Severe Weather Briefing for Wednesday Event.
- Thread starter Hugh's Burner Phone
- Start date
Outlook is dangerous.
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There is a huge hatched area for SIG Tornadoes. Be careful over there.
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View attachment 24275
There is a huge hatched area for SIG Tornadoes. Be careful over there.
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The HRRR is really dishing out a significant tornado threat for eastern Arkansas with some weakening by the time it makes the river. Still a straight line wind threat too.
I'm not sure it weakens much as it crosses the river. All depends on how fast we get this morning precip out of the area. SPC actually used the term loaded gun sounding this morning in their discussion. Anxiously awaiting their update at 8:00am. I'm looking at staging around Leland by lunch/early afternoon and going from there.
I am no professional. But I think we can expect one or two supercells mid afternoon that could drop a violent tornado somewhere in the delta on either side of the river....then we're going to get a bunch of messy convection in the lead up to the QLCS. Definitely a high end threat for a couple of super cells, and definitely a wind/hail/small spinup threat with the QLCS, but I'm not seeing "outbreak" like the wording suggests. I pray to God I'm not wrong about this. As I type, convection has moved out of DeSoto County earlier than expected, and the sun is out. Not a good start.
8:00am SPC update said they considered a high risk but decided against it for now. Next update around 11:00.
12z HRRR is rolling out. Still showing a scary tornado threat in Eastern Arkansas and moving into NW Mississppi and Memphis by 5ish.
This is 4 PM
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This is 5pm
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This is 4 PM
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This is 5pm
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There is some differing opinions this morning about whether all the previous activity will clear out in time to allow discrete cells to form and spawn violent tornadoes. I can see a line on satellite from Columbus to Arkansas of clearing skies. Watch out if skies do clear and help prime the atmosphere in northern Mississippi
If skies clear then I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump to high risk. This is potentially a dangerous set up.
Currently there's convection moving into the Memphis metro with some additional messy stuff moving this way from the southwest. If this holds up, there's a good chance this beats up the atmosphere pretty good and tamps down the severe threat for later.
If it helps, last night that big wave that came through Jackson last night was looking pretty bad on radar while it was in Louisiana. Hit the river and calmed down.
Yeah these lines of showers and storms keep reforming over the Delta and Memphis metro. Hopefully that keeps the atmosphere mixed up and a little more stable by this afternoon.
For us weather dummies who don't know SPC from STD, can someone boil this down in English? Do I need to get in my closet under the stairs or not???? And if so, what time?
I've seen a couple of future radar scans that show clear skies from now thru about 2:30, with a supercell forming just SE of Memphis metro and moving through the area in the 2:30/3:00 window, ahead of the squall line. Watching the convection coming out of Arkansas, it looks like it's fizzling out at the river. I guess that cap is doing its job - for now. It's gonna be a lot more interesting later.
SPC is Storm Prediction Center
Timing will depend on where your closet under the stairs reside. The storms should approach the river around noon to early afternoon and be clear of the state a little after midnight. My video above gives a rough timing estimate.
And here is the sounding for DeSoto county, approx 10:00 AM.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...9.9586&lat=34.9205&metar=&st=a1a14edc3b5cc474
Chase mode now activated. Pointing the old dodge west. Posting will now become limited and even more so once it kicks off. Live stream will be up later this afternoon for those of you that might be one of our Patreon supporters at the all access premiere level and above.
Bring it. You'll just have to choose between camping under the stairs with the wife and kids, or sitting on the back porch sipping football water with me as per usual during a storm.
Hopefully everybody stayed safe and had no damage yesterday, although damage reports were pretty widespread. Fortunately, we did not get the tornadoes yesterday that were anticipated. The overnight and early morning rain stabilized the atmosphere to the point it just wasn't able to reload to the level needed to pull off a tornado outbreak. I was on several storms yesterday I thought had a chance to go tornadic, but just couldn't quite pull it off. Some might say I drove 500 miles yesterday for nothing, but I'd do it again today if storms were in the area. Just wish diesel wasn't so damn expensive.
As for looking down the road there are a couple of low end severe chances this Friday and Saturday, but after that things may move into a more stable pattern for a few days. Very odd for this time of year so we will see if that holds.
As for looking down the road there are a couple of low end severe chances this Friday and Saturday, but after that things may move into a more stable pattern for a few days. Very odd for this time of year so we will see if that holds.
We got almost 4 inches out of that yesterday. I would love to see a more stable pattern because we need to get started planting and haven’t done anything yet.
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