RPI sitting at 26

[615dawg]

A win over Ole Miss puts us at 23rd and a loss would drop us to 30th.

Man, a win headed into a winnable series against a team ranked ahead of us would be huge. I am normally not a fan of this game, but we need to win it.

 

[57stratdawg]

MSU should be in front of some friendly crowds all week.

3-1 would be big.

 

[Howiefeltersnstch]

It goes without saying that we need to win it. It's OM. Plus we need to win every game we can the rest of the season. Not much room for error if we want to host.

 

[615dawg]

It goes without saying that we need to win it. It's OM. Plus we need to win every game we can the rest of the season. Not much room for error if we want to host.

I still don't see the path to hosting, but I'm on board with the movement.

Beat Ole Miss and go 2-1 against Alabama and you are sitting at 20th.
Find a way to go 1-2 against Arkansas and you enter the last weekend 19th.
North Alabama and Missouri aren't going to get you much, but could move up with some teams in front of us losing.

I think to host we need to finish 5th in the SEC with +2 games on Georgia. That will probably take 18-12 to get there.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

The path to hosting is very clear to me. 3-1 vs Ole Miss and Bama. Winning 2 of 3 in Fayetteville. And then 4-0 vs North Alabama and Missouri. The RPI hit we will take from our last 4 games, barring a rainout vs North Alabama is only going to be made up by winning 2 of 3 on the road vs Arkansas. It is what it is.

 

[8dog]

I still don't see the path to hosting, but I'm on board with the movement.

Beat Ole Miss and go 2-1 against Alabama and you are sitting at 20th.
Find a way to go 1-2 against Arkansas and you enter the last weekend 19th.
North Alabama and Missouri aren't going to get you much, but could move up with some teams in front of us losing.

I think to host we need to finish 5th in the SEC with +2 games on Georgia. That will probably take 18-12 to get there.

I think we have to win all 4 of NA and Mizzou to keep status quo. The NA game likely drops us with a win.

 

[HuntDawg]

I think we have to win all 4 of NA and Mizzou to keep status quo. The NA game likely drops us with a win.

the mizzou and una week will drop our RPI even if we go 4-0.

 

[HuntDawg]

We also have to keep in mind Hoover matters. I know people say it doesnt, but it does in terms of hosting. If we can win games in hoover, our RPI will keep ticking upward.

There is a path to hosting however these are the musts IMO:
1. Win Bama series
2. Dont get swept at Arkansas
3. Sweep Mizzou
4. Win at least 1, probably 2 games in Hoover

That will keep us a shot to over come our awful OOC schedule.

 

[615dawg]

Right now we are the #5 seed in the SEC Tournament. We are 3 games back of the 3/4 seed and 4 games back of the 1/2 seed.

We are likely going to have to play that single elimination round against one of the lower seeds (currently Ole Miss).

 

[HuntDawg]

Right now we are the #5 seed in the SEC Tournament. We are 3 games back of the 3/4 seed and 4 games back of the 1/2 seed.

We are likely going to have to play that single elimination round against one of the lower seeds (currently Ole Miss).

too early for all that. We were a 8 seed last week.

One good week or one bad week from anyone will jumbling the standings. Regardless of where we stand in Hoover or who we play. We will need to win a game or 2 to boost our resume.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

too early for all that. We were a 8 seed last week.

One good week or one bad week from anyone will jumbling the standings. Regardless of where we stand in Hoover or who we play. We will need to win a game or 2 to boost our resume.

It helps that we have the tiebreaker over both Vandy and Georgia who aren’t far behind us. TBD on a potential tiebreaker with South Carolina since we don’t play them.

Regardless of where exactly we land, it likely won’t be in the Top 4, so we’ll have a single elimination game on that Tuesday that we probably will need to win for hosting purposes. But I also think we need to finish with at least 17 SEC wins to have a chance, possibly 18.

 

[8dog]

We also have to keep in mind Hoover matters. I know people say it doesnt, but it does in terms of hosting. If we can win games in hoover, our RPI will keep ticking upward.

There is a path to hosting however these are the musts IMO:
1. Win Bama series
2. Dont get swept at Arkansas
3. Sweep Mizzou
4. Win at least 1, probably 2 games in Hoover

That will keep us a shot to over come our awful OOC schedule.

It definitely matters. The problem is you can do well and you still probably lose two games. So you have to do really really well.

