Poopops is definitely dumb

[johnson86-1]

when it comes to his weather preferences, but the lumber market may make him look a little less dumb.

2x4 prices have crashed...all the way to the old peak. If it stops there and the new low really is the old peak, I'll concede that his idiocy may stop at weather and Buccee's brisket.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/lumber-prices-housing-market-31944c27

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

It was a mild winter at my house.

 

[dorndawg]

2x4s aren't at the old peak - adjusted for inflation, they're far closer to the old valley. That said, you're probably not seeing a lot of that reflected at Home Depot etc, just yet. Lumber as a commodity has been taking a beating for several weeks and that is very likely to continue through 3Q24.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

2x4s aren't at the old peak - adjusted for inflation, they're far closer to the old valley. That said, you're probably not seeing a lot of that reflected at Home Depot etc, just yet. Lumber as a commodity has been taking a beating for several weeks and that is very likely to continue through 3Q24.

That's probably a great way to explain supercycles in commodities. They don't recognize yearly inflation, it accumulates for a decade then raises the floor to the old ceiling with one permanent step up vs something like stocks that grind higher consistently.

I would bet inflation adjusted lumber is half price today vs the 70's.