Returning Points - 2026

[Wrestleknownothing]

There is only 1 returning point left in the portal (take a bow Evan Bates - Northwestern), so I thought I would put together the returning points graphic.

These are only points returning from the 2025 tournament. Each bar is broken down by where the points were scored in 2025.







With 11 returning scorers for Ohio State, obviously something will have to give.

 

[pabison]

There is only 1 returning point left in the portal (take a bow Evan Bates - Northwestern), so I thought I would put together the returning points graphic.

These are only points returning from the 2025 tournament. Each bar is broken down by where the points were scored in 2025.







With 11 returning scorers for Ohio State, obviously something will have to give.

Do the returning points for PSU include a calculation for Rocco Welsh who finished 2nd his last time at NCAAs?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Do the returning points for PSU include a calculation for Rocco Welsh who finished 2nd his last time at NCAAs?

No, only 2025 points included.

 

[Misalorales]

Thank for the statistics. Have enjoyed your posts for a while before I created an account. Used to do a lot of stat keeping myself when I found free time.. 2027 will be even more incredible for Penn State as barring transfers they'll only lose Levi off of this upcoming team and then swap in Ono for Davis most likely and I imagine find a way to fit Duke in with Levi's graduation. What a roll for Penn State. The new found Ok State fanboys will have to wait til 2028 for a chance at the title.

 

[El_Jefe]

Do the returning points for PSU include a calculation for Rocco Welsh who finished 2nd his last time at NCAAs?

Welsh would add 16.0 pts to PSU.

A few other schools had some 2024 NCAA scorers who shirted in 2025, and therefore not included here. The most significant is probably NC State -- 11.5 pts from Jack and Arrington in 2024.

 

[truth-and-reason]

This should come with a disclaimer similar to investing - Past Performance does not guarantee future outcomes. It makes it more likely.
I don't have the free time to do this myself, but would love to see it.
Every year, this kind of data comes up in the off-season. What is the confidence of this historical data as a predictor. Having followed results very closely from a Penn State perspective; well for other top 20 teams, and being a data-driven geek, my gut says it has strong prediction capability. The truth is in the data set though and doing the analysis.
Within the last 5 or 10 year period, at an individual level and program level, how many of the previous season's points were equal or greater in the next season. Output would be by school and show the percentage of wrestlers who achieved at least same outcome or better and for those that under-achieved compared to the previous year, how much less.
If anyone as the dataset, share it and I will run it through AI to analyze. The time investment is getting the data and organizing it.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

OK, Illinois is fixed. I was only missing Byrd, Luffman, and Ruth. Other than that...

And I went with the wrestlestat lineup for Ohio State.

And even though I hate doing it, I added in some guys returning from redshirt and used their 2024 points: Welsh PSU, Jack NCST, Arrington NCST.

And to make it more legible I cut it off at OKST. Sorry, Minnesota, Penn, Purdue, Wyoming, Stanford, Michigan, and Iowa State.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

This should come with a disclaimer similar to investing - Past Performance does not guarantee future outcomes. It makes it more likely.
I don't have the free time to do this myself, but would love to see it.
Every year, this kind of data comes up in the off-season. What is the confidence of this historical data as a predictor. Having followed results very closely from a Penn State perspective; well for other top 20 teams, and being a data-driven geek, my gut says it has strong prediction capability. The truth is in the data set though and doing the analysis.
Within the last 5 or 10 year period, at an individual level and program level, how many of the previous season's points were equal or greater in the next season. Output would be by school and show the percentage of wrestlers who achieved at least same outcome or better and for those that under-achieved compared to the previous year, how much less.
If anyone as the dataset, share it and I will run it through AI to analyze. The time investment is getting the data and organizing it.

Run it through AI?

For shame.

 

[El_Jefe]

This should come with a disclaimer similar to investing - Past Performance does not guarantee future outcomes. It makes it more likely.
I don't have the free time to do this myself, but would love to see it.
Every year, this kind of data comes up in the off-season. What is the confidence of this historical data as a predictor. Having followed results very closely from a Penn State perspective; well for other top 20 teams, and being a data-driven geek, my gut says it has strong prediction capability. The truth is in the data set though and doing the analysis.
Within the last 5 or 10 year period, at an individual level and program level, how many of the previous season's points were equal or greater in the next season. Output would be by school and show the percentage of wrestlers who achieved at least same outcome or better and for those that under-achieved compared to the previous year, how much less.
If anyone as the dataset, share it and I will run it through AI to analyze. The time investment is getting the data and organizing it.

