Our National Champions Repeating - Confidence Level

[TangSoo]

I've been thinking about this, but admittedly haven't been studying the rankings lately. What is your confidence level of our 4 champions repeating (ranked in order):

1 AB - Amine and the kid from UNI are really tough. But AB has become so relentless with his pressure and is so technically sound. Unlikely to put himself in a big hole in a match by doing something dumb, and almost impossible to take down. Great gas tank, due in part I think, by his calm demeanor.

From this point on, it gets really tough for me.

2 RBY - My hunch is, he's not quite 100% based on the Desanto match. If healthy, I think Fix is the only one who can go with him.

3 I'll say Carter - It's important he wins Conference, otherwise he could be looking at Lewis and Kemmerer in the semis and finals to get it done.

4 Love Nick Lee - The knee wrap adds a little concern. Woods at 4/5 is a tough test, then probably SeaBass/Eirman. Just a minefield.

To me, AB is the clear #1 to repeat. The other 3 are razor close, and I actually changed my ordering while typing this. Too close to call really.

Edit: Braincramp, forgot about Trent Hidley at 184. Still have AB at 1 though.

 

[IronLion]

1. Brooks, to your point easy #1, in my opinion.
2. Lee, I felt after watching the Iowa match that Lee has comfortably passed Eireman. Don’t feel the same way about CStar/Kem
3. RBY, feel like that’s as close as Desanto gets, in his house with every intangible in his favor and he doesn’t get it done. Fix is no joke, still probably a toss-up, with a homer lean to me for RBY
4. CStar, all the close, low scoring matches make me nervous, at Nationals just one of those go wrong and that’s it. That said, love how he was getting to his offense vs Kem (who looks like he has significant issues with that shoulder) and CStar has certainly proved he knows how to win the close ones. I hope he makes it two in a row, but won’t be surprised if he loses a close one to someone.

 

[WV lion]

That

1. Brooks, to your point easy #1, in my opinion.
2. Lee, I felt after watching the Iowa match that Lee has comfortably passed Eireman. Don’t feel the same way about CStar/Kem
3. RBY, feel like that’s as close as Desanto gets, in his house with every intangible in his favor and he doesn’t get it done. Fix is no joke, still probably a toss-up, with a homer lean to me for RBY
4. CStar, all the close, low scoring matches make me nervous, at Nationals just one of those go wrong and that’s it. That said, love how he was getting to his offense vs Kem (who looks like he has significant issues with that shoulder) and CStar has certainly proved he knows how to win the close ones. I hope he makes it two in a row, but won’t be surprised if he loses a close one to someone.

Would be my order. If RBY wins conference has desanto or fix in finals. Carter's weight class is just loaded.

 

[PSU Mike]

174 >> 141 by a good bit, IMO. Have to beat 2 or 3 (if you’re sitting at 4-5) of Kem, Hidlay, CStar, Lewis, and Massa to win.

Think about Nolf’s Hidlay & Kem matches (his toughest in his champ years), and Lewis was VJ’s only finals loss.

 

[Still in State Colllege]

133 - I think only RBY or Fix can win
141 - Seems to have four potential winners Lee, Eierman, Rivera, and Woods
174 - You are looking at 4 CStar, Kemm, Lewis and Hidlay. I don't see Labriola
184 - Probably four with a chance Brooks, Hidlay, Keck, and Amine. I don't think that Hidlay or Amine can get to any offence to beat Brooks.

So if I was handicapping

184
141
133
174

 

[Michnit]

133 - I think only RBY or Fix can win
141 - Seems to have four potential winners Lee, Eierman, Rivera, and Woods
174 - You are looking at 4 CStar, Kemm, Lewis and Hidlay. I don't see Labriola
184 - Probably four with a chance Brooks, Hidlay, Keck, and Amine. I don't think that Hidlay or Amine can get to any offence to beat Brooks.

So if I was handicapping

184
141
133
174

Still - I think that your analysis is pretty spot on. I will also go with AB & Nick to win it all. I just can't see both RBY & CStarr both winning. If I were handicapping I say they both lose in the semi's or finals. However, I won't sell them short as our guys really do step up at NCAA's so a small wager with a parlay of all four remaining NC's is not out of question.

PS: Team title will be tight, but I see us winning it all again. We have a number of top level kids, & guys up & down the lineup that can score bonus points.

 

[BrucePa]

I think there's a shot that Max might take 197, depending on brackets at nationals. Hildebrandt, Max, and Kerk all add up to the points at Nationals that could clinch the team title.

 

[SonnyAbeFan]

Great topic. I’m going to answer it like you stated in the headline - confidence level (as a % of how confident I am that they will repeat). I suspect most Penn State fans assume or expect that all 4 should or will repeat. That is such a high bar. The talent is so good, and upsets happen. I would say the guys with the greatest probability of repeating are/were Gable and Spencer - I’m saying 90%. I’m sure people will say that they’re 100%, but I just don’t think there’s such a thing as a lock.

AB: I’m going 75% chance of repeating
Carter: 50%
Nick: 50%
RBY: 33%. RBY is tricky. I’m still amazed he beat Fix last year, and I give him a ton of credit. And while he still has been excellent this year, he was even better last year. I have a feeling he’s pacing himself, and he’ll kick it into higher gear each week until NCAAs, but he does appear more vulnerable to upset in my opinion RIGHT NOW. I hope to upgrade my probability prediction on him to around 50% by NCAAs (as if my prediction matters!)