So Shall It Be Written, So Shall It Be Done (If the BOT had any leadership with brains)

[HarrisburgDave]

Let us assume some form of the following will be taking place:

1. Players will become unionized, encouraged by self interest and the universities themselves. NIL will continue, with a negotiated salary structure as base compensation.

2. The Universities will continue their consolidation into the haves and have nots. A top tier of 40 teams, more or less, will emerge.

3. Television contracts and money will flow into the top tier schools, effectively eliminating the remaining 80 D1 football programs from competition for the 500 or so top high school "graduates/players".

4. The courts will be busy for years sorting out the anti-trust, labor law, and other issues.

5. Congress will eventually step in, driven by the politicians representing the "left out" programs, the 40 or so schools seeking to dominate the new environment, and the courts which will be calling for some legislation to regulate the mess.

6. In ten years there will be some stability, with settlement of the legal issues driven by the economics.

What should the BOT be doing?

A. Kick aside any idea of a $700 million project to retrofit a stadium built for the old system.

B. Seek to maximize revenue while preserving future options.

C. Understand that future football economics will bear little resemblance to the current system.

If I was King?

Assumption One - Penn State will be part of the 40 or so top tier programs to benefit from the new system.

Assumption Two - Once the legal issues are settled there will be a clear path to building and scaling a profitable football enterprise.

Assumption Three - The current Beaver Stadium is a patched together mess that is too expensive to renovate and prepare in order to maximize revenue and meet the needs of the program to be.

In My Infinite Wisdom I Decree -

Thou shall establish a planning body that will plan to build a new 65,000 seat stadium, with super boxes, a mall like area of concessions/shopping/and entertainment integrated into the structure, and the infrastructure needed to support the facility. The new Beaver Stadium at Paterno Field will be built somewhere adjacent to the existing stadium with the total demolition of the existing facility following the construction of the new complex. Initial budget estimate of $2.5 billion plus.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Thou shall establish a planning body that will plan to build a new 65,000 seat stadium, with super boxes, a mall like area of concessions/shopping/and entertainment integrated into the structure, and the infrastructure needed to support the facility. The new Beaver Stadium at Paterno Field will be built somewhere adjacent to the existing stadium with the total demolition of the existing facility following the construction of the new complex. Initial budget estimate of $2.5 billion plus.

I guess this new stadium is a must of some ways, is a cost of doing business in this new structure, and will be partially paid for by sources outside of ticket prices. But it's hard to see the ROI on it...from a simplistic standpoint, if we have 65k sold out every game, have 7 home games/year, and wanted to pay for it over 40 years worth of ticket sales in a 0% interest environment...we'd be looking at raising ticket prices by $137/seat per game (and obviously this new stadium will have luxury boxes and premium seating to bring in some of this, but it also won't be financed at 0%).

It's just crazy to think about investing 2.5 BILLION dollars in a building that has traditionally had paying customers 7 days each year.

 

[GrimReaper]

I guess this new stadium is a must of some ways, is a cost of doing business in this new structure, and will be partially paid for by sources outside of ticket prices. But it's hard to see the ROI on it...from a simplistic standpoint, if we have 65k sold out every game, have 7 home games/year, and wanted to pay for it over 40 years worth of ticket sales in a 0% interest environment...we'd be looking at raising ticket prices by $137/seat per game (and obviously this new stadium will have luxury boxes and premium seating to bring in some of this, but it also won't be financed at 0%).

It's just crazy to think about investing 2.5 BILLION dollars in a building that has traditionally had paying customers 7 days each year.

You might want to check your math.

 

[PSUFTG2]

I guess this new stadium is a must of some ways, is a cost of doing business in this new structure, and will be partially paid for by sources outside of ticket prices. But it's hard to see the ROI on it...from a simplistic standpoint, if we have 65k sold out every game, have 7 home games/year, and wanted to pay for it over 40 years worth of ticket sales in a 0% interest environment...we'd be looking at raising ticket prices by $137/seat per game (and obviously this new stadium will have luxury boxes and premium seating to bring in some of this, but it also won't be financed at 0%).

It's just crazy to think about investing 2.5 BILLION dollars in a building that has traditionally had paying customers 7 days each year.

1) Any large football stadium in Central PA will have - for all intents and purposes beyond rounding error - 7 days per year of impactful usage.

2) Wanna' see something that makes no fiscal sense? try a $700 million "renovation" to a 60 year old structure - that leaves 2/3 of the stadium as..... a 60 year old structure.