It would also require someone to only look at the points scored by the returnees -- in PSU's case, don't include any points from Ono, Blaze, or Cole Mirasola since none have previously been D1 starters. For Iowa, don't include Ferrari or Andene. For Ohio State, don't include Davino. Etc.

PSU Wrestling Club has individual points at NCAAs for each of the last several years. It wouldn't be too difficult to dump that into Excel and do pivot tables, would just need to create a couple columns on each page to enable filtering results.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

OK, Illinois is fixed. I was only missing Byrd, Luffman, and Ruth. Other than that...

And I went with the wrestlestat lineup for Ohio State.

And even though I hate doing it, I added in some guys returning from redshirt and used their 2024 points: Welsh PSU, Jack NCST, Arrington NCST.

And to make it more legible I cut it off at OKST. Sorry, Minnesota, Penn, Purdue, Wyoming, Stanford, Michigan, and Iowa State.

Thanks so much for all of your statistical analysis. Seeing the numbers in a bar graph format is very helpful. The cherry on top is your use of school colors. Like Forrest Gump, I'm not a smart man, but I understand bar graphs!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Thanks so much for all of your statistical analysis. Seeing the numbers in a bar graph format is very helpful. The cherry on top is your use of school colors. Like Forrest Gump, I'm not a smart man, but I understand bar graphs!

I like data almost as much as I like a good picture of data.

 

[Tryingtodoitright]

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding this, but it appears that Penn State is in trouble with Only Seven Scoring Wresters.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding this, but it appears that Penn State is in trouble with Only Seven Scoring Wresters.

Lesson 1: Penn State is always in trouble. I learned that on other forums.

But, what that is saying is that Penn State, with Bartlett, Starocci, and Kerkvliet out of eligibility, returns 7 wrestlers from last year who scored 128 points last year.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

I like data almost as much as I like a good picture of data.

[url=https://postimages.org/] [/URL]

 

[El_Jefe]

Lesson 1: Penn State is always in trouble. I learned that on other forums.

But, what that is saying is that Penn State, with Bartlett, Starocci, and Kerkvliet out of eligibility, returns 7 wrestlers from last year who scored 128 points last year.

FYI, he was repeating the standard joke at the expense of the infamous 21Guns.

Guns posted one year -- in his only style, adamantly and repeatedly -- that PSU was doomed because we needed 8 scoring wrestlers to win the title. As was always the case with Guns, there was no evidence to back his claim -- only his insistence. (IIRC we won the title with 7 scorers that year, though I might be misremembering.)

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

FYI, he was repeating the standard joke at the expense of the infamous 21Guns.

Guns posted one year -- in his only style, adamantly and repeatedly -- that PSU was doomed because we needed 8 scoring wrestlers to win the title. As was always the case with Guns, there was no evidence to back his claim -- only his insistence. (IIRC we won the title with 7 scorers that year, though I might be misremembering.)

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I know, I know. I already did this. But now there is more. This time I am including redshirts. For a returning redshirt I used the points (and weight) scored the last time they wrestled.

More data = more fun. So here we go.

Returning AA's

Lets zig a bit before we zag. This one is about career honors rather than last year's points.

• 133 returns the most total AA honors with 15 from 12 wrestlers.
• 197 has the most AA's per wrestler with at least one career AA (1.8).
• 141 has both quality and quantity with 8 wrestlers who have earned an average of 1.75 AA's per.
• No weight has more than one returning champ, but 141 is also home to the only 2 time champ in Ohio State's Jesse Mendez.
• Only 184 and 197 do not have a returning champ.

Note: AA honors may have been earned at a different weight than the 2026 weight listed for the wrestler on wrestlestat.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Pretty Picture Time

Speaking of moving around weights, here are two ways to visualize the movement of returning points between weights.

First a Chord Diagram. The color of the chord represents the previous weight. The destination weights are listed within the colored sections. The numbers around the outside are the point totals (also represented by the width of the chords).

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Next a Sankey Diagram for the more linear in the crowd.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

And finally a table.

