Certainly it's more fun to talk about the bubble and seeding and KenPom and such, but the SEC Tournament is also looming in our future. Still lots to settle as far as seeding goes.
The easy ones:
Bama will be either 1 or 2. Almost certainly will be the 1. Just need to beat either Auburn or A&M this week or have A&M lose to Ole Miss.
Aggies will almost assuredly be the 2 seed. To be the 1 they have to win out while Bama loses out. To be the 3 they have to lose out while Kentucky wins out and takes the 2 spot.
On the other end of the spectrum, South Carolina, Ole Miss and LSU will be 12, 13 and 14 in some order. LSU is almost certain to be 14th. They lose tiebreakers with both South Carolina and Ole Miss and also lose a three way tie. Their only hope to move up is to win out while either USC or Ole Miss lose out. If South Carolina and Ole Miss end up tied, South Carolina wins the tiebreaker. The only impact there would be who wears white and who wears dark when they play in Nashville next Wednesday. Most likely this will be USC 12, Ole Miss 13 and LSU 14.
Then there is the murky middle.
Kentucky is almost certain to be the 3. Could be the 2 (see above). One win in their last two wraps up at least the 3. If they lose twice this week though, they drop to 11-7 and put themselves in a position to be passed by Tennessee. UK wins a tiebreaker with UT. Dropping two this week also opens them up to being tied with Missouri, Vandy and Auburn. They lost to Mizzou but beat Vandy and Auburn. Unlikely to happen. Kats are in great shape for a double bye.
Tennessee has work to do to earn a double bye. They host Arkansas and go to Auburn. If they split this week and finish 11-7, Missouri, Vandy, Auburn could also get to 11-7. Then it's tiebreaker time for two, three or four teams. If UT loses both games this week and those other teams split, they would all be 10-8. Arkansas could conceivably get to 10-8 and claim that 4 seed. Back to UT, I think they could finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th.
The three 9-7 teams (Missouri, Vandy and Auburn) could finish anywhere from 3rd to 10th. Missouri has LSU and Ole Miss this week. Vandy has Kentucky and us. Auburn has (gulp) Bama and Tennessee.
Arkansas is 8-8 and could climb as high as 4th but could fall as far as 10th. I think even if they lose their two games this week (at Tennessee, Kentucky at home), they would win tiebreakers to keep them out of 11th.
Florida and State could theoretically be 9-9 and work their way into a tie for fifth. Obviously we lose H2H tiebreakers with Auburn and Florida, but we would win a couple of them with Vandy and Arkansas if they get to 9-9. We would also win a two team tie with Missouri based off our win over A&M. The three and four way ties in this range are too numerous to count. We could also have a disaster of a week and end up 11th. Same for Florida if they lose twice this week (at UGA, host LSU) and we win at least one.
UGA could work themselves up to the 9th seed this week with a win or two and possibly some help. Worst case for them is 11th.
Personally I would like to get the 11 seed out of play as soon as possible. If we win tonight and Florida beats Georgia, then Georgia is locked in at 11. If we win tonight and UGA beats Florida, then we head into the weekend needing a win to ensure staying ahead of them. We of course are at Vandy. They will be at USC. If they win twice this week and we split our two, then we are likely to be the 11 seed.
We would lose a H2H tiebreaker to UGA at 8-10.
We would lose a three team tiebreaker with Georgia and Florida at 8-10.
We would lose a four team tiebreaker with Georgia, Florida and Arkansas at 8-10.
We would WIN a three team tiebreaker with Georgia and Arkansas at 8-10.
Got all that? There will be a quiz later today.
The easy ones:
Bama will be either 1 or 2. Almost certainly will be the 1. Just need to beat either Auburn or A&M this week or have A&M lose to Ole Miss.
Aggies will almost assuredly be the 2 seed. To be the 1 they have to win out while Bama loses out. To be the 3 they have to lose out while Kentucky wins out and takes the 2 spot.
On the other end of the spectrum, South Carolina, Ole Miss and LSU will be 12, 13 and 14 in some order. LSU is almost certain to be 14th. They lose tiebreakers with both South Carolina and Ole Miss and also lose a three way tie. Their only hope to move up is to win out while either USC or Ole Miss lose out. If South Carolina and Ole Miss end up tied, South Carolina wins the tiebreaker. The only impact there would be who wears white and who wears dark when they play in Nashville next Wednesday. Most likely this will be USC 12, Ole Miss 13 and LSU 14.
Then there is the murky middle.
Kentucky is almost certain to be the 3. Could be the 2 (see above). One win in their last two wraps up at least the 3. If they lose twice this week though, they drop to 11-7 and put themselves in a position to be passed by Tennessee. UK wins a tiebreaker with UT. Dropping two this week also opens them up to being tied with Missouri, Vandy and Auburn. They lost to Mizzou but beat Vandy and Auburn. Unlikely to happen. Kats are in great shape for a double bye.
Tennessee has work to do to earn a double bye. They host Arkansas and go to Auburn. If they split this week and finish 11-7, Missouri, Vandy, Auburn could also get to 11-7. Then it's tiebreaker time for two, three or four teams. If UT loses both games this week and those other teams split, they would all be 10-8. Arkansas could conceivably get to 10-8 and claim that 4 seed. Back to UT, I think they could finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th.
The three 9-7 teams (Missouri, Vandy and Auburn) could finish anywhere from 3rd to 10th. Missouri has LSU and Ole Miss this week. Vandy has Kentucky and us. Auburn has (gulp) Bama and Tennessee.
Arkansas is 8-8 and could climb as high as 4th but could fall as far as 10th. I think even if they lose their two games this week (at Tennessee, Kentucky at home), they would win tiebreakers to keep them out of 11th.
Florida and State could theoretically be 9-9 and work their way into a tie for fifth. Obviously we lose H2H tiebreakers with Auburn and Florida, but we would win a couple of them with Vandy and Arkansas if they get to 9-9. We would also win a two team tie with Missouri based off our win over A&M. The three and four way ties in this range are too numerous to count. We could also have a disaster of a week and end up 11th. Same for Florida if they lose twice this week (at UGA, host LSU) and we win at least one.
UGA could work themselves up to the 9th seed this week with a win or two and possibly some help. Worst case for them is 11th.
Personally I would like to get the 11 seed out of play as soon as possible. If we win tonight and Florida beats Georgia, then Georgia is locked in at 11. If we win tonight and UGA beats Florida, then we head into the weekend needing a win to ensure staying ahead of them. We of course are at Vandy. They will be at USC. If they win twice this week and we split our two, then we are likely to be the 11 seed.
We would lose a H2H tiebreaker to UGA at 8-10.
We would lose a three team tiebreaker with Georgia and Florida at 8-10.
We would lose a four team tiebreaker with Georgia, Florida and Arkansas at 8-10.
We would WIN a three team tiebreaker with Georgia and Arkansas at 8-10.
Got all that? There will be a quiz later today.
