Pac-12 Future... Are OSU/WSU making a go of it?

[Dawgg]

So, George Kliavkoff is done on Feb 29 and is being replaced by Teresa Gould, who has been a deputy AD for the Pac-12 since 2018. Do you guys think Washington State and Oregon State are going to actually try to rebuild this thing or is this hire just to make sure the Pac-12 is dismantled in an orderly fashion?

Just a refresher on where things stand:

• Oregon State and Washington State now have total control over the Pac-12, its name, its physical and digital property, its media rights, the Pac-12 Network, and any revenue due to the conference.
• The NCAA requires Division I conferences to have 7 members, but allows a grace period of 2 years, so the Pac-12 could operate as a 2 team conference until the end of the 2025-26 athletic season.
• The Pac-12 has not yet had its 'Autonomy 5' (aka Power 5) status revoked and there have been no reports (at least that I've seen) that it will unless it dissolves.
• Pac-12 commissioner still has a seat on the CFP committee and the Pac-12 is still an automatic qualifier for the CFP. There is a vote this week to determine if that will be the case going forward, with it largely expected that the Pac-12 will lose its AQ status in exchange for OSU and WSU continuing to get Power 5 level payouts for a TBD amount of time.
• Washington State and Oregon State have joined the WCC as affiliate members for 2024-25 and 2025-2026 sports outside of football and will pay the WCC about $1.6 million for that with no possibility for media payouts. The exit fee to leave the WCC before 2026 is $125,000. OSU/WSU are both eligible to play in the WCC postseason and win the WCC Championship in any sport where they participate.
• Washington State and Oregon State have entered into a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West for football for the 2024-25 season and will pay the league $14 Million. The MWC will play 7 conference games and 1 game against either OSU or WSU. The games against OSU/WSU do not count in the MWC standings and neither school can play in their championship game.
• The Pac-12's media rights deal expires at the end of June 2024, which means that WSU and OSU home football games technically have no television home for the fall 2024 season.
• As mentioned, Kliavkoff will leave on Feb 29, 2024 and Gould will take over on Mar 1, 2024, which will technically make her the first ever woman to be commissioner of a Power 5 conference.

 

[L4Dawg]

I think you will see them in the Mountain West eventually. It may wind up being called the PAC 12.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I think you will see them in the Mountain West eventually. It may wind up being called the PAC 12.

It’ll be the Pac-14 if all Mountain West schools join up in this reverse merger even though Hawaii is only an affiliate member.

The Pac-13 sounds like it’d be bad juju otherwise.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

One of the theories around here is the Beavs and Cougs are going to take the top 10 teams from the MWC (Sorry Hawaii and New Mexico.) Then the MWC will reform with the Big Sky nearly all moving up. We shall see...

 

[DawgatAuburn]

One of the theories around here is the Beavs and Cougs are going to take the top 10 teams from the MWC (Sorry Hawaii and New Mexico.) Then the MWC will reform with the Big Sky nearly all moving up. We shall see...

Yes, and if that happens, there will be a discussion about whether the new Pac 12 is really a power conference or just a rebranded Mountain West. Even Kirk Schulz acknowledges that will be a very contentious discussion.

 

[L4Dawg]

It’ll be the Pac-14 if all Mountain West schools join up in this reverse merger even though Hawaii is only an affiliate member.

The Pac-13 sounds like it’d be bad juju otherwise.

The Big 10 says it's ok if they can't count.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Yes, and if that happens, there will be a discussion about whether the new Pac 12 is really a power conference or just a rebranded Mountain West. Even Kirk Schulz acknowledges that will be a very contentious discussion.

I wonder if it matters. In a few years when the ACC gets raided, it will be the SEC/B1G, then the next tier, then the rest. I’ve long advocated that Oregon/Washington States join the Big 12, forming a Tier 2 so to speak with the Big 12 and new ACC, but it doesn’t really matter if it’s that or the new PAC-12, Big 12 and ACC. Still a solid Tier 2 group of conferences. Keeps the pyramid going, especially with all the new FCS schools coming onboard to FBS in the coming years.

I mean Kennesaw State is about to be FBS. Think about that. Their stadium holds like 8K.