3) The "$700 MM" financials are an abject clown show. The annual debt service (on just this project) would be between $45 MM and $65 MM per year (depending on your interest rate assumptions, and how long you plan to be paying it down... I used a range of 20 years to 30 years). Keep in mind, ICA has already taken on huge additional debt (well, the UNIVERSITY has taken on huge additional debt) for other ICA stuff - that hasn't even hit the books yet vav debt burden.

4) Whether a new stadium should be considered or not (and it is likely to be far more long-term fiscally prudent/less fiscally imprudent than the $700 million deal that fell from the heavens as an Immaculate Deception), the cost of a new stadium fit out for college football would be far less than $2.5 Billion (unless the process is overseen by ???). That is a clown number floated as propaganda to the unwashed (including the members of the BOT) to try to support an unsupportable pre-conceived desire..... much like the "untruths" about the $300 Million of maintenance backlog to Beaver Stadium.

 

[Erial_Lion]

You might want to check your math.

Got the same number again…

65000 * 7 * 40 = 18.2 million thru the gates

They would each pay $137.36/game if they were covering 2.5 billion.

What are you missing?

 

[LBUfanatic]

Let us assume some form of the following will be taking place:

1. Players will become unionized, encouraged by self interest and the universities themselves. NIL will continue, with a negotiated salary structure as base compensation.

2. The Universities will continue their consolidation into the haves and have nots. A top tier of 40 teams, more or less, will emerge.

3. Television contracts and money will flow into the top tier schools, effectively eliminating the remaining 80 D1 football programs from competition for the 500 or so top high school "graduates/players".

4. The courts will be busy for years sorting out the anti-trust, labor law, and other issues.

5. Congress will eventually step in, driven by the politicians representing the "left out" programs, the 40 or so schools seeking to dominate the new environment, and the courts which will be calling for some legislation to regulate the mess.

6. In ten years there will be some stability, with settlement of the legal issues driven by the economics.

What should the BOT be doing?

A. Kick aside any idea of a $700 million project to retrofit a stadium built for the old system.

B. Seek to maximize revenue while preserving future options.

C. Understand that future football economics will bear little resemblance to the current system.

If I was King?

Assumption One - Penn State will be part of the 40 or so top tier programs to benefit from the new system.

Assumption Two - Once the legal issues are settled there will be a clear path to building and scaling a profitable football enterprise.

Assumption Three - The current Beaver Stadium is a patched together mess that is too expensive to renovate and prepare in order to maximize revenue and meet the needs of the program to be.

In My Infinite Wisdom I Decree -

Thou shall establish a planning body that will plan to build a new 65,000 seat stadium, with super boxes, a mall like area of concessions/shopping/and entertainment integrated into the structure, and the infrastructure needed to support the facility. The new Beaver Stadium at Paterno Field will be built somewhere adjacent to the existing stadium with the total demolition of the existing facility following the construction of the new complex. Initial budget estimate of $2.5 billion plus.

Glad you’re not on the board.

 

[GrimReaper]

Got the same number again…

65000 * 7 * 40 = 18.2 million thru the gates

They would each pay $137.36/game if they were covering 2.5 billion.

What are you missing?

$2.5 billion, since no one at PSU has cited that number. And if PSU goes to market to raise that kind of money, all bets are off.

 

[Erial_Lion]

$2.5 billion, since no one at PSU has cited that number. And if PSU goes to market to raise that kind of money, all bets are off.

What does that have to do with my math? My comment was using the number cited in the post to which I responded.

 

[GrimReaper]

What does that have to do with my math? My comment was using the number cited in the post to which I responded.

So you're using HarrisburgDave's number, which comes from who knows where, as a basis for discussion. My apologies for interrupting your journey to Never-Never Land. ,

 

[Erial_Lion]

So you're using HarrisburgDave's number, which comes from who knows where, as a basis for discussion. My apologies for interrupting your journey to Never-Never Land. ,

Good God...my post was showing how unrealistic it was to actually spend 2.5 billion on a stadium when you look at how many people would actually come through the gates of it. And it used correct math based on his assumption. Reading comprehension Art.

 

[Catch1lion]

PSUFTG2- Wanna' see something that makes no fiscal sense? try a $700 million "renovation" to a 60 year old structure - that leaves 2/3 of the stadium as..... a 60 year old structure.

