OT: why I hate analytics

[18IsTheMan]

I was reading an article about the Yankees' abysmal offensive showing thus far in the season. For one hitter in particular, it noted his atrocious stats, but went on to say that there was no reason for concern because his EXPECTED slugging percentage was above the league average. Forget that his current slugging percentage is under .200. Based on exit velocity and launch angle, his expected slugging percentage was very good. So, as opposed to the old days, when you'd just bench a crappy hitter and try someone else, you just keep trotting out the guys who aren't even hitting their weight b/c the analytics predict they'll eventually start hitting.

This is why I hate analytics. Too much emphasis is put on what a player SHOULD be doing or what they could be EXPECTED do as opposed to what they are actually doing.

 

[Cackmandu]

Sounds like a Yankee problem!

 

[18IsTheMan]

Sounds like a Yankee problem!

There certainly isn’t any team more committed to analytics. They’ll follow analytics all the way deeper into the championship desert.

 

[KingWard]

I was reading an article about the Yankees' abysmal offensive showing thus far in the season. For one hitter in particular, it noted his atrocious stats, but went on to say that there was no reason for concern because his EXPECTED slugging percentage was above the league average. Forget that his current slugging percentage is under .200. Based on exit velocity and launch angle, his expected slugging percentage was very good. So, as opposed to the old days, when you'd just bench a crappy hitter and try someone else, you just keep trotting out the guys who aren't even hitting their weight b/c the analytics predict they'll eventually start hitting.

This is why I hate analytics. Too much emphasis is put on what a player SHOULD be doing or what they could be EXPECTED do as opposed to what they are actually doing.

It might be not be foolproof but it has huge profit potential for the teams for which it works.

 

[CockofEarle]

It might be not be fool-proof but it has huge profit potential for the teams for which it works.

Old man……u recall who headed up the math dept. back then?…..he was on the small side, wore those Texas ties?

 

[ConwayGamecock]

Lets analyze the hate.......

 

[Game...Cocks]

I was reading an article about the Yankees' abysmal offensive showing thus far in the season. For one hitter in particular, it noted his atrocious stats, but went on to say that there was no reason for concern because his EXPECTED slugging percentage was above the league average. Forget that his current slugging percentage is under .200. Based on exit velocity and launch angle, his expected slugging percentage was very good. So, as opposed to the old days, when you'd just bench a crappy hitter and try someone else, you just keep trotting out the guys who aren't even hitting their weight b/c the analytics predict they'll eventually start hitting.

This is why I hate analytics. Too much emphasis is put on what a player SHOULD be doing or what they could be EXPECTED do as opposed to what they are actually doing.

Any manager worth his salt would know the difference between bad luck and a "crappy hitter". No statistic is perfect. You have to watch the game.

Sometimes baseball lineups are like a commitment to running the ball in football even if you couldn't run in the 1st couple drives.

Managing is about pure faith sometimes.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Any manager worth his salt would know the difference between bad luck and a "crappy hitter". No statistic is perfect. You have to watch the game.

Sometimes baseball lineups are like a commitment to running the ball in football even if you couldn't run in the 1st couple drives.

Managing is about pure faith sometimes.

Aaron Boone isn't worth his salt.

 

[18IsTheMan]

It might be not be foolproof but it has huge profit potential for the teams for which it works.

I suppose. I just have yet to see it work for the Yankees (I don't follow other teams that closely). For the past couple seasons, after every single dismal offensive performance, Aaron Boone says the same things about exit velocities and launch angles etc and how the hits and runs will eventually come. But they don't. Analytics lets you explain away every bad night at the plate.

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

Wah, Wah, Wah
Yankees having a hard time with analytics.
Assess, Adapt and Overcome.
Step up and play, just like the rest of the league.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Wah, Wah, Wah
Yankees having a hard time with analytics.
Assess, Adapt and Overcome.
Step up and play, just like the rest of the league.

I wish they would. It's one thing to use analytics to complement other evaluation tools. It's another thing entirely to throw out every other method of evaluation and lean wholly on analytics.

 

[KingWard]

I suppose. I just have yet to see it work for the Yankees (I don't follow other teams that closely). For the past couple seasons, after every single dismal offensive performance, Aaron Boone says the same things about exit velocities and launch angles etc and how the hits and runs will eventually come. But they don't. Analytics lets you explain away every bad night at the plate.

It worked like heck for the Rays.

 

[Blues man]

I wish they would. It's one thing to use analytics to complement other evaluation tools. It's another thing entirely to throw out every other method of evaluation and lean wholly on analytics.

Funny thing about swings, they never stay the same. They are fluid. That is what needs to be evaluated on a regular basis. How well you maintain them has to be evaluated as well. How good are the coaches at maintaining those swings? They are already suspect if they are using analytics imo.

Using something like analytics exclusively on a fluid object just seems lazy to me. Not surprised tho. Not sure how much power a coach really has when it comes to benching pro players.

 

[ToddFlanders]

Analytics aren’t meant to show what will happen in each game, but rather what will happen over the course of many games. The idea being that if all things average out to where they should be, then you’ll have the wins to show for it.

That said, analytics can’t take into the mental aspect of the game (which can change day to day). And so much of baseball is mental. If a guy isn’t straight between the ears for whatever reason, you can’t just bank on averages from other times in his career to carry the day.

 

[18IsTheMan]

It worked like heck for the Rays.

Well, like anything, it's great when it works. They also leaned too heavily on analytics in the 2020 WS and it bit them in the butt.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Funny thing about swings, they never stay the same. They are fluid. That is what needs to be evaluated on a regular basis. How well you maintain them has to be evaluated as well. How good are the coaches at maintaining those swings? They are already suspect if they are using analytics imo.

Using something like analytics exclusively on a fluid object just seems lazy to me. Not surprised tho. Not sure how much power a coach really has when it comes to benching pro players.

Analytics aren’t meant to show what will happen in each game, but rather what will happen over the course of many games. The idea being that if all things average out to where they should be, then you’ll have the wins to show for it.

That said, analytics can’t take into the mental aspect of the game (which can change day to day). And so much of baseball is mental. If a guy isn’t straight between the ears for whatever reason, you can’t just bank on averages from other times in his career to carry the day.

Yes, exactly. I'm not 100% discounting the use of analytics as an evaluation tool and predictor. But it's using it to the exclusion of any other feel for the game. I really don't care if the analytics says a guy SHOULD be a good hitter in the long run if he sucks right now and is hurting the team.

 

[KingWard]

Well, like anything, it's great when it works. They also leaned too heavily on analytics in the 2020 WS and it bit them in the butt.

I don't see where it bit them in the butt at any time. They are a small-market, low-revenue team that has made the Word Series twice in their history, plus they have made other playoff appearances. They are the Major League equivalent of Skid Row. Whatever they have done has been justified by their disproportionately good results. The thing is, with analytics, you can only get the right pieces together some of the time, but many franchises are only successful proportionate to their resources some of the time anyway.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I don't see where it bit them in the butt at any time. They are a small-market, low-revenue team that has made the Word Series twice in their history, plus they have made other playoff appearances. They are the Major League equivalent of Skid Row. Whatever they have done has been justified by their disproportionately good results. The thing is, with analytics, you can only get the right pieces together some of the time, but many franchises are only successful proportionate to their resources some of the time anyway.

Ask Blake Snell.

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

Well, like anything, it's great when it works. They also leaned too heavily on analytics in the 2020 WS and it bit them in the butt.

This would be assuming that the Dodgers were not using analytics during the series as well, and that it hurt only one team.
This was not the case.