Realistic expectations for Year 4

[18IsTheMan]

Considering the year we just had, what are realistic expectations for Year 4? What record would show progress?

The schedule is markedly easier for the non-conference slate, as we play ODU, Wofford and Akron. That gets us 3-0.

The SEC slate is more brutal and includes: Vandy, Ole Miss, Bama, OU, A&M, LSU, Missouri and UK. Of those games, the only ones I think we could consider for wins are UK and Vandy, with UK being a toss-up. We will not be favored in any other games. That gets us to 5-6.

Consider Clemson a likely loss and we are 5-7, at best. Possibly 4-8 if we lose to UK.

I don't see a path to 6 wins. We get Missouri at WB, so maybe we could pick that game off? But they own us and just thoroughly kicked our tails this year, so I don't see any reason why we should think we win that game.

As it seems every year, we enter the season with a host of unknowns. If ALL the chips fall our way...meaning Sellers turns out to be as good as we think/hope, the OL magically gels and starts playing well, we find a good RB combination, the D improves across the board (DL and secondary), Juice comes back healthy AND we find another WR...then maybe we change the narrative. But that's a lot that has to fall our way in one season.

 

[92Pony]

A pretty accurate assessment, I'd say. That's soberi........ No, wait; That's downright depressing.

'Wait 'til the year after the year after next'.........

 

[cockyferg]

And to think, we could have gone after drinkwitz. I see all of these other coaches having success at other schools who we could have gone after. We easily have the same, if not better, star level players as Mizzou, but they beat us because they have better coaches.

 

[18IsTheMan]

A pretty accurate assessment, I'd say. That's soberi........ No, wait; That's downright depressing.

'Wait 'til the year after the year after next'.........

Seriously, though, are we in a position where we are more or less writing off Year 4?

I'm sure by the time season rolls around, there will have been enough sunshine pumped that I talk myself into 7 wins being a possibility, but as I sit here right now, I see 5-7 as the absolute best record we can pull off.

 

[Lurker123]

Seriously, though, are we in a position where we are more or less writing off Year 4?

I'm sure by the time season rolls around, there will have been enough sunshine pumped that I talk myself into 7 wins being a possibility, but as I sit here right now, I see 5-7 as the absolute best record we can pull off.

Putting on my August glasses.

3 ooc patsies and vandy make 4 wins.

We beat UK again, and Missou takes a step back. 6 wins.

 

[will110]

Guaranteed win - 4
Wofford
Old Dominion
Akron
Vanderbilt

Toss-up - 4
at Kentucky
Missouri
Texas A&M
Ole Miss

Likely loss - 2
Clemson
LSU

Guaranteed loss - 2
Oklahoma
Alabama

We get Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in Williams-Brice. I feel like we get at least one of those at home. Nobody has any idea what A&M will look like under Elko. Missouri is losing a lot, if I'm not mistaken. Ole Miss is always that solid team but they're beatable.

Those four games I've listed under toss-ups will make or break the season. Win a couple of those and you've got a shot at something positive.

 

[Celtic Riot]

I can argue a 5-win season I could argue an 8-win season. I guess it just depends on how ready Lanorris is and how much better the OL plays if they remain healthy. Couple portal pieces and maybe another year in the 3-3-5 or Stewart being the missing piece in the 4-2-5. I could see them not torching earth but getting back to 7-8 regular season.

 

[Lurker123]

Guaranteed win - 4
Wofford
Old Dominion
Akron
Vanderbilt

Toss-up - 4
at Kentucky
Missouri
Texas A&M
Ole Miss

Likely loss - 2
Clemson
LSU

Guaranteed loss - 2
Oklahoma
Alabama

We get Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in Williams-Brice. I feel like we get at least one of those at home. Nobody has any idea what A&M will look like under Elko. Missouri is losing a lot, if I'm not mistaken. Ole Miss is always that solid team but they're beatable.

Those four games I've listed under toss-ups will make or break the season. Win a couple of those and you've got a shot at something positive.

I have a higher opinion of Ole miss apparently. And A&M beat us this year while floundering.

I suppose we should see about the transition at A&M first, but I'd move both of those to your "likely loss" and agree with the rest.

