SEC Now last night said.......

[AstroDog]

that Joe Lunardi had us as one of the last 4 in. I was surprised at that. Thought we still had a lot of work to do. And of course we do. We have to play 3 of the hottest 4 teams in the SEC down the stretch. Two of them on the road. And even SC is playing pretty well. Feels like to me we need to win 3 of the last 4 and then win a couple in the SEC tourney to be sure. They also said this is with a record 8 SEC teams making the dance.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

We aren't winning 3 of those

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I wouldn’t call Mizzou one of the hottest teams in the league, they lost twice in pretty convincing fashion this week, including once at home. I actually like how we match up with them and right now I think we win that game on Tuesday.

A&M and Vandy are absolutely red hot and both will be extremely tough games.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I feel like our tournament chances every year are like our games with Kentucky. Close but no cigar. Rinse and repeat

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

You want to be in the second 4 in before all of the conference tournaments begin. We were one or two more players from being a really good team this season. Hopefully Selmon can put a charge in our NIL fundraising to recover from Cohen’s catastrophe.

 

[msudawg1200]

If we stay as one of the Last Four In we aren't making it. There will be at least 2-3, maybe 4 "bid stealers" when some 15-14 team wins a conference tourney they shouldn't have and gives that conference an extra bid. That'd bump us out. We need to win 3 of the last 4 and one in the SEC Tourney to be "safely" in heading into Selection Sunday. Otherwise, it's a crap shoot hoping for no conference tourney upsets.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

I think we can win all three. I've got more faith in Jans than any coach on campus.

 

[She Mate Me]

We've absolutely got to win 3 of the last 4. I still think that gets us in, and I still think it is pretty unlikely.

Showing up and spanking a beatable Mizzou team would change that attitude some. I feel strongly that game is an absolute must win, just like yesterday was.

 

[Drebin]

that Joe Lunardi had us as one of the last 4 in. I was surprised at that. Thought we still had a lot of work to do. And of course we do. We have to play 3 of the hottest 4 teams in the SEC down the stretch. Two of them on the road. And even SC is playing pretty well. Feels like to me we need to win 3 of the last 4 and then win a couple in the SEC tourney to be sure. They also said this is with a record 8 SEC teams making the dance.

I love Jans and I love the way this team plays defense. But we can't afford another loss. It is what it is.

 

[patdog]

If we stay as one of the Last Four In we aren't making it. There will be at least 2-3, maybe 4 "bid stealers" when some 15-14 team wins a conference tourney they shouldn't have and gives that conference an extra bid. That'd bump us out. We need to win 3 of the last 4 and one in the SEC Tourney to be "safely" in heading into Selection Sunday. Otherwise, it's a crap shoot hoping for no conference tourney upsets.

How many bids actually get stolen though. It seems like as often as not, if a surprise team wins a conference tournament, they just bump the last team from that conference out.

 

[AstroDog]

Stackhouse has saved his job this year with the way Vandy has improved. He starts getting good players to come there, they will turn into a powerhouse quickly. Even when the Dores were really bad, it was still hard to get a win there.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

How many bids actually get stolen though. It seems like as often as not, if a surprise team wins a conference tournament, they just bump the last team from that conference out.

It fluctuates from year to year. You want teams that are supposed to make the tournament by merit winning the auto bids.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I love Jans and I love the way this team plays defense. But we can't afford another loss. It is what it is.

21-10 with 2 quad 1 wins out of conference will get us in most likely. 3-1 finish gets us in. We needed 4-2 after the Arkansas win, and nothing has really changed since then.

 

[She Mate Me]

21-10 with 2 quad 1 wins out of conference will get us in most likely. 3-1 finish gets us in. We needed 4-2 after the Arkansas win, and nothing has really changed since then.

Yeah, nothing has changed since many here said we needed 6 of the last 8.

