SEC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

[615dawg]

With Vanderbilt's win in Rupp last night, the top seed for State will be No. 7

As it stands, we are the No. 8 seed, and will play Arkansas for the right to play Alabama. But there are games on Saturday, and almost every game being played could have an effect on MSU seeding. Let's take a look at the line where it matters.

Auburn (9-8) hosts Tennessee
Mississippi State (8-9) is at Vanderbilt
Arkansas (8-9) hosts Kentucky
Florida (8-9) hosts LSU

If State wins and chalk holds in the other three games, there will be a three way tie for No. 7 with Auburn, MSU and Florida. MSU finishes No. 9 in this scenario.

If State wins, Tennessee wins, Florida wins and Arkansas wins, there will be a four way tie for No. 7 with Auburn, MSU, Arkansas and Florida. MSU finishes No. 8 in this scenario.

If State wins, Tennessee wins, Kentucky wins and LSU wins, MSU will be the No. 7 seed.

If Auburn wins and there is a three way tie for No. 8, MSU will be the No. 8 seed.

If Auburn wins and there is a two way tie, MSU will be the No. 8 if tie is with Arkansas, and No. 9 if tie is with Florida.


If State loses and chalk holds in the other three games, State will be the No. 10 seed. In fact, if State loses, they are the No. 10 seed in every scenario but one unlikely:

If State loses and LSU beats Florida, State will be the No 9 seed.


So WIN = Lowest we could be is No. 9. High probability of being No. 8 or No. 9 (would take LSU beating Florida to be No. 7)
LOSE = Likely No. 10 (could be No. 9 if LSU beats Florida)

 

[missouridawg]

I honestly want nothing to do with Arkansas again. We've beat them and I don't want to give them the opportunity to square up that series. Their guard play by the end of our game overwhelmed our guards and I think they would pressure the hell out of us in a rematch and we'd lose. Really hope we don't see them again.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

If State wins, Tennessee wins, Kentucky wins and LSU wins, MSU will be the No. 7 seed.

I believe in this situation, State and Auburn would be 9-9. Florida and Arkansas would be 8-10. Thus would be tied with Auburn for 7th but lose the tiebreaker to them and be 8th. I don't see a scenario where we can be 7th.

 

[Spidey.sixpack]

it appears that Auburn can finish no lower than the 7 seed. they have wins over everyone who could possibly tie them in the event that they lose and finish 9-9.

they could finish as the 6 seed if ole miss beats missouri and they beat tennessee

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

8 or 9 seed won’t be ideal for us.
We need to win Saturday desperately so that the SEC Trny doesn’t matter very much.