 

[rkierstead8]

Guaranteed win - 4
Wofford
Old Dominion
Akron
Vanderbilt

Toss-up - 4
at Kentucky
Missouri
Texas A&M
Ole Miss

Likely loss - 2
Clemson
LSU

Guaranteed loss - 2
Oklahoma
Alabama

We get Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in Williams-Brice. I feel like we get at least one of those at home. Nobody has any idea what A&M will look like under Elko. Missouri is losing a lot, if I'm not mistaken. Ole Miss is always that solid team but they're beatable.

Those four games I've listed under toss-ups will make or break the season. Win a couple of those and you've got a shot at something positive.

Clemson is losing a good bit on defense and their offense is sub par. I don't see that as a likely loss. Also, depending on when the schedule plays it out, I could see us competing with Oklahoma as well. They almost always lose 1 or 2 that leave you scratching your head.

 

[VidaliaGamecock]

Considering the year we just had, what are realistic expectations for Year 4? What record would show progress?

The schedule is markedly easier for the non-conference slate, as we play ODU, Wofford and Akron. That gets us 3-0.

The SEC slate is more brutal and includes: Vandy, Ole Miss, Bama, OU, A&M, LSU, Missouri and UK. Of those games, the only ones I think we could consider for wins are UK and Vandy, with UK being a toss-up. We will not be favored in any other games. That gets us to 5-6.

Consider Clemson a likely loss and we are 5-7, at best. Possibly 4-8 if we lose to UK.

I don't see a path to 6 wins. We get Missouri at WB, so maybe we could pick that game off? But they own us and just thoroughly kicked our tails this year, so I don't see any reason why we should think we win that game.

As it seems every year, we enter the season with a host of unknowns. If ALL the chips fall our way...meaning Sellers turns out to be as good as we think/hope, the OL magically gels and starts playing well, we find a good RB combination, the D improves across the board (DL and secondary), Juice comes back healthy AND we find another WR...then maybe we change the narrative. But that's a lot that has to fall our way in one season.

I don't see a better record than 3-9 or 4-8. I cannot see one position at which we are better. There is a great argument that we're worse. We really have to nail the transfer portal or Beamer is on the hot seat. It is going to be a painful year to watch.

 

[Lurker123]

I don't see a better record than 3-9 or 4-8. I cannot see one position at which we are better. There is a great argument that we're worse. We really have to nail the transfer portal or Beamer is on the hot seat. It is going to be a painful year to watch.

With the 3 patsies and vandy though, don't you think 4 is easily achievable?

 

[VZVZ]

Nevermind. A&M not confirmed for Nov 2.

 

[Kdaddy78]

We will have a QB thats never started a college game, losing XL, and some key starters on DL. Throw that in with the schedule and 6 wins would be it I think. Its sad that .500 is our goal but based on this year, and the lack of progression, 4-5 may be more in line. I mean, damn. No more wait til next year?

 

[92Pony]

My suspicion is that Elmo quickly gets A&M up to speed. Jimbo stinks, and there’s plenty of talent to be coached there.

 

[Uscg1984]

Guaranteed win - 4
Wofford
Old Dominion
Akron
Vanderbilt

Toss-up - 4
at Kentucky
Missouri
Texas A&M
Ole Miss

Likely loss - 2
Clemson
LSU

Guaranteed loss - 2
Oklahoma
Alabama

We get Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in Williams-Brice. I feel like we get at least one of those at home. Nobody has any idea what A&M will look like under Elko. Missouri is losing a lot, if I'm not mistaken. Ole Miss is always that solid team but they're beatable.

Those four games I've listed under toss-ups will make or break the season. Win a couple of those and you've got a shot at something positive.

I agree with your assessment except that I would move Ole Miss to the "Likely Loss" column, assuming Lane Kiffin is still there next year.

I think the OP's question turns on the definition of "expectation." Are we talking about expectations in the sense of setting benchmarks, or are we talking about expectations in the sense of what we think will happen?

If you are asking for my benchmark expectations, I don't think 7-5 is an unreasonable benchmark for Beamer's 4th season, even with our schedule next year. I expect to see improvement! Appreciable improvement! A team that is appreciably improved from the one we saw this year can win 7 games on next year's schedule. Win the 4 likely wins and two of the toss-ups and that's 6 wins right there. An _improved_ team will figure out a way to get 1 more win from the rest.