We've done half of that on schedule, even with the bumpy road

 

[RockyDog]

How many bids actually get stolen though. It seems like as often as not, if a surprise team wins a conference tournament, they just bump the last team from that conference out.

One of the bracket gurus last week said that the mid majors are as weak as they have been in over a decade so you won’t see near as many in the tourney as years past. We just need other Big 10, ACC, PAC 12 teams to play themselves off the bubble.

we didn’t do ourselves any favors losing at home. We basically gave our spot to Kentucky and now have to play in over someone else.

 

[Drebin]

21-10 with 2 quad 1 wins out of conference will get us in most likely. 3-1 finish gets us in. We needed 4-2 after the Arkansas win, and nothing has really changed since then.

You can't just go by that. There are other factors. We can't afford any losses if the selection committee sees us where Lunardi sees us. Our threshold isn't "get to 21-10 with 2 quad 1 OOC wins." There are others we're competing with who have similar resumes. And as long as we're in that "last four in" conversation, we can always be bumped by conference tourney upsets.

You gotta win out to make it a no brainer. That's why I say we can't afford another loss. Unfortunately I think we'll have at least one.

 

[Perd Hapley]

You can't just go by that. There are other factors. We can't afford any losses if the selection committee sees us where Lunardi sees us. Our threshold isn't "get to 21-10 with 2 quad 1 OOC wins." There are others we're competing with who have similar resumes. And as long as we're in that "last four in" conversation, we can always be bumped by conference tourney upsets.

You gotta win out to make it a no brainer. That's why I say we can't afford another loss. Unfortunately I think we'll have at least one.

I guess your definition of “can’t afford” is different from mine. I would say we can’t afford two more losses, because that puts us in the “must win the SEC tournament” category. There’s a better than 50% chance we get in with a 3-1 finish, and I don’t at all think we’d still be “Last Four In” with that finish. Remember that it would guarantee us another Quad 1 win also. Is it 100%? No, but that possibility pretty much went out the window with the 1-7 SEC start.

 

[BonzoGoesToCollege]

The Georgia and Florida losses were killers.

 

[She Mate Me]

The Georgia and Florida losses were killers.

I can take the road loss to an inferior team, but the home loss to an inferior team was an absolute killer. If we miss the tourney, that Florida game is the game that will be the most disappointing.

 

[BonzoGoesToCollege]

I can take the road loss to an inferior team, but the home loss to an inferior team was an absolute killer. If we miss the tourney, that Florida game is the game that will be the most disappointing.

Georgia will end up being a Q3 loss.

 

[She Mate Me]

Georgia will end up being a Q3 loss.

It may. Their really low ranking doesn't make much sense to me.

They're 6-8 in the SEC, just like us. 14-2 at home and terrible on the road. Strange team.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

We aren't winning 3 of those

I didn't think we would beat Ole Miss at home for several reasons but Jans and the guys did it in spite of what I thought. I think I will wait and see for the rest.

The next game is always the hardest but it really is @ Mizzu. aTm is playing excellent ball right now. We have never played well @ Vandy

 

[msudawg1200]

How many bids actually get stolen though. It seems like as often as not, if a surprise team wins a conference tournament, they just bump the last team from that conference out.

Not really. At least 2-3 happen a year. The teams that get bumped are the ones that are in the "Last 4 In" category.

 

[lazlow]

that Joe Lunardi had us as one of the last 4 in. I was surprised at that. Thought we still had a lot of work to do. And of course we do. We have to play 3 of the hottest 4 teams in the SEC down the stretch. Two of them on the road. And even SC is playing pretty well. Feels like to me we need to win 3 of the last 4 and then win a couple in the SEC tourney to be sure. They also said this is with a record 8 SEC teams making the dance.

The 3/4 game in memorial will make the UPIG and UK games look well officiated.

 

[Duggar Hall Desk]

One of the bracket gurus last week said that the mid majors are as weak as they have been in over a decade so you won’t see near as many in the tourney as years past. We just need other Big 10, ACC, PAC 12 teams to play themselves off the bubble.

we didn’t do ourselves any favors losing at home. We basically gave our spot to Kentucky and now have to play in over someone else.