 

[GloryDawg]

They will start reaching out and will be selective. They are keeping that name. SD State will get an invite and possibly Boise State.

 

[GloryDawg]

I also think yes, the ones who went to the Big 10 will get a pay day but they will struggle to win. The fans will not be happy with the results on the field and the road games being so far away. The ones that went to the Big 12 will not get the pay day but will not struggle to win the conference. You will probably see one of them in the playoff before the ones that went to the Big 10. Many of the games will be a little closer. Obviously, my opinion.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

The SEC is playing their hand close to the vest. I really don't think they want FSU and Clemson. I do think they want North Carolina but so does B1G. But schools like N. Carolina that have athletics programs like Lacrosse and Men's Soccer where they compete for championships May not want to give up the obscure sports that has no SEC affiliation so they may go B1G and add hockey and curling.***

 

[MStateDawg]

I think they're waiting on some MWC media deal to expire so there can be a merge without those teams having to pay a penalty to leave the MWC.

I suspect this new PAC12 look something like this:

1. Oregon State
2. Washington State
3. Boise State
4. Utah State
5. Nevada
6. UNLV
7. Fresno State
8. San Jose State
9. San Diego State
10. Air Force
11. Colorado State
12. Wyoming

 

[GloryDawg]

I think they're waiting on some MWC media deal to expire so there can be a merge without those teams having to pay a penalty to leave the MWC.

I suspect this new PAC12 look something like this:

1. Oregon State
2. Washington State
3. Boise State
4. Utah State
5. Nevada
6. UNLV
7. Fresno State
8. San Jose State
9. San Diego State
10. Air Force
11. Colorado State
12. Wyoming

You could possibly add in New Mexico or New Mexico State.

 

[Dawgg]

I think they're waiting on some MWC media deal to expire so there can be a merge without those teams having to pay a penalty to leave the MWC.

I suspect this new PAC12 look something like this:

1. Oregon State
2. Washington State
3. Boise State
4. Utah State
5. Nevada
6. UNLV
7. Fresno State
8. San Jose State
9. San Diego State
10. Air Force
11. Colorado State
12. Wyoming

The Mountain West's media deal with CBS runs out during the summer of 2026, which is when the grace period for the Pac-12 to increase to 7 members also ends. The Mountain West's exit fee structure is 3 times their average payout if they give 2 years notice and 6 times if they give less than 2 years. This amounts to $17 Million for a 2 year notice and $34 Million for less. Theoretically, they could wait until their media deal runs out and then $0 x 6 still equals $0, but that's incredibly risky to have your conference (and more specifically) be without a media rights deal and no guarantee that you'll have one at your new home.

I think it's more likely that the Mountain West would vote to dissolve itself and reconstitute itself under the Pac-12 banner with OSU and WSU. Then the new Pac-12 would have to obtain a new media deal. The way to get around that would be if CBS buys the Pac-12 media rights and sets up a pro-rata for every MWC school that the Pac-12 signs. CBS could then have a late night Pac-12 game and put the other games on CBS Sports Network and Paramount+. Honestly, I thought this was the direction they were going to once OSU/WSU got control of the Pac-12 and basically just replace Kliavkoff with Gloria Nevarez, the MWC commissioner, but hiring Teresa Gould kind of makes me think that's not the direction they're going.

 

[Dawgg]

I also think yes, the ones who went to the Big 10 will get a pay day but they will struggle to win. The fans will not be happy with the results on the field and the road games being so far away. The ones that went to the Big 12 will not get the pay day but will not struggle to win the conference. You will probably see one of them in the playoff before the ones that went to the Big 10. Many of the games will be a little closer. Obviously, my opinion.

I think you're right. I think Utah or Arizona probably wins the Big 12 within the next 3 years. Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA may (and probably will) go the next decade without even appearing in the Big Ten Championship game.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

The fans will not be happy with the results on the field and the road games being so far away.

I think this is overblown. It actually might make them care more and start spending more money (like aTm had to do, and still without results).

 

[uptowndawg]

I think before the decade is up we're eventually going to end up with a ~60 team league split into 4 geographical conferences. All of this realignment between now and then is just conferences posturing to own the tv rights of hot teams so they can sell high when consolidation comes .