Toggle sidebar

PSA: A&M is -2 vs a team with 1 road win today.

QuaoarsKing

QuaoarsKing

Well-known member
Mar 11, 2008
4,735
713
113
msstate7 said:
I'm just curious. I have no expectations and I've been crushed so many times that I have no hope left
Click to expand...

We definitely shouldn't do this to ourselves, but according to Bart Torvik:
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Mississippi+St.&year=2022


  • We are currently at a 1% chance to make the tournament
  • A win today bumps us up to 6%.
  • I don't know exactly how the SEC Tournament bracket is going to shake out, but also beating Alabama in game 1 and losing to Kentucky in the quarterfinals puts us at 15%.
  • Beating Texas A&M today, then Alabama and Kentucky and losing to Tennessee puts us at 59%.
  • Beating Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee and then losing to Auburn in the SEC Championship Game gives us 84% and then slots us into a 9 seed.

I know, I know, none of that's going to happen. But after everything we still have a narrow path to play our way in.
 
V

VegasDawg13

Member
Jun 11, 2007
2,166
65
48
msstate7 said:
They're #56 and we're 57th in NET. Seems if this win (Q2) would move them in a tourney, then a Q1 win for us would get us in the conversation
Click to expand...
NET is just one metric and more of a starting point. Some differences between us:

1) We're 3-10 away from home. Even among the flawed teams that comprise the bubble, that is very bad. They're a respectable 7-7

2) Their best win was a 16-pt win on the road at Alabama. Our best win was a 1-pt win at home over that same team.

3) Nearly all of their losses came in a row. I don't know if they were missing a key player or something, but they could get a bump if that's the case.

4) I really don't think they have much of a shot anyway.
 
M

msstate7

Member
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
QuaoarsKing said:
We definitely shouldn't do this to ourselves, but according to Bart Torvik:
https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Mississippi+St.&year=2022


  • We are currently at a 1% chance to make the tournament
  • A win today bumps us up to 6%.
  • I don't know exactly how the SEC Tournament bracket is going to shake out, but also beating Alabama in game 1 and losing to Kentucky in the quarterfinals puts us at 15%.
  • Beating Texas A&M today, then Alabama and Kentucky and losing to Tennessee puts us at 59%.
  • Beating Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee and then losing to Auburn in the SEC Championship Game gives us 84% and then slots us into a 9 seed.

I know, I know, none of that's going to happen. But after everything we still have a narrow path to play our way in.
Click to expand...

Good info. Thanks
 
D

DAWG61

New member
Feb 26, 2008
10,111
0
0
A chance is what makes March Madness so fun. Best tournament in any sport and it isn't close.
 
M

msstate7

Member
Nov 27, 2008
10,388
10
38
VegasDawg13 said:
NET is just one metric and more of a starting point. Some differences between us:

1) We're 3-10 away from home. Even among the flawed teams that comprise the bubble, that is very bad. They're a respectable 7-7

2) Their best win was a 16-pt win on the road at Alabama. Our best win was a 1-pt win at home over that same team.

3) Nearly all of their losses came in a row. I don't know if they were missing a key player or something, but they could get a bump if that's the case.

4) I really don't think they have much of a shot anyway.
Click to expand...

2 of those 7 in a row were home losses to SC and Missouri
 
DawgatAuburn

DawgatAuburn

Well-known member
Apr 25, 2006
10,634
942
113
Which tournament? Surely you don't mean the NCAAs. They are nowhere close to making it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Get unlimited access today.

Pick the right plan for you.

Already a member? Login
Top Bottom