Playoff Expansion - what are they REALLY going to do?

[Smoked Toag]

And what actually makes any sense at all?

So the 'Alliance' votes against the 12-team playoff (still don't know why, it's better for them), and then less than a year later the big brother of the alliance stabs little brother and takes his bike. That tells me this is cutthroat and there are no friends, only what we can actually do for each other. The SEC and Big Ten aren't friends, even if they appear to be. And the SEC and Big Ten certainly aren't friends with anyone else, I remember when the SEC was 'aligned' with the Big 12 too, el oh el.

We know that the conferences ultimately own the playoff, and it ends in 2026 or whatever. What is the true next step? Are we simply going to have maybe a 4-team playoff within these huge conferences, that feeds into a 4-team national playoff? Or something like that? Or will they still go with a 12-team playoff? What happens to the rest of FBS? Do they get a shot at it at all? Would the Big Ten and SEC champs get automatic spots into the 4-team national playoff, along with 2 at-larges from the 'rest'?

I got to thinking about Omaha yesterday, and having so many SEC teams in it kinda makes it boring. Well, may as well get ready for that to be the case every year. It's going to be the damn SEC/Big Ten invitational.

Why does anybody think what they are doing is a good idea? They are literally ruining college sports. I didn't think there was any way that was possible, but these damn corporate baby boomer clowns have done it.

I guess we really will get a split in FBS.

 

[patdog]

I think we’re gonna see an 8 or 12 team playoff with no automatic bids. It will be whatever the SEC & Big 10 agree on. The others were foolish not to take the deal last year. It was a great deal for them, even the Big 10 hadn’t taken USC & UCLA.

 

[Go Budaw]

12 team playoff (or more) is still going to happen, probably by 2026.

The alliance was simply a backroom stop gap measure for the Big 10 to keep a check on the ACC and Pac 12 while they figured out how they were going to counter the SEC’s additions of Texas / OU. Now that its pretty much dissolved in hellfire at this point, the conferences can go back to doing what’s in their own best interests. And its in everybody’s best interest monetarily to expand the CFP.

 

[Smoked Toag]

12 team playoff (or more) is still going to happen, probably by 2026.

The alliance was simply a backroom stop gap measure for the Big 10 to keep a check on the ACC and Pac 12 while they figured out how they were going to counter the SEC’s additions of Texas / OU. Now that its pretty much dissolved in hellfire at this point, the conferences can go back to doing what’s in their own best interests. And its in everybody’s best interest monetarily to expand the CFP.

Makes sense. I've given up any idealistic outcomes from this ****** mess, and am just trying to follow the money. It almost seems like Sankey could have gotten the 12-teamer votes, THEN announced the Texas/Oklahoma news. Who knows, it was probably leaked before anybody wanted it to come out. So it goes in this day and age.

The ACC and Pac-12 certainly look like the bitches at this point.

 

[patdog]

I think A&M leaked it to try to stop it, but it was far too late.

 

[olblue.sixpack]

Makes sense. I've given up any idealistic outcomes from this ****** mess, and am just trying to follow the money. It almost seems like Sankey could have gotten the 12-teamer votes, THEN announced the Texas/Oklahoma news. Who knows, it was probably leaked before anybody wanted it to come out. So it goes in this day and age.

The ACC and Pac-12 certainly look like the bitches at this point.

That is one complicated prank.

 

[Smoked Toag]

That is one complicated prank.

How many times did you downvote me today? I'm impressed (and pity) your dedication.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

ND is the fly in the ointment.

 

[coachnorm]

12 team playoff (or more) is still going to happen, probably by 2026.

The alliance was simply a backroom stop gap measure for the Big 10 to keep a check on the ACC and Pac 12 while they figured out how they were going to counter the SEC’s additions of Texas / OU. Now that its pretty much dissolved in hellfire at this point, the conferences can go back to doing what’s in their own best interests. And its in everybody’s best interest monetarily to expand the CFP.

If the 12 team playoff is somehow attempted there will be no Disney/ESPN aka SEC or Fox BIG teams participating because they will have their own money making gig. Their victor WILL be the National CHAMPS. All they have to worry about is scheduling not to compete with the NFL. The others not in the P2 can do whatever they want with little interest just like the Basketball NIT? Do you think Notre Dame will put themselves outside that bubble, looking in, in the end game?

 

[Go Budaw]

If the 12 team playoff is somehow attempted there will be no Disney/ESPN aka SEC or Fox BIG teams participating because they will have their own money making gig. Their victor WILL be the National CHAMPS. All they have to worry about is scheduling not to compete with the NFL. The others not in the P2 can do whatever they want with little interest just like the Basketball NIT? Do you think Notre Dame will put themselves outside that bubble, looking in, in the end game?

That’s doubtful. Any playoff that excludes half of the existing P5 and all of G5 from consideration is not going to be viewed as legitimate. And there is no way the SEC or the Big 10 would ever agree to anything that further props up the other at the expense of everyone else. And perhaps more importantly, ESPN / Fox wouldn’t agree to it either.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

At the rate things are going, the SEC and Big 10 each have their own 4-8 team brackets, with the winner of each squaring off in the Rose Bowl for the National Title.

