and other assets to have cash to buy stock at bargain prices. They are predicting this is not going to be a good year for the markets. That entire department is really good at what they do. It's not just one person.
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Kamala poses a big dilemma for the Democrat's .
I realize this thread is about to get the locked! Rember the Hunter Biden Laptop story? The MSM suppressed and discredited that to the moon.
Check out this blurb from CNN, prior to today, comments like that would have never been allowed on air. NBC had a similar story.
I agree. If Biden is the nominee, they have to replace Kamala to even have a chance. Then that is going to piss off another group of people.
I think Newsom has the best chance of winning. He's the Trump of the left, without the unforced errors.
Good looking guy
Of little substance
Good interview
Great on camera
Confidence out the waazoo
Full of piss and vinegar
Ain't scared to "craft his own tale"
Half of the country thinks what's going on in California is fine.
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I think a Friday Afternoon 'Current Events' thread is a solid idea. Keep it civil, and lock it up over the weekend.
What you think DCC?
What you think DCC?
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