Schedule reminder
- Thread starter DawgatAuburn
- Start date
We still have as many games left against the teams above that red line (5) then we do against teams below that red line (5).
favored in 7 of last 9?
Will be underdogs @ Bama, @ Auburn, vs Kentucky. Will likely be underdogs unless Texas AM falls apart @ Texas AM, and the line will be very close depending how LSU continues to play @ LSU... and the south carolina game at home will be a pick em at best right now.
LSU beat Ole Miss at home, Texas AM beat Kentucky at home. Odds makers will start to make note of our 0 road wins.
We'll be dogs in at least 4 game out of the last 10. And be very close to a pick em in 2 others.
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Well Bama isn’t in the last 9 and you’re way off on South Carolina. -1/1.5 @ LSU/vs UK is still a favorite. 7 of last 9.
The oddsmakers you reference are not as susceptible to wild swings in emotions as fans and can understand that we have had a brutal conference schedule to this point.
huh?
Mississippi State is currently projected to finish 19.5-11.5
The oddsmakers can also tell that we've yet to win a true road game and will adjust lines accordingly
@ Auburn will be a underdog, likely 7-10 point
vs Kentucky- Kentucky will be a favorite, likely 1-2 points. They were 6 point favorites at South Carolina.
@ TxAM- texas AM will be a favorite, likely 2-4 points, if not more. TexasAM was favored against Kentucky. Its a no brainer they'll be favored against us
How LSU fares in there next 4-5 games will depend the line in that game. They were favored at home against Ole Miss. Why would we be favored there?
South Carolina going to Tenn and winning and beating Kentucky is a huge feather in their hats. We'll see how the odds makers view them now after theyve done this.
Last 9 games. We will be no doubt underdogs in 3 of those. Could be 4 or 5.
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We will be favored against Kentucky unless we lose to anyone but Bama before them.
I doubt we're favored in either of those 2 you mention. But even if we are, it's close to a tossup whether the line is + or - 1/1.5. Bottom line is we're leaving ourselves with very little margin for error the rest of the season with the 3-5 start. For what it's worth, Warren Nolan predicts us to finish 6-4, for a 9-9 league record.
Lot of what ifs. If you are chalking up us going 6-1 during that stretch.. if kentucky runs the table during that same stretch. They are the favorites in that game.
They'll be favorties anyway. The kentucky brand carries a lot of weight, 2-3 points on name alone in vegas. Unless Kentucky totally falls apart. They'll be slight favorites in Starkville.
If Kentucky runs the table.. goes 8-0, or 7-1 over their next 8 games-- they'll be ranked inside the top 5. Not saying that'll happen, but we cant just chalk up wins for us, and chalk up a mixed bag for them. To get a desired line.
Agree 6-4 is what we need to finish. And to me. That record puts us squarely on the bubble. but probably on the right side of it.
Need to go 4-0 in that stretch between Bama and @ LSU. Thats basically the season.
5-0 in that stretch. And yeah, that's the season. That's 5 of the 6 wins Nolan predicts, but 4 of them are predicted by 5 points or less.
I take LSU out of it. They are a bit of a wild card right now..
BUT:
Home to UGA-- I think is a quad 2 game
At Mizzou- I think is a quad 2 game, borderline quad 3 game
Home to Ark- is a quad 3 game
Home to Ole Miss- is a quad 2 game
Not only does losing 1 of those 4, kill our record, it'll be a big hit to our NET rankings as well.
Must win games.
Oh I think we are in easily if we finish 6-4. And very well might be at 5-5, though it could come down to conference tourneys.
6-4, puts us 20-11, 9-9
5-5 puts us 19-12, 8-10
I think 6-4 puts us in, dependant on how some other teams do. 5-5, i dont think we get in, unless we win some conference tourney games, and almost certainly out if we go 1 and done in the sec tournament
IF 5-5, it means---- The below 500 conference record, the bad road record, the awful quad 4 loss, combined with the fact that our SOS will drop as the season progresses... We will be very much on the bubble and probably on the wrong side of it.
predictions have us between 8.5 and 9.5 conference wins.. With the way this team has played so far, I dont know why anyone would think 10 is more likely than 8.
There are 4 games that are must wins.
@ LSU, @ TxAM, @ Auburn, @ Bama vs Missouri and Kentucky--- to get to 10 wins, we have to win all 4 must wins PLUS 3 of these. Considering we havent won a road game all season, thats a big ask.
