Wanted to shamelessly promote our Patreon site (patreon.com/NMSCAS) as well as draw some attention to our social media guy who makes all these posts the days leading up to a severe threat. These posts are normally reserved for our patreon site on our base level of $1/month. Our premiere package ($5/month) includes extra perks such as access to our live chase feeds.
Here is his first write up for this severe event. As we get closer the details become more refined.
Post Name: Severe Weather Possible to Likely Next Week (3/02-03/03)
It's another week, and you know what that means. You guessed right; another severe weather threat is approaching, which could be significant. We will get into the details shortly, but here is a quick note on a few things. First, the severe weather threat out west today (Sunday) will not affect us much tomorrow across Mississippi and Alabama except for some scattered showers and wind gusts up to 40mph. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for West Tennessee, North, Central Alabama, and North and Central Mississippi until at least 04:00 PM, if not longer.
Now, let's talk about the severe weather threat for Thursday into Friday. As mentioned above, this threat could be significant as the Storm Prediction Center has its equivalent of an ENHANCED (3/5) Risk for severe weather across much of Mississippi and West Alabama. In addition, in this morning's outlook, the SPC mentioned that a "Severe Weather Outbreak is possible." Below is the text from the SPC regarding the Thursday timeframe:
On Thursday, an upper-level trough will move eastward from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage, and perhaps some tornadoes. As a result, a widespread severe weather outbreak will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail, and tornadoes should continue."
NWS Jackosn and Memphis both agree that severe thunderstorms are likely Thursday going into Thursday night. Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. This event is still several days away, so stay tuned for updates on impacts and timing over the next few days.
We are entering our peak severe weather season (from late October to mid-May), where nearly 40% of all tornadoes in Mississippi since 1950 occurred in March and April. So NOW is the time to prepare your severe weather action plans. We have severe weather tips on our website, and be sure to view our Severe Weather Video Series here:
https://tinyurl.com/y83n4h6v
Attachments:
-Wind Advisory Graphic
-SPC Outlooks for Thursday and Friday.
-NWS Graphics
-Colorado State Probability Outlook