If you are talking about what I _think_ will happen, it's too early to tell. We don't even know who will be coaching some of these teams next year, let alone how good they will be. We also don't know how the portal transfers will turn out. The only guarantee is that there will be teams on our schedule who are surprisingly good and some who are surprisingly bad.

But just a word about "improvement." You don't get bonus points for mere improvement because you sucked this year. I'd rather you show no improvement year over year and go 8-4 both years than to have a sucky 5-7 year only to show mild improvement in the next. Having a setback this year, just means that you have even more ground to make up next year.

 

[Evilchicken]

Considering the year we just had, what are realistic expectations for Year 4? What record would show progress?

The schedule is markedly easier for the non-conference slate, as we play ODU, Wofford and Akron. That gets us 3-0.

The SEC slate is more brutal and includes: Vandy, Ole Miss, Bama, OU, A&M, LSU, Missouri and UK. Of those games, the only ones I think we could consider for wins are UK and Vandy, with UK being a toss-up. We will not be favored in any other games. That gets us to 5-6.

Consider Clemson a likely loss and we are 5-7, at best. Possibly 4-8 if we lose to UK.

I don't see a path to 6 wins. We get Missouri at WB, so maybe we could pick that game off? But they own us and just thoroughly kicked our tails this year, so I don't see any reason why we should think we win that game.

As it seems every year, we enter the season with a host of unknowns. If ALL the chips fall our way...meaning Sellers turns out to be as good as we think/hope, the OL magically gels and starts playing well, we find a good RB combination, the D improves across the board (DL and secondary), Juice comes back healthy AND we find another WR...then maybe we change the narrative. But that's a lot that has to fall our way in one season.

You start a lot of threads.

 

[1vagamecock]

I still believe in Beamer. 6-6 will probably were we will be at next year, but i really look for a big jump in 25.
I never believed the hype going into this year. We simply didn't have the players, and even if we didn't have injuries I think 6-6 was the ceiling.
I've been a fan for a lot of years so I don't buy into hype just because someone tells me too.

 

[mickray]

Looking at the all-time tendencies of 51% winning = 6-6. So 7-6 or 8-6 is a bonus. 5-7 or 4-8 is a downer.

 

[Big JC]

6-6 is where Carolina football lives. I wouldn't be surprised to see that.

 

[18IsTheMan]

You start a lot of threads.

I’m glad you follow me so closely

 

[DeBoer31]

This goes back to the arguments many of us had a couple years ago. The Sunshine Pumpers vs. realists. I want Beamer to succeed - but with no proven, consistent track record as a coordinator (much less HC) - this has got to go down as the biggest HC gamble in big time college football history. If you're gonna go "unknown" with a coach one would think you go after a proven coach / coordinator at lower levels that is an "unknown" /non big name or one that isn't in the running for the bigger jobs.
Like VAGamecock said above - i've been around far too long to believe or buy into the early hype just b/c I was "supposed" to. Life in the SEC...it's tough. We can't rely on UF being in major transition, or UT and Mizzou breaking in new coaches as well. We are nearing a ledge. I hope Beamer and company are in scramble survival mode. I just wish someone would convince SB to Hire a big time coaching talent for OC and NOT worry about that guy overshadowing and threatening his HC position.

 

[Deleted11512]

Guaranteed win - 4
Wofford
Old Dominion
Akron
Vanderbilt

Toss-up - 4
at Kentucky
Missouri
Texas A&M
Ole Miss

Likely loss - 2
Clemson
LSU

Guaranteed loss - 2
Oklahoma
Alabama

We get Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M in Williams-Brice. I feel like we get at least one of those at home. Nobody has any idea what A&M will look like under Elko. Missouri is losing a lot, if I'm not mistaken. Ole Miss is always that solid team but they're beatable.

Those four games I've listed under toss-ups will make or break the season. Win a couple of those and you've got a shot at something positive.

I don’t think Clem or LSU are likely losses. I actually think we’ll be one of the most improved teams in the SEC. Getting the OL healthy and adding a QB that can also run is going to help our running game so much. So damn glad Juice is coming back too. We’re missing a dog on the field. He’s been going after Mukuba on IG today and I love it.
But I’m going with 7-5.