 

[manatree]

I believe that portions of the stadium are much older than 60 years. It was dismantled and moved after the 1959 season.

 

[GrimReaper]

Good God...my post was showing how unrealistic it was to actually spend 2.5 billion on a stadium when you look at how many people would actually come through the gates of it. And it used correct math based on his assumption. Reading comprehension Art.

Unrealistic? Ask aTm fans what happened to their ticket costs after Kyle Field was renovated at a fraction of the number you are throwing around, Pretty much all of them would be happy to have gotten way with less than a thousand a year,

 

[BobPSU92]

PSU should get out of football now. Avoid a lot of heartache.

 

[Keyser Soze 16802]

Clearly the solution is a combination football stadium and art museum

 

[GrimReaper]

Clearly the solution is a combination football stadium and art museum

Does PSU need the art museum part once Fat's consulting gig is up and he a Molls exit State College stage left?

 

[Keyser Soze 16802]

Does PSU need the art museum part once Fat's consulting gig is up and he a Molls exit State College stage left?

Yes, State College needs those 400,000 extra visitors each year

 

[GrimReaper]

Yes, State College needs those 400,000 extra visitors each year

Molls and The Fatman are going to really rack up the air miles getting back there that often.

 

[bdgan]

Thou shall establish a planning body that will plan to build a new 65,000 seat stadium

The Bills are building a new 62,000 seat stadium for $1.7 billion. New York State is paying half of that cost and they will also pay maintenance costs.

Cities & states pay for most professional stadiums. Do you really think PA will do that for PSU when they're already dealing with pro stadiums in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh?

 

[GrimReaper]

The Bills are building a new 62,000 seat stadium for $1.7 billion. New York State is paying half of that cost and they will also pay maintenance costs.

Cities & states pay for most professional stadiums. Do you really think PA will do that for PSU when they're already dealing with pro stadiums in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh?

The Commonwealth contributed $150mm and $175mm to the construction of stadiums in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia respectively. That was 20 years ago. Do not believe there are any ongoing obligations.

Will Harrisburg contribute anything to renovating Beaver Stadium? Remains to be seen.

 

[JohnJumba]

Did they consult with Bruce the Real Estate King?

 

[PSU87]

I'll confess there are times I say "screw it".... build that 65,000 seat stadium and play FCS

 

[GrimReaper]

I'll confess there are times I say "screw it".... build that 65,000 seat stadium and play FCS

Kraft had better hope that interest in the program doesn't diminish and ticket sales and other means of financial support don't go into the crapper.

 

[flash86]

Let us assume some form of the following will be taking place:

1. Players will become unionized, encouraged by self interest and the universities themselves. NIL will continue, with a negotiated salary structure as base compensation.

2. The Universities will continue their consolidation into the haves and have nots. A top tier of 40 teams, more or less, will emerge.

3. Television contracts and money will flow into the top tier schools, effectively eliminating the remaining 80 D1 football programs from competition for the 500 or so top high school "graduates/players".

4. The courts will be busy for years sorting out the anti-trust, labor law, and other issues.

5. Congress will eventually step in, driven by the politicians representing the "left out" programs, the 40 or so schools seeking to dominate the new environment, and the courts which will be calling for some legislation to regulate the mess.

6. In ten years there will be some stability, with settlement of the legal issues driven by the economics.

What should the BOT be doing?

A. Kick aside any idea of a $700 million project to retrofit a stadium built for the old system.

B. Seek to maximize revenue while preserving future options.

C. Understand that future football economics will bear little resemblance to the current system.

If I was King?

Assumption One - Penn State will be part of the 40 or so top tier programs to benefit from the new system.

Assumption Two - Once the legal issues are settled there will be a clear path to building and scaling a profitable football enterprise.

Assumption Three - The current Beaver Stadium is a patched together mess that is too expensive to renovate and prepare in order to maximize revenue and meet the needs of the program to be.

In My Infinite Wisdom I Decree -

Thou shall establish a planning body that will plan to build a new 65,000 seat stadium, with super boxes, a mall like area of concessions/shopping/and entertainment integrated into the structure, and the infrastructure needed to support the facility. The new Beaver Stadium at Paterno Field will be built somewhere adjacent to the existing stadium with the total demolition of the existing facility following the construction of the new complex. Initial budget estimate of $2.5 billion plus.

 

[JohnJumba]

Did they consult with Bruce the Real Estate King?