Regional Pitching Question - Armchair Manager

[columbiadawg2]

Saw hot debate on Twitter about this so figured I'd bring it to the pack. You are the 1 seed hosting a regional, do you throw your ace game 1 or wait to game 2? What would cause you to throw your ace in game 1?

My thoughts: I'm almost always throwing my #2 or #3 in game 1 depending on the 4 seed I'm playing. As a 1 seed, you should be able to beat a 4 with your second option. The only time I'd throw my ace game one is if the 4 seed has a sure fire MLB draft pick throwing against us.

Interested in others thoughts?

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Saw hot debate on Twitter about this so figured I'd bring it to the pack. You are the 1 seed hosting a regional, do you throw your ace game 1 or wait to game 2? What would cause you to throw your ace in game 1?

My thoughts: I'm almost always throwing my #2 or #3 in game 1 depending on the 4 seed I'm playing. As a 1 seed, you should be able to beat a 4 with your second option. The only time I'd throw my ace game one is if the 4 seed has a sure fire MLB draft pick throwing against us.

Interested in others thoughts?

This has been discussed like 8,000 times.

Most times, you throw your ace in Game 2, if you only have one elite guy.

OG Arm Killa Jay Johnson is planning on throwing Skenes again on Monday, if needed. He did it with Nathan Bannister in 2016, right before they played us. Same thing Bianco did with Drew Pomeranz years ago. A lot of these coaches just have that mentality.

 

[columbiadawg2]

This has been discussed like 8,000 times.

Most times, you throw your ace in Game 2, if you only have one elite guy.

OG Arm Killa Jay Johnson is planning on throwing Skenes again on Monday, if needed. He did it with Nathan Bannister in 2016, right before they played us. Same thing Bianco did with Drew Pomeranz years ago. A lot of these coaches just have that mentality.

Yikes! I really hate when they do the Friday/Monday usage on guys who are potential early-rounders. Playing with someone's potential livelihood is scary stuff. I saw a regional a few years back where the kid was throwing his last game ever with zero pro potential. He had thrown a ton Friday and came back late Monday to try and hang on to upset the host but he knew he was done playing sports when that season ended. In those cases I get it but when millions are at stake, it's sad to see.

 

[patdog]

Yikes! I really hate when they do the Friday/Monday usage on guys who are potential early-rounders. Playing with someone's potential livelihood is scary stuff. I saw a regional a few years back where the kid was throwing his last game ever with zero pro potential. He had thrown a ton Friday and came back late Monday to try and hang on to upset the host but he knew he was done playing sports when that season ended. In those cases I get it but when millions are at stake, it's sad to see.

Blame the NCAA. The regional format is terrible. Need to play 3 rounds of best of 3series to advance to Omaha. You’d get better quality baseball & more host sites.

 

[dawgnabit]

Throwing Skenes against a team that has 40 losses this year is definitely an interesting move

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Blame the NCAA. The regional format is terrible. Need to play 3 rounds of best of 3series to advance to Omaha. You’d get better quality baseball & more host sites.

I don't 100% agree with the specifics, but agree with the premise. And then especially when you consider Omaha uses the same regional then super format, but spreads it out over roughly double the time. So what can you really get used to? Postseason needs to somehow mirror what you play in the season.

To me, they need to either spread out regionals, or condense Omaha brackets.

 

[ronpolk]

Throwing Skenes against a team that has 40 losses this year is definitely an interesting move

I agree but I do understand the coaches thought process. It’s the only way to even potentially have Skenes available Monday if you need him… but I don’t know if I’d throw him in game 1 or not.

 

[patdog]

Postseason needs to somehow mirror what you play in the season.

We play 3-game weekends all season, then ask one team to play 5 games in 4 days to win a regional with only 11.7 scholarships. Ridiculous. And puts tremendous pressure in coaches to risk pitchers’ arms. Nobody has the pitching depth for that.

 

[paindonthurt]

This has been discussed like 8,000 times.

Most times, you throw your ace in Game 2, if you only have one elite guy.

OG Arm Killa Jay Johnson is planning on throwing Skenes again on Monday, if needed. He did it with Nathan Bannister in 2016, right before they played us. Same thing Bianco did with Drew Pomeranz years ago. A lot of these coaches just have that mentality.

Came here to post this.
Gets discussed every year.
Everyone has an opinion and everyone knows they are right.

Truth is there is no correct answer. Depends on the situation. Even then you are only right if it works.

 

[Msuirondawgs]

Speaking of Skenes...This is ridiculous. WTF

 

[Dawgbite]

Pitching Skenes first game gives them the possibility to bring him back in game 4 or 5 even if it's a relief appearance. If you save him for game two then he's likely done for the weekend. LSUs bullpen is awful so in their case it's the correct move. Other teams could be in different pitching situations and saving him for game two would be the correct move. There is no correct move until after the fact.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Pitching Skenes first game gives them the possibility to bring him back in game 4 or 5 even if it's a relief appearance. If you save him for game two then he's likely done for the weekend. LSUs bullpen is awful so in their case it's the correct move. Other teams could be in different pitching situations and saving him for game two would be the correct move. There is no correct move until after the fact.

He pitched close to 125 pitches today.

 

[skydawg1]

Pitching Skenes first game gives them the possibility to bring him back in game 4 or 5 even if it's a relief appearance. If you save him for game two then he's likely done for the weekend. LSUs bullpen is awful so in their case it's the correct move. Other teams could be in different pitching situations and saving him for game two would be the correct move. There is no correct move until after the fact.

He is done for the weekend.

 

[QuadrupleOption]

This debate started way back when Polk pitched Paul Maholm against some scrub 4 seed in a regional and we then got promptly bounced out of said regional because we lost our second game.

The right call then would have been to save him for game 2 so we only had to pick up one win but hindsight is 20/20. As dawgbite said above, nobody knows until after it's all said and done. If LSU wins their regional then it was the right move. If they don't then people will blame this move on the loss. Just like we did.

 

[Dawgbite]

He is done for the weekend.

I agree, he's done but their entire bullpen is available for the remainder of the weekend. If they had anything in the bullpen that they felt good about then Skenes would've been out by the seventh.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

For any probability needs out there, this is the math that coaches use (or should use) in this scenario. You are trying to maximize your odds of winning the first two games. This is the KEY to the regional....starting 2-0. It gives you the biggest statistical advantage of anything else you can do strategically (e.g. having your ace for an inning or 2 on Monday). So you have to go for broke to make that happen. If you were 50/50 even money to win both games, then your odds of winning BOTH games is .50 x 0.50 = 0.25 (i.e. 25%). For most 1 seeds playing a 4 seed you are probably about an 80% chance of winning if you throw off with your #2 starter and a 90% chance of winning if you go with your ace. And let's take a guess that you are a 60% favorite to beat the 2/3 seed with your #2 pitcher vs. their #2 and a 75% favorite to beat them with your #1 pitcher vs. their #2. In that case, you are a 60% (0.8 x 0.75) favorite to go 2-0 if you throw off and you are 54% (0.9 x .0.6) favorite to go 2-0 if you start your ace in Game 1. So that math say you save your ace for Game 2. Even if you said LSU's odds of winning Game 1 went to 99% by throwing schemes, saving him is still the better strategy with the same other assumptions (60% if you save him, 59% if you throw him Game 1).

I sure am struggling to see the math LSU was using to make their decision. It just feels to me like throwing Skenes in Game 2 increases their odds in that game significantly more than the odds increase you'd get to beat Tulane by throwing him in that game. LSU fans are going to be pissed, and rightfully so, if they lose tomorrow.