UNC and Clemson helped us out in that regard.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

At this point, I wouldn't worry about it until we are finished in the SEC tournament, unless we just go on a tear which I kind of doubt we will. We are right on the edge so if you chase the bubble every day, you might drive yourself crazy trying to keep up with who says where they think we are and whether we are in or out. Just wait till Conference Championship Sunday and get ready to probably be one of the ones who was close, but no cigar since the NCAA had two or three unexpected spots given to unexpected teams who won their conference tournament

 

[GloryDawg]

I don't think it's just wins or loses. It could be what teams we have beaten are doing and teams we are up against in getting in are doing. Does anyone here really know what the committed is looking at. Are any of you experts? I don't worry about it. I can't control what happens. That's is how I have kept my insanity being a state fan.

 

[She Mate Me]

It remains pretty simple.

Go 3-1 and I think we're 80%+ to make the tourney.

Go 2-2 and that chance drops precipitously.

Don't wear yourself out analyzing it.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

It remains pretty simple.

Go 3-1 and I think we're 80%+ to make the tourney.

Go 2-2 and that chance drops precipitously.

Don't wear yourself out analyzing it.

Probably the correct take. Win tonight and we still need to win 2 of the last 3. Lose tonight and we may have to win out.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

Unless the rules have changed, the only time a team that hasn't earned a bid during the regular season sneaks in via conference tourney hurts STATE is whether or not that conference also had another member that had already wrapped up a bid prior its tourney but happened not to win it which sends 2 teams instead of 1. And don't Net Ranking calculations include teams' Quad Records? I mean we're 43 now which does indeed have us walking a tight rope at present. When Lunardi says "STATE's Last 4 In", doesn't that mean he thinks we'll do what's needed to remain in the low 40's which would be sufficient to get an invite? Based on what my gut feeling odds are saying at the moment, tonight's game has switched to a Must Win.

 

[She Mate Me]

Unless the rules have changed, the only time a team that hasn't earned a bid during the regular season sneaks in via conference tourney hurts STATE is whether or not that conference also had another member that had already wrapped up a bid prior its tourney but happened not to win it which sends 2 teams instead of 1. And don't Net Ranking calculations include teams' Quad Records? I mean we're 43 now which does indeed have us walking a tight rope at present. When Lunardi says "STATE's Last 4 In", doesn't that mean he thinks we'll do what's needed to remain in the low 40's which would be sufficient to get an invite? Based on what my gut feeling odds are saying at the moment, tonight's game has switched to a Must Win.

I don't think any of the remaining games are must wins until we lose one. Then all remaining games become must wins.

Tonight is actually probably on paper the most difficult game, as it's on the road against a solid team. A more solid team than the other road game vs. Vandy (who, yes, is hot, but so are we kinda).

 

[Cantdoitsal]

I don't think any of the remaining games are must wins until we lose one. Then all remaining games become must wins.

Tonight is actually probably on paper the most difficult game, as it's on the road against a solid team. A more solid team than the other road game vs. Vandy (who, yes, is hot, but so are we kinda).

Well Said on none become "must" till we lose one. I'm just thinkin' we may have a better chance tonight than A&M and @ Vandy.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I don't think any of the remaining games are must wins until we lose one. Then all remaining games become must wins.

Tonight is actually probably on paper the most difficult game, as it's on the road against a solid team. A more solid team than the other road game vs. Vandy (who, yes, is hot, but so are we kinda).

Vandy is sort of hot but their 5 game streak is:
1 Ole Miss
2 a home buzzer beater win that their rival gift wrapped to them
3 at fading Florida (with Castleton)
4 South Carolina
5 Auburn who is terrible away from Neville Arena

Credit to them for winning all of them but if you are trying to be on a streak, that's a pretty good selection of teams to do it against.