Severe Threat for Friday

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

As expected, the SPC has introduced a severe threat for this Friday. Strong deep layer shear will be present and moisture looks to be sufficient to support severe weather. Still too early know specifics as to what type of storm mode and severe weather will be favored, but that will be ironed out in future updates. The GFS has also been consistent the last few days of an even more potent severe threat for that Sunday, too, but other models are in disagreement. Just something to watch.

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[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Risk for MS has stayed pretty much the same. Looking risk may be the most for central and south MS. An existing squall line should push into the state and could re-intensify as we get to the peak heating of the day. A few discrete supercells could also form out ahead of the main line

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

 

[Maroon Eagle]

What does Thursday night look like?

Since the sports seasons are over with, I’m planning on seeing Joshua Ray Walker at the Sundown in Ruston, Louisiana…

He performed on CBS Saturday Morning (well, Saturday morning) & his voice and songwriting are amazing:

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Ruston looks clear until after midnight right now.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Can you make the 80 degree temps come back?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Ruston looks clear until after midnight right now.

Thank you.

I’ve got two hours to drive there and two to drive back & I’ll likely leave there shortly after 11 so this system is something I’m keeping an eye on as well…

 

[cling84]

Will the atmosphere have enough time from Friday to Sunday to create such short-term convection? I always thought it took several days after the passage of a cold front for the atmosphere to become "severe weather" unstable...

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Will the atmosphere have enough time from Friday to Sunday to create such short-term convection? I always thought it took several days after the passage of a cold front for the atmosphere to become "severe weather" unstable...

Oh yes. It can do it in a matter of hours if the conditions are right. A prime example was a certain tornado outbreak which shall remain nameless due to people automatically thinking we're saying this next event is going to be like that one whenever it comes up.

This event is showing more signs of weakening than it is intensifying. While some of the analogs are still showing a solid event, a lot of the models are going the exact opposite and all but sticking a fork in it. The 00Z run of the GFS and Euro along with the overnight update from the SPC will be interesting to see where they take things. I'll just say I've gone from borderline certain I was chasing to a wait and see holding pattern.

 

[cling84]

Thanks. I don't know why "that event" slipped my mind... storms in the morning with more in the afternoons. Thanks for the reminder...

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

It is Spring now so the threat changes every new forecast modeling cycle. I would pay attention since it looks like there should be enough potential energy available for a system to tap into. Events also can reach severe limits easier because we are really entering a time frame we are more likely to have warm and humid air already in place to work with.

 

[PhredPhantom]

When you said “severe threat for Friday” I thought you might have been talking about us playing Vanderbilt.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

There is still a large model discrepancy regarding this system. The SPC summarizes it pretty well so I'll just let them give the details:
The most recent GFS shows an intense low-level jet over a large portion of LA and MS, with conditions favorable for supercells. CSU machine-learning probabilities have picked up on these favorable conditions and currently suggest a high probability of severe thunderstorms from northern LA across northern/central MS into Middle TN. However, recent guidance for the ECMWF and CMC does not match the intensity of the low-level jet from the GFS. Additionally, these models have shown more run-to-run consistency over the past few days. Severe thunderstorms are still possible across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast and Mid-South on Friday, but all of the factors mentioned above preclude introducing higher severeprobabilities with this outlook.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

 

[AstroDog]

Looks like guaranteed to rain during ballgame at 6 pm this Friday and only increases as the game continues. Maybe we should go for a DH on Saturday where it looks like no rain.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Looks like guaranteed to rain during ballgame at 6 pm this Friday and only increases as the game continues. Maybe we should go for a DH on Saturday where it looks like no rain.

Maybe we should just cancel all 3

 

[Shmuley]

Risk for MS has stayed pretty much the same. Looking risk may be the most for central and south MS. An existing squall line should push into the state and could re-intensify as we get to the peak heating of the day. A few discrete supercells could also form out ahead of the main line

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

Hugh, is it now an Enhanced risk for central Mississippi on Friday ?

and how about Sunday as well?

possible that all 3 this weekend are washouts? [/crosses fingers].

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Hugh, is it now an Enhanced risk for central Mississippi on Friday ?

and how about Sunday as well?

possible that all 3 this weekend are washouts? [/crosses fingers].

It is now enhanced. Sunday could possibly be another severe event but not to the level this one is.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

We've had so many near misses the last couple years that is just made me the weather guys I know who follow these things a little gun shy until the threat is more eminent. They have started to chirp it up a little bit more about this event and another system possibly on Sunday.

 

[The Peeper]

What does Thursday night look like?

Since the sports seasons are over with, I’m planning on seeing Joshua Ray Walker at the Sundown in Ruston, Louisiana…

He performed on CBS Saturday Morning (well, Saturday morning) & his voice and songwriting are amazing:

Have these two ever been seen together???

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Have these two ever been seen together???

View attachment 321030View attachment 321031

Yeah, he may look like a Sixpacker (pot.kettle) but he's a great singer.

(that's Joshua, not Peter)