 

[patdog]

Those schools are excluded whether they’re included or not. They’ll be included, but not with automatic bids. You’ll wind up with 3 or so out of the 12 from outside the big 2. They’ll lose quickly.

 

[HotMop]

At the rate things are going, the SEC and Big 10 each have their own 4-8 team brackets, with the winner of each squaring off in the Rose Bowl for the National Title.

We could really ratchet it up by playing it in Shreveport!

 

[coachnorm]

At the rate things are going, the SEC and Big 10 each have their own 4-8 team brackets, with the winner of each squaring off in the Rose Bowl for the National Title.

Probably close but it will be 4-5 team brackets each because they will limit inclusion into the P2 because they do not want to share the big payouts coming their way. The purpose is to suck all the talent into the P2. I also think that low performers will get relegated out of the P2 because those who control the puppet strings will impose their will on their new found subordinates. The new overlords want quality not quantity with their playoff format so forget this invite thing for outsiders outside the P2. Remember the NFL rules the time slots and CFB has to navigate around their superiors. Playoffs have to be finishing before the NFL starts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnZpa7K7FyY

 

[Go Budaw]

Those schools are excluded whether they’re included or not. They’ll be included, but not with automatic bids. You’ll wind up with 3 or so out of the 12 from outside the big 2. They’ll lose quickly.

So you’re saying out of ND, Florida State, Clemson, Oregon, Washington, Miami, Oklahoma State, and others there won’t be any legitimate contenders on a year to year basis? I’m calling BS on that.

The Big 10 specifically isn’t going to be able to just fill up a 12 team playoff. They are putting together a great TV deal conference, but they are still woefully short on elite football teams. Still looks like it’s going to be Ohio State, maybe Michigan, and everybody else.

 

[coachnorm]

So you’re saying out of ND, Florida State, Clemson, Oregon, Washington, Miami, Oklahoma State, and others there won’t be any legitimate contenders on a year to year basis? I’m calling BS on that.

The Big 10 specifically isn’t going to be able to just fill up a 12 team playoff. They are putting together a great TV deal conference, but they are still woefully short on elite football teams. Still looks like it’s going to be Ohio State, maybe Michigan, and everybody else.

That's why the BIG will add 4 quality additions as it appears the SEC is moving to. Both will have 20 teams to sort out their champion. If the BIG gets Notre Dame and possibly Oregon and Washington, they will do just fine, that gives them 19 and they can fish out another team. It would be funny to see the SEC shun Miami and Fox get that market?

 

[Go Budaw]

That's why the BIG will add 4 quality additions as it appears the SEC is moving to. Both will have 20 teams to sort out their champion. If the BIG gets Notre Dame and possibly Oregon and Washington, they will do just fine, that gives them 19 and they can fish out another team. It would be funny to see the SEC shun Miami and Fox get that market?

Big 10 isn’t getting ND. They will be able to name their price for a new TV deal starting in 2025 that they won’t have to share with anyone. Its not unrealistic at all for ND to land a deal that pays them $50 milllion + per year (up from the current $15 million they are getting from their awful NBC deal).

And nobody is getting any ACC teams any time soon either, due to their TV deal. And even if both conferences form 20 teams eventually, there will still be 20-25 P5 teams left that will undoubtedly form a 3rd conference.

 

[coachnorm]

Big 10 isn’t getting ND. They will be able to name their price for a new TV deal starting in 2025 that they won’t have to share with anyone. Its not unrealistic at all for ND to land a deal that pays them $50 milllion + per year (up from the current $15 million they are getting from their awful NBC deal).

And nobody is getting any ACC teams any time soon either, due to their TV deal. And even if both conferences form 20 teams eventually, there will still be 20-25 P5 teams left that will undoubtedly form a 3rd conference.

When Disney/ESPN and Fox get together to impose their will on college football, only a Disney/ESPN or Fox Conference program will be allowed into the CFB championship playoffs. If Notre Dame stays in its own bubble, it will be ineligible to participate to compete for a national championship because those hundreds of millions of dollars transferred say so. Notre Dame will capitulate to a stronger power. The big money will dwarf the ACC if it becomes problematic in finalizing the Disney/ESPN takeover. The Disney/ESPN Conference, formerly known as the SEC, will do whats necessary to pacify the resistance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0iAsETe5YU

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Which ever scenario gives them the most money. It's as simple as that. I also think will add a couple more teams to the SEC from the East Coast or rather east of Alabama

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

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https://aggypedia.com/aggypedia/

 

[Go Budaw]

When Disney/ESPN and Fox get together to impose their will on college football, only a Disney/ESPN or Fox Conference program will be allowed into the CFB championship playoffs. If Notre Dame stays in its own bubble, it will be ineligible to participate to compete for a national championship because those hundreds of millions of dollars transferred say so. Notre Dame will capitulate to a stronger power. The big money will dwarf the ACC if it becomes problematic in finalizing the Disney/ESPN takeover. The Disney/ESPN Conference, formerly known as the SEC, will do whats necessary to pacify the resistance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0iAsETe5YU

So why couldn’t ND just sign their next TV deal with ESPN or Fox? ND has had an opportunity to “capitulate to a greater power” for 100 years, and have never done so. There’s not a scenario where they will be forced into joining to appease TV networks. And if ESPN / Fox or whoever wants to pick them up in 2025, it won’t make any difference to the networks whether they are in a conference or on their own. They are the product.