 

[Big JC]

This goes back to the arguments many of us had a couple years ago. The Sunshine Pumpers vs. realists. I want Beamer to succeed - but with no proven, consistent track record as a coordinator (much less HC) - this has got to go down as the biggest HC gamble in big time college football history. If you're gonna go "unknown" with a coach one would think you go after a proven coach / coordinator at lower levels that is an "unknown" /non big name or one that isn't in the running for the bigger jobs.
Like VAGamecock said above - i've been around far too long to believe or buy into the early hype just b/c I was "supposed" to. Life in the SEC...it's tough. We can't rely on UF being in major transition, or UT and Mizzou breaking in new coaches as well. We are nearing a ledge. I hope Beamer and company are in scramble survival mode. I just wish someone would convince SB to Hire a big time coaching talent for OC and NOT worry about that guy overshadowing and threatening his HC position.

I wonder if a "big time OC" i.e. Riley at Clemson would even consider taking a job with Beamer at USC? What is the real appeal or draw to bring a big name OC to a .500 program with a head coach who is still learning the job? What program can USC go into and steal an OC from that would be an almost automatic winner?

Face it, Carolina is about like Mississippi State as far as a football power and coveted destination. We aren't going to steal a big name from a big time program.

 

[Deleted11512]

This goes back to the arguments many of us had a couple years ago. The Sunshine Pumpers vs. realists. I want Beamer to succeed - but with no proven, consistent track record as a coordinator (much less HC) - this has got to go down as the biggest HC gamble in big time college football history. If you're gonna go "unknown" with a coach one would think you go after a proven coach / coordinator at lower levels that is an "unknown" /non big name or one that isn't in the running for the bigger jobs.
Like VAGamecock said above - i've been around far too long to believe or buy into the early hype just b/c I was "supposed" to. Life in the SEC...it's tough. We can't rely on UF being in major transition, or UT and Mizzou breaking in new coaches as well. We are nearing a ledge. I hope Beamer and company are in scramble survival mode. I just wish someone would convince SB to Hire a big time coaching talent for OC and NOT worry about that guy overshadowing and threatening his HC position.

Dabo was a bigger gamble. Cuse just hired a DB coach that’s never been a coordinator. Sam Pittman has never been a coordinator. It’s not unheard of. There are no guarantees or can’t missed. Pittman had the best coordinator duo in the country. Track down Todd Monkens background before UGA.

 

[KingWard]

Realistic expectations for Year 4​

Man, I just can't...

 

[mickray]

Man, I just can't...

Yep 6 and 6.

 

[Beanerball]

It will be another year of struggling to get to 6 wins for sure. Will need some player makers through the portal along with line help. Hard to judge now until we see what we can get. Still, will be hard to get to 6 wins.

 

[mickray]

sux

 

[18IsTheMan]

Dabo was a bigger gamble. Cuse just hired a DB coach that’s never been a coordinator. Sam Pittman has never been a coordinator. It’s not unheard of. There are no guarantees or can’t missed. Pittman had the best coordinator duo in the country. Track down Todd Monkens background before UGA.

I hope you’re right, but 7-5 would require everything we need to fall in place on the team to actually fall in place. This team is not just a tweak or two away in my opinion. It’s not just getting our OL healthy, it’s hoping they’re actually good when they are. Even if Juice comes back strong, that gives us 1 WR. And so on.

 

[Jonesz2]

Considering the year we just had, what are realistic expectations for Year 4? What record would show progress?

The schedule is markedly easier for the non-conference slate, as we play ODU, Wofford and Akron. That gets us 3-0.

The SEC slate is more brutal and includes: Vandy, Ole Miss, Bama, OU, A&M, LSU, Missouri and UK. Of those games, the only ones I think we could consider for wins are UK and Vandy, with UK being a toss-up. We will not be favored in any other games. That gets us to 5-6.

Consider Clemson a likely loss and we are 5-7, at best. Possibly 4-8 if we lose to UK.

I don't see a path to 6 wins. We get Missouri at WB, so maybe we could pick that game off? But they own us and just thoroughly kicked our tails this year, so I don't see any reason why we should think we win that game.