 

[HuntDawg]

It helps that we have the tiebreaker over both Vandy and Georgia who aren’t far behind us. TBD on a potential tiebreaker with South Carolina since we don’t play them.

Regardless of where exactly we land, it likely won’t be in the Top 4, so we’ll have a single elimination game on that Tuesday that we probably will need to win for hosting purposes. But I also think we need to finish with at least 17 SEC wins to have a chance, possibly 18.

i dont think the seeding matters. Committee has shown that where you finish in standings doesnt matter that much if at all. We need SEC wins and we need RPI building wins. Winning in hoover, regardless of where we are seeded will be key.

We could play well down the stretch and go 5-4. Finish 17-13, and that could still land us a 6-7 seed in the tournament. Way too early to play the what if game seeding wise.

 

[Howiefeltersnstch]

Bottom line if we are gonna make it to a host position we have to go on a massive winning streak. Losing more than one against Arkansas probly puts in a bad spot.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

A win over Ole Miss puts us at 23rd and a loss would drop us to 30th.

Might wanna jiggle the flux capacitor in your RPI generator

 

[dawgstudent]

Might wanna jiggle the flux capacitor in your RPI generator

It was only running at 1.14 gigawatts due to new EPA guidelines.

 

[MStateU]

I still don't see the path to hosting, but I'm on board with the movement.

Beat Ole Miss and go 2-1 against Alabama and you are sitting at 20th.
Find a way to go 1-2 against Arkansas and you enter the last weekend 19th.
North Alabama and Missouri aren't going to get you much, but could move up with some teams in front of us losing.

I think to host we need to finish 5th in the SEC with +2 games on Georgia. That will probably take 18-12 to get there.

Just curious. It appears you are using some method of future RPI predictor. What is it showing if we were to win the North Alabama game today? 24 to???? Or if you cant do that, what is it showing once we win it vs right before playing it? I'm just wondering how big of a hit playing that game is.

 

[615dawg]

Might wanna jiggle the flux capacitor in your RPI generator

Yep, we got to 23rd for a few minutes then dropped to 24th.

We will likely drop to 25th tonight if Tennessee beats Florida. We'll stay 24th if Florida beats Tennessee.

Big opportunity this weekend. Climbing as high as 17 is in play with a sweep. 19 with a series win.

 

[615dawg]

Just curious. It appears you are using some method of future RPI predictor. What is it showing if we were to win the North Alabama game today? 24 to???? Or if you cant do that, what is it showing once we win it vs right before playing it? I'm just wondering how big of a hit playing that game is.

If we played the UNA game today and won it, we'd drop four spots.

I basically reverse engineered Warren Nolan's system.

Take a look at this: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/team-impact?team=Mississippi-State

On the left you see the RPI ladder, on the right you see impact games. A Florida win over Tennessee tonight is worth +3.5 RPI points, which doesn't move us, it just separates us a little from Oklahoma State (which is just 4 thousandths of a point behind us).

We are 117 RPI points behind No. 16 Dallas Baptist. His system doesn't show this (it will update day of game), but based on it, every win over Alabama should be worth about 24-27 points. It would be hard to catch DBU this weekend if they hold serve, but they are playing Jacksonville State, which wins would lose about 10-12 points each.

A better example is Florida at 18. Wins over Tennessee are worth 38 points and losses are worth 22 points. So a sweep of Tennessee and they could climb as high as 14, but if they were to lose all three, they could drop as low as 27.

 

[MStateU]

If we played the UNA game today and won it, we'd drop four spots.

I basically reverse engineered Warren Nolan's system.

Take a look at this: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/team-impact?team=Mississippi-State

On the left you see the RPI ladder, on the right you see impact games. A Florida win over Tennessee tonight is worth +3.5 RPI points, which doesn't move us, it just separates us a little from Oklahoma State (which is just 4 thousandths of a point behind us).

We are 117 RPI points behind No. 16 Dallas Baptist. His system doesn't show this (it will update day of game), but based on it, every win over Alabama should be worth about 24-27 points. It would be hard to catch DBU this weekend if they hold serve, but they are playing Jacksonville State, which wins would lose about 10-12 points each.

A better example is Florida at 18. Wins over Tennessee are worth 38 points and losses are worth 22 points. So a sweep of Tennessee and they could climb as high as 14, but if they were to lose all three, they could drop as low as 27.

Thanks. Good stuff.