Severe Weather Friday Round 2...Fight

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Off the bat...this one doesn't look to park near the punch of last Friday even though there is still some forecast uncertainty. The core of this system will be further north so the best forcing and wind fields will be displaced to our north. However, the best moisture return will be down in our area noted by forecast mid 60's dew points. Wind shear will be good enough to support at some level of severe threat over MS...particularly the extreme NW part of the state where an enhanced risk resides with a slight risk covering the rest of the north and most of the central part of the state. Storm mode looks to be a mix of discrete supercells and linear. Timing is not nailed down yet but expect late afternoon into the overnight hours depending on your part of the state.
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[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The SPC has expanded the enhanced risk to cover more of north MS as some of the models continue to show an uptick in intensity further south and east than earlier runs. The SPC mentions potentially intense and widespread severe weather possible Friday afternoon and night. Storm mode looks to favor and mixture of discrete supercells and linear convection. I still don't think things are looking like a repeat of last Friday, but things are trending stronger. That said, the synoptic set up is different with this storm than last week which is what I think will keep it from being not quite as intense as last week. I'm hoping I'm right about this.

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[Col. Forbin]

Is a timing becoming clearer now? Traveling Jackson to Memphis friday.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Is a timing becoming clearer now? Traveling Jackson to Memphis friday.

Looking mainly afternoon to overnight, but I hate to try and narrow it down even further right now.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

April looks like it's going to be a very busy month

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Already another event tagged by the SPS for Tuesday. Just trying to get through this one first before doing a lot of talking about this one.

 

[Trazom]

The SPC has expanded the enhanced risk to cover more of north MS as some of the models continue to show an uptick in intensity further south and east than earlier runs. The SPC mentions potentially intense and widespread severe weather possible Friday afternoon and night. Storm mode looks to favor and mixture of discrete supercells and linear convection. I still don't think things are looking like a repeat of last Friday, but things are trending stronger. That said, the synoptic set up is different with this storm than last week which is what I think will keep it from being not quite as intense as last week. I'm hoping I'm right about this.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

View attachment 323145View attachment 323146

Thanks for all you do HBP. Where can I find that forecast product with the Mississippi detail. All I can find from the SPC is this one:

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Thanks for all you do HBP. Where can I find that forecast product with the Mississippi detail. All I can find from the SPC is this one:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/MS/

Keep in mind this is graphics only. The discussion to go along with it is not included.

 

[Trazom]

Thank you, HBP!

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Already another event tagged by the SPS for Tuesday. Just trying to get through this one first before doing a lot of talking about this one.

They are both threats, but the one on Tuesday really concerns men b

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

They are both threats, but the one on Tuesday really concerns men b

I think the one Friday will affect MO and IA more. We're pretty much on the southern periphery of this system.

 

[Drebin]

Already another event tagged by the SPS for Tuesday. Just trying to get through this one first before doing a lot of talking about this one.

Yeah, Tuesday is looking....interesting

 

[Drebin]

I think the one Friday will affect MO and IA more. We're pretty much on the southern periphery of this system.

Yes, but I read something from SPC that stated they were really concerned with the setup in the southern end of the enhanced area. There are a couple of failure modes that have to be overcome though.

 

[peewee.sixpack]

April looks like it's going to be a very busy month

Yep, and conditions are potentially shaping up for major flooding on the Lower MS River. Just what we need (SMH).

 

[NTDawg]

Already another event tagged by the SPS for Tuesday. Just trying to get through this one first before doing a lot of talking about this one.

SPS we have arrived and have our own weather forecasting model or whatever you call it. "We are somebody"

 

[Car Ramrod.sixpack]

Yep, and conditions are potentially shaping up for major flooding on the Lower MS River. Just what we need (SMH).

AR is going to be in some trouble if they and MO keep getting these types storms. I was in northern west AR this past weekend and every river I drove across was nearing or out of their banks. The large flood control lakes (Beaver, Table Rock, Bull Shoals, Norfork, and Greer's Ferry) are above top of power pool and well into their conservation pool levels. Its not good for these lake to be this far into their capacity this early. It wouldn't surprise me that you will see more spillway release to bring the lake levels down rather than hydro generation. This is not good for the trout population or flooding in the lower white and lower MS River.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Yes, but I read something from SPC that stated they were really concerned with the setup in the southern end of the enhanced area. There are a couple of failure modes that have to be overcome though.

They upgraded a small area near Memphis to a mod risk. I just haven't had a chance to post anything.

 

[stateu1]

AR is going to be in some trouble if they and MO keep getting these types storms. I was in northern west AR this past weekend and every river I drove across was nearing or out of their banks. The large flood control lakes (Beaver, Table Rock, Bull Shoals, Norfork, and Greer's Ferry) are above top of power pool and well into their conservation pool levels. Its not good for these lake to be this far into their capacity this early. It wouldn't surprise me that you will see more spillway release to bring the lake levels down rather than hydro generation. This is not good for the trout population or flooding in the lower white and lower MS River.

A quick look at Bull Shoals data says 13ft over power pool and they a hardly generating now.
I have fished on the white around the time of spillway release and it was fantastic. Every fish we caught had a wad of crawlers in their throat from them being washed in from the banks.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

 

[Car Ramrod.sixpack]

A quick look at Bull Shoals data says 13ft over power pool and they a hardly generating now.
I have fished on the white around the time of spillway release and it was fantastic. Every fish we caught had a wad of crawlers in their throat from them being washed in from the banks.

I fish the white quite often and check the generation schedule almost daily. Up until last Saturday for the past 2 weeks they were running 5-6 units 24/7. Since Friday evening they have throttled down to 1-2 units. They only do this when the lower white is at or approaching flood stage.

 

[stateu1]

They only do this when the lower white is at or approaching flood stage.

Only?

 

[Car Ramrod.sixpack]

Only?

Yes cutting generation when the lake is well above top of power pool.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Here is the latest update. The enhanced risk has been pushed south along for severe wind. The tornado threat has also been expanded slightly. Significant and long track tornadoes will be possible in the hatched area. Timing looks to be late afternoon for the NW part of the state going into the overnight hours. Discrete storms should be the primary storm mode in the afternoon growing upscale into a QLCS linear event during the night.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Here is the latest update. The enhanced risk has been pushed south along for severe wind. The tornado threat has also been expanded slightly. Significant and long track tornadoes will be possible in the hatched area. Timing looks to be late afternoon for the NW part of the state going into the overnight hours. Discrete storms should be the primary storm mode in the afternoon growing upscale into a QLCS linear event during the night.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

There was some talk that they were gonna expand it across from North Mississippi. For some reason they're more worried about the extreme northern part of the state and Delta but the biggest threat seems to be over in Arkansas and Southern Missouri.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

There was some talk that they were gonna expand it across from North Mississippi. For some reason they're more worried about the extreme northern part of the state and Delta but the biggest threat seems to be over in Arkansas and Southern Missouri.

This is a bi-modal storm as it has two main threat areas. I do think people in eastern and northeastern AR need to be very weather aware tomorrow afternoon.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I just got off the phone with my mother. I have not spoken to her since the storm hit. Still can't get through on the conventional phone but she finally had a chance to call me on her cell phone. She said it's still bad in Amory, and Wren and Smithville and she is not looking forward to the chances of another storm tomorrow night. She's most worried about is the trees that were weakened by this last storm that may come down with more rain and strong winds. The tornado actually came thru a half a mile from her house. I really hope tomorrow night is a bust at least in Monroe County and over around Rolling Fork