Problem with 5-5 is, it definitely puts us in a position of having to play our way in in the SEC tournament. But our conference seeding probably puts us in the 2nd round against a lower seeded team that can't help us even if we win, but would kill us if we lost, and then a game vs one of the top 4 seeds coming off the double bye. So, we'd need to pull off a pretty big upset on 0 days rest against a team with 5 days rest.
You’re putting too much stock into conference records. West Virginia was 7-11 in the Big 12 last year and got in as a 9 seed. Not even on the bubble.
We got in at 8-10 last year with a worse resume than we’d have this year, and the SEC was weaker too.
We aren’t even that close to the bubble at the moment. That can change with a bad loss somewhere, but we are very much in 8 or 9 seed territory right now. Pretty much just win the games we’re favored in the rest of the way and we are likely fine.
Fair Points. I think 6 wins has to happen, that even makes 5 looks more bleek than i thought.
We've reached our peak in terms of metrics as we are about to play a slew of quad 2 and quad 3 games. We have to start tallying up wins.
Eh we still have four and possibly five Q1 games left. The schedule does get easier briefly but it picks up again at the end.
Perhaps so. But WVU was also 25 in net rankings. We wont be that high if we are 8-10. And the big 12 was the highest rated conference as well.
Last year we were in the play in game. Very much bubble. 5 wins this year is going to put is in a simialr spot. Back on that bubble. Because our metrics likely wont be any better than they were then. Maybe slightly better, depending on who wins and loses down the stretch
Currently:
UGA is Quad 3 Game
Mizzou Quad 2
Arkansas Quad 3
Ole Miss Quad 2
Our metrics are about to drop, and will crater if we lose one of those quad 3 games
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Our resume this year, if we hold serve in games we will be favored in, is just better than what we did last year. Better nonconference SOS, overall SOS should be better, better high end wins, etc.
8-10 in 2024 > 8-10 in 2023
It'll be in the general area I agree. Should be slightly better. Really it will not only come down to who we win and lose too, but also how some other teams do down the stretch.
But I think we were fortunate to get in the last 4 last season AND i think we beat FLA in the SEC tournament that was basically a win and get in game. Not only that getting to play Bama and losing to them also helped our metrics because Bama was #1 in virtually all rankings metrics and rankings last season.... going into the sec tournament I think we were OUT and not IN.
If we are 8-10 and lose that round 1 game... we could very well be on the other side.
End of day I realize we are splitting hairs. 9 sec wins and 20 overall wins has us in a much better position. We may very well get in with 8, but I could see us getting left out as well.
We did benefit from a soft bubble and literally zero stolen bids last year, I’ll concede that.
Still believe we are in a stronger position this year for the time being. And now we play a bunch of home games in February and also some extremely winnable road games.
Does anybody know offhand how many quad 1 wins we ended up with last year? My impression is our nonconference wins are significantly more impressive this year but I don't know if that's true or not.
4-8 in 2023
3-5 this year with 4 remaining. Northwestern at 55 in NET currently. Northwestern was a great win in hindsight, but they have a horrendous Chicago St loss haunting their resume. That win should get bumped to a Q1; they are playing great.
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Currently 3-5 in quad 1
2-1 in quad 2
Washington State win could move to a quad 2, Northwestern could move to a quad 1
G-Tech could move to a quad 3, North Texas could move to a quad 2.
Current games left as is:
Quad 1: @ Alabama, vs Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas AM
Quad 2: Ole Miss, @ LSU, vs South Carolina, @ Mizzou (barely, will prob end up a quad 3)
Quad 3: Georgia, Arkansas,
Last season we were 4-8 or 3-9 depending what metrics you were using. But we didnt have the glaring quad 4 loss either
2-1 in quad 2
Washington State win could move to a quad 2, Northwestern could move to a quad 1
G-Tech could move to a quad 3, North Texas could move to a quad 2.
Current games left as is:
Quad 1: @ Alabama, vs Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas AM
Quad 2: Ole Miss, @ LSU, vs South Carolina, @ Mizzou (barely, will prob end up a quad 3)
Quad 3: Georgia, Arkansas,
Last season we were 4-8 or 3-9 depending what metrics you were using. But we didnt have the glaring quad 4 loss either
Not a single person predicted 13-5 in the thread with that very topic.
11-2 in OOC - On3
What’s your guess for the conference schedule? I'm going 11-7 which makes us 22-9
Smack to forehead, that was when I was straddling subscriptions here and 247 but there were scolding optimists all over that threadNot a single person predicted 13-5 in the thread with that very topic.
11-2 in OOC - On3
What’s your guess for the conference schedule? I'm going 11-7 which makes us 22-9www.on3.com
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