• Horizontal change represent consolidation in a weight. For example, 184 gained points from both 174 and 197.
• Vertical change represents dispersion from a weight. For example, 197 gave up points to 174and 285.
• Reading in both directions shows both sides of the coin. For example, 157 gave up 33.5 points to 165, but received 31 from 149.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Top Ten Teams Returning Points

Hopefully this one is not too tough to read. I attempted to capture both transfers and returning redshirts (and the combination of the two) in a single chart. For example, Oklahoma State:

• Has three returning scorers from last year's team (orange),
• And 1 returning from redshirt (black).
• They also picked up an Iowa State transfer who redshirted last year,
• And an Arizona State transfer who did not.

Note: These totals do not reflect any lineup decisions. For example, PSU has 9 returning scorers of varying vintages, but some of them may not start while being replaced by a wrestler with no tournament scoring history.

 

[J.E.B]

Team is slipping from two years ago and the 100pt gap! Now down to 50… but only 8 guys scoring so that could mean an additional 30pts. Insane three yr run!

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Well, if Ok St covers the gap to finish ahead of Ohio State, NC State, and Iowa, then I will be forced to decide whether DT is a great recruiter or great developer of talent.

Only if Ok St tops Nebraska for 2nd would I even begin to consider DT great at recruiting and developing, and perhaps even great coach

 

[Matter7172]

There is only 1 returning point left in the portal (take a bow Evan Bates - Northwestern), so I thought I would put together the returning points graphic.

These are only points returning from the 2025 tournament. Each bar is broken down by where the points were scored in 2025.







With 11 returning scorers for Ohio State, obviously something will have to give.

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding this, but it appears that Penn State is in trouble with Only Seven Scoring Wresters.

We clearly need at least 12 returning scorers to win. Where are we going to get the five?

 

[Misalorales]

Top Ten Teams Returning Points

Hopefully this one is not too tough to read. I attempted to capture both transfers and returning redshirts (and the combination of the two) in a single chart. For example, Oklahoma State:

• Has three returning scorers from last year's team (orange),
• And 1 returning from redshirt (black).
• They also picked up an Iowa State transfer who redshirted last year,
• And an Arizona State transfer who did not.

Note: These totals do not reflect any lineup decisions. For example, PSU has 9 returning scorers of varying vintages, but some of them may not start while being replaced by a wrestler with no tournament scoring history.

Thank you for all of your hard work. Now, a question. Do you have data on how teams have performed versus their returning point production?

 

[Matter7172]

Unless some of the seven returning scorers from PSU improve their performance from 2025, PSU has almost no shot at 200 points unless Blaze/Ono, Welsh and Mirasola can get 72 points between them.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

There is only 1 returning point left in the portal (take a bow Evan Bates - Northwestern), so I thought I would put together the returning points graphic.

These are only points returning from the 2025 tournament. Each bar is broken down by where the points were scored in 2025.







With 11 returning scorers for Ohio State, obviously something will have to give.

They should let all 11 wrestle. It won't change the outcome of the tournament!

 

[1995PSUGrad]

This should come with a disclaimer similar to investing - Past Performance does not guarantee future outcomes. It makes it more likely.
I don't have the free time to do this myself, but would love to see it.
Every year, this kind of data comes up in the off-season. What is the confidence of this historical data as a predictor. Having followed results very closely from a Penn State perspective; well for other top 20 teams, and being a data-driven geek, my gut says it has strong prediction capability. The truth is in the data set though and doing the analysis.
Within the last 5 or 10 year period, at an individual level and program level, how many of the previous season's points were equal or greater in the next season. Output would be by school and show the percentage of wrestlers who achieved at least same outcome or better and for those that under-achieved compared to the previous year, how much less.
If anyone as the dataset, share it and I will run it through AI to analyze. The time investment is getting the data and organizing it.

I understand what you are saying, and I agree that past performance doesn't guarantee future outcomes. However, without looking at the data, I sure seems like PSU wrestlers get better the more time they spend at PSU. I would assume the data would show that. I would assume that's not the case for every (most?) other schools, in terms of points, at least.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Next a Sankey Diagram for the more linear in the crowd.

I understand what you are saying, and I agree that past performance doesn't guarantee future outcomes. However, without looking at the data, I sure seems like PSU wrestlers get better the more time they spend at PSU. I would assume the data would show that. I would assume that's not the case for every (most?) other schools, in terms of points, at least.