 

[Smoked Toag]

So why couldn’t ND just sign their next TV deal with ESPN or Fox? ND has had an opportunity to “capitulate to a greater power” for 100 years, and have never done so. There’s not a scenario where they will be forced into joining to appease TV networks. And if ESPN / Fox or whoever wants to pick them up in 2025, it won’t make any difference to the networks whether they are in a conference or on their own. They are the product.

Yep the only thing that can bring ND down is if maybe all their fans are older or something, and they all aren't here in 20 years. But that's so far out in the future, no one cares. And I don't think that's a problem anyway, because Catholics everywhere still follow them. We may not understand that completely here in the South, but it's absolutely true.

And it's like people forget that they played for a title in 2012, and made 2 other playoffs. They aren't irrelevant. I could see some alumni getting behind this young coach they have and really getting some big talent. Losing Kelly is either going to wake them up or get them buried. I'd bet on the former.

 

[Go Budaw]

Yep the only thing that can bring ND down is if maybe all their fans are older or something, and they all aren't here in 20 years. But that's so far out in the future, no one cares. And I don't think that's a problem anyway, because Catholics everywhere still follow them. We may not understand that completely here in the South, but it's absolutely true.

And it's like people forget that they played for a title in 2012, and made 2 other playoffs. They aren't irrelevant. I could see some alumni getting behind this young coach they have and really getting some big talent. Losing Kelly is either going to wake them up or get them buried. I'd bet on the former.

Yeah, other than perhaps Alabama (and not even them, perhaps), there isn’t a bigger national TV draw in the college football landscape than Notre Dame. They are the adopted team by Catholics across the country, as well as the entire Chicago metropolitan area, people who like Rudy, and numerous other demographics / bandwagons. When their TV deal expires, they will get literally whatever they want….in regards to conference affiliation, CFP inclusion, and a TV deal.

Its pretty astonishing that in 2022 they are still only getting a paltry $15 million per year from NBC (and only $25 million overall when you include the ACC check for other sports). All the while, the likes of MSU, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Missouri are pulling in $55 million with that number going higher every year. I don’t suspect that inequity to last much longer. I said in another post they could get a new deal worth $50 million per year, but it could even exceed $100 million if they play hardball a lot better than they did in 2013 when they extended the current NBC deal.

 

[coachnorm]

So why couldn’t ND just sign their next TV deal with ESPN or Fox? ND has had an opportunity to “capitulate to a greater power” for 100 years, and have never done so. There’s not a scenario where they will be forced into joining to appease TV networks. And if ESPN / Fox or whoever wants to pick them up in 2025, it won’t make any difference to the networks whether they are in a conference or on their own. They are the product.

I believe you to be on point on many issues and your comment is to be respected. Right now there are new sheriffs in town and they are going to impose their will on college football because they are putting their money where their mouth is. It is just this cut and dry, the winner of the Disney/ESPN Conference versus the winner of the Fox Conference WILL be the National Champions. ND can not win either conference without being in one of them. If ND cannot compete for a national championship because they excluded themselves from the P2, their program and recruiting will implode at some point.

 

[Smoked Toag]

I believe you to be on point on many issues and your comment is to be respected. Right now there are new sheriffs in town and they are going to impose their will on college football because they are putting their money where their mouth is. It is just this cut and dry, the winner of the Disney/ESPN Conference versus the winner of the Fox Conference WILL be the National Champions. ND can not win either conference without being in one of them. If ND cannot compete for a national championship because they excluded themselves from the P2, their program and recruiting will implode at some point.

Both of you guys are right, but your situation likely just will not play out immediately. It's impossible to tell when the money will be such that ND joins a conference, or when the SEC/B2G decide to go poaching again.

The smart money in on things slowing down for the foreseeable future, except for playoff expansion a few years from now. Then 10 years or so from now it'll blow up again, which has kinda been the trend. Early 90s, 2003/2004, 2011/2012, now.....etc. And it'll be a different 'trend' that does it 10 years from now, wherever the money is flowing at the time.

 

[coachnorm]

I believe you to be on point on many issues and your comment is to be respected. Right now there are new sheriffs in town and they are going to impose their will on college football because they are putting their money where their mouth is. It is just this cut and dry, the winner of the Disney/ESPN Conference versus the winner of the Fox Conference WILL be the National Champions. ND can not win either conference without being in one of them. If ND cannot compete for a national championship because they excluded themselves from the P2, their program and recruiting will implode at some point.

Please bear in mind that I do not like what's evolving. I stick by some of my few statements because I see things as the narrator of the YouTube link attached. Do not underestimate how scummy ESPN really is? It's really going to get nasty when ESPN orders Vanderbilt out of the Disney/ESPN Conference to get an upgrade like Baylor? Check out the link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdkZ2OwrOuA