As it seems every year, we enter the season with a host of unknowns. If ALL the chips fall our way...meaning Sellers turns out to be as good as we think/hope, the OL magically gels and starts playing well, we find a good RB combination, the D improves across the board (DL and secondary), Juice comes back healthy AND we find another WR...then maybe we change the narrative. But that's a lot that has to fall our way in one season.

We don’t judge success by wins and losses. Obviously

 

[Deleted11512]

I hope you’re right, but 7-5 would require everything we need to fall in place on the team to actually fall in place. This team is not just a tweak or two away in my opinion. It’s not just getting our OL healthy, it’s hoping they’re actually good when they are. Even if Juice comes back strong, that gives us 1 WR. And so on.

Let’s let the portal play out.

 

[cockyferg]

We will have a QB thats never started a college game, losing XL, and some key starters on DL. Throw that in with the schedule and 6 wins would be it I think. Its sad that .500 is our goal but based on this year, and the lack of progression, 4-5 may be more in line. I mean, damn. No more wait til next year?

There's always hope. DeShawn Watson and Trevor Lawrence came in as freshman with limited snaps and did pretty well. With some improved O Line play, he could impress us all and be a real talent back there at QB. He has the intangibles, but we will need more than one competent receiver next year.

 

[will110]

I have a higher opinion of Ole miss apparently. And A&M beat us this year while floundering.

I suppose we should see about the transition at A&M first, but I'd move both of those to your "likely loss" and agree with the rest.

If we were at Ole Miss and A&M I'd have them in the likely loss. I just feel the home field advantage gives us a good shot.

 

[will110]

I agree with your assessment except that I would move Ole Miss to the "Likely Loss" column, assuming Lane Kiffin is still there next year.

I think the OP's question turns on the definition of "expectation." Are we talking about expectations in the sense of setting benchmarks, or are we talking about expectations in the sense of what we think will happen?

If you are asking for my benchmark expectations, I don't think 7-5 is an unreasonable benchmark for Beamer's 4th season, even with our schedule next year. I expect to see improvement! Appreciable improvement! A team that is appreciably improved from the one we saw this year can win 7 games on next year's schedule. Win the 4 likely wins and two of the toss-ups and that's 6 wins right there. An _improved_ team will figure out a way to get 1 more win from the rest.

If you are talking about what I _think_ will happen, it's too early to tell. We don't even know who will be coaching some of these teams next year, let alone how good they will be. We also don't know how the portal transfers will turn out. The only guarantee is that there will be teams on our schedule who are surprisingly good and some who are surprisingly bad.

But just a word about "improvement." You don't get bonus points for mere improvement because you sucked this year. I'd rather you show no improvement year over year and go 8-4 both years than to have a sucky 5-7 year only to show mild improvement in the next. Having a setback this year, just means that you have even more ground to make up next year.

Good points. I think a reasonable baseline expectation for EVERY season is making a bowl game. We should have made a bowl this year, even with the sucky season. Just a couple plays go our way against UF and we don't choke that one away.

It's going to be interesting to see when we play other teams, as well. If we play A&M in September I'm going to be a lot more optimistic than if we play them in November.

 

[Harvard Gamecock]

I still believe in Beamer. 6-6 will probably were we will be at next year, but i really look for a big jump in 25.
I never believed the hype going into this year. We simply didn't have the players, and even if we didn't have injuries I think 6-6 was the ceiling.
I've been a fan for a lot of years so I don't buy into hype just because someone tells me too.

I'm not calling you personally, but it is a sad state of affairs when the fanbase now starts chanting "Wait till next the year after next"

 

[18IsTheMan]

I'm not calling you personally, but it is a sad state of affairs when the fanbase now starts chanting "Wait till next the year after next"

I get you, and it is kind of sad. But, the reality of the situation is I think 2025 is when we SHOULD see the fruits of Beamer's work here. If, and I think it's a big IF, we can scratch out 6 wins next year, that would be a big win, in my opinion. That means we beat 1 of Bama, OU, A&M, Ole Miss, Clemson, Mizzou or LSU. We'll be underdogs in all of those games, for sure, so pulling an upset in just one of them, would be faint sign of progress. 2025, I think the bar should be 8-4.