A few years ago or so Flo had an article unpacking how teams do at getting their wrestlers to outperform their NCAA seeds, but I don't think they addressed your specific question. The summary was that Penn State as a program has substantially greater success in getting their wrestlers to match (especially as a #1 seed) or exceed their NCAA seeds. This is where I wish we had access to the old board's posts, as I addressed the Flo article on the old board. I perused Flo's older articles but couldn't find the article.

I thought we were supposed to be able to access the historical posts from the old board, or is that still going to occur in the future? It would be nice not to have to re-invent the wheel for topics that were researched and discussed on the old board.

 

[El_Jefe]

Thank you for all of your hard work. Now, a question. Do you have data on how teams have performed versus their returning point production?

I don't have data, but generally the better teams should outperform that simply because they will have new guys in the lineup who will score something at nationals.

That would include reducing Returning Points for someone who shirts -- i.e., Ohio State no longer returned Welsh's points last year when they chose to tanshirt him.

The biggest exception would be for injuries. Offhand, Iowa last year probably didn't meet that metric when Teemer and Parco -- a returning national finalist and a 4x AA -- combined to go 1-4 at nationals with both obviously injured.

 

[El_Jefe]

Unless some of the seven returning scorers from PSU improve their performance from 2025, PSU has almost no shot at 200 points unless Blaze/Ono, Welsh and Mirasola can get 72 points between them.

Lilledahl and Levi should go from 3rd to 1st. That's an extra 6 pts each --> +12.

Kasak too, if he starts --> +6. (If Duke starts, we'll see.)

Van Ness could win, but at a minimum should make the finals. Let's be conservative (since Henson is a returning champ), and call that +2.

Welsh returns 16 pts from his last year of competition.

--> +36 pts. Halfway there, not counting Blaze, Ono, or Mirasola; and not counting Van Ness or Welsh winning the title.

EDIT: also not including +4 pts if Barr wins 197. He and Elam will be preseason favorites to reach the finals.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Thank you for all of your hard work. Now, a question. Do you have data on how teams have performed versus their returning point production?

Stay tuned.

 

[Shifty15]

Perhaps I’m misunderstanding this, but it appears that Penn State is in trouble with Only Seven Scoring Wresters.

But tOSU is way ahead of the game with 11.

 

[Shifty15]

Pretty Picture Time

Speaking of moving around weights, here are two ways to visualize the movement of returning points between weights.

First a Chord Diagram. The color of the chord represents the previous weight. The destination weights are listed within the colored sections. The numbers around the outside are the point totals (also represented by the width of the chords).

Are you sure this isn’t the original drawing when the hubcap was invented?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Are you sure this isn’t the original drawing when the hubcap was invented?

Good question. I am not sure.

 

[Tryingtodoitright]

Are you sure this isn’t the original drawing when the hubcap was invented?

I thought there was going to be no math and now we’re getting chord diagrams. If this keeps up I’m going back home to HR.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

A few years ago or so Flo had an article unpacking how teams do at getting their wrestlers to outperform their NCAA seeds, but I don't think they addressed your specific question. The summary was that Penn State as a program has substantially greater success in getting their wrestlers to match (especially as a #1 seed) or exceed their NCAA seeds. This is where I wish we had access to the old board's posts, as I addressed the Flo article on the old board. I perused Flo's older articles but couldn't find the article.

I thought we were supposed to be able to access the historical posts from the old board, or is that still going to occur in the future? It would be nice not to have to re-invent the wheel for topics that were researched and discussed on the old board.

During the Sanderson era (2010-2025) PSU has outperformed their seed by an average of 0.2 spots, which is remarkable given how high the seeds were (6.9 average). That puts Penn State behind seven other teams during that time. But again, all of the seven other teams had double digit average seeds.

The next closest starting position is Iowa with an average seed of 8.5, but with an average finish of 9.2 that puts them at an average of 0.7 spots lower in their finishes.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Some caveats.

Unseeded wrestlers are given credit for being seeded at the mid-point of the range.

Finishes outside of AA are also credited for the mid-point of the range where they finished.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Removing unseeded wrestlers shaves a lot off of everyone's numbers.

 

[Goggles Paisano]

But tOSU is way ahead of the game with 11.

It's a long established fact. tOSU needs 'at least' 11 scoring wrestlers at Nationals to win.