SP+ has us ranked 55th

[dickiedawg]

If you’re not familiar, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has a computer power ranking that is supposed to be predictive. Some posters here hate it, that’s fine. Also, it’s paywalled.
Sp+ ranks
It feels far closer to real life than the guy who had us 78th, I’ll tell you that much.

1 Georgia
4 Alabama
5 Texas
8 Ole Miss
10 LSU
11 Missouri
13 Oklahoma
14 Texas A&M
15 Tennessee
22 Kentucky
23 Florida
25 Auburn
35 S. Carolina
44 Arkansas
55 Mississippi State
89 Vanderbilt

 

[Darryl Steight]

I know this horse has been dead for a while, but it still boggles the mind. We're 9-3 the last 12 games against the Pigs, including winning the last 2. Yet every single poll...

 

[GloryDawg]

I know this horse has been dead for a while, but it still boggles the mind. We're 9-3 the last 12 games against the Pigs, including winning the last 2. Yet every single poll...

The lost their QB and still has Tit Man running the ship.

 

[patdog]

ESPN's FPI has us #48. I don't put too much stock into computer rankings (GIGO), but both of those seem about right.

 

[GloryDawg]

ESPN's FPI has us #48. I don't put too much stock into computer rankings (GIGO), but both of those seem about right.

I agree. With the portal how do they really know, Missouri completely turned around with one portal class. No one saw that coming last season,

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Looks like our Mizzou game is going to be an L.

 

[maroonmania]

I put little stock into any of this because nobody knows what to do with us. We have a HC that has never been a HC, we flipped our roster in a pretty big way, have almost no name players on our roster and a DC who has never called a defense. If you asked the average college football fan out there who has no connection to MSU I'm not sure they could name one player on our roster. This is one year that I'm not taking offense to our low ranking because, even though we might actually be pretty decent, there is really no good reason for an outsider to expect anything out of us.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I put little stock into any of this because nobody knows what to do with us. We have a HC that has never been a HC, we flipped our roster in a pretty big way, have almost no name players on our roster and a DC who has never called a defense. If you asked the average college football fan out there who has no connection to MSU I'm not sure they could name one player on our roster. This is one year that I'm not taking offense to our low ranking because, even though we might actually be pretty decent, there is really no good reason for an outsider to expect anything out of us.

I guess it comes down to whether we will struggle in anonymity or pick ourselves up and prove everybody wrong. It will come down to the players and coaches. Whether we play a lot better this year instead of looking like we are making another episode of Keystone cops.

It's pretty much like any other season at MSU.

 

[MStateDawg]

I know this horse has been dead for a while, but it still boggles the mind. We're 9-3 the last 12 games against the Pigs, including winning the last 2. Yet every single poll...

One of the data points for a preseason poll like SP is returning starters. Outside of our placekicker, we return 2 starters. That is going to kill us in all these types of polls.

 

[onewoof]

The only good shot we have for an SEC win is Arkansas at Davis Wade. We could also sandbag playing our first 3 non-conference games and have a sluggers chance at Florida. But that is all I see, I only see 4 certain non-conference wins, best case 6 with the 2 SEC games.

 

[maroonfriday]

I know this horse has been dead for a while, but it still boggles the mind. We're 9-3 the last 12 games against the Pigs, including winning the last 2. Yet every single poll...

SP+ is not a poll. Which Bill has to reiterate every single season to people. As mentioned, returning starters is a big part of the formula, but that rolls off more as the season progresses. His projections are pretty good compared to many others, especially as new data is compiled as the season goes on.

 

[patdog]

The only good shot we have for an SEC win is Arkansas at Davis Wade. We could also sandbag playing our first 3 non-conference games and have a sluggers chance at Florida. But that is all I see, I only see 4 certain non-conference wins, best case 6 with the 2 SEC games.

Pretty much agree, except Toledo and Arizona St. aren't automatic wins. I think we win both. But those could be losses. Especially early in the season with so many new players and coaches playing and coaching in their first 2 real games.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

If you’re not familiar, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has a computer power ranking that is supposed to be predictive. Some posters here hate it, that’s fine. Also, it’s paywalled.
Sp+ ranks
It feels far closer to real life than the guy who had us 78th, I’ll tell you that much.

1 Georgia
4 Alabama
5 Texas
8 Ole Miss
10 LSU
11 Missouri
13 Oklahoma
14 Texas A&M
15 Tennessee
22 Kentucky
23 Florida
25 Auburn
35 S. Carolina
44 Arkansas
55 Mississippi State
89 Vanderbilt

Tell RJ Young to suck it!

 

[Darryl Steight]

SP+ is not a poll. Which Bill has to reiterate every single season to people. As mentioned, returning starters is a big part of the formula, but that rolls off more as the season progresses. His projections are pretty good compared to many others, especially as new data is compiled as the season goes on.

Good point, this guy's list is an "opinion" and not a poll. I was really generalizing about all the polls/opinion pieces that have come out lately.

I haven't studied them, but Arkansas' 4 returning starters at RG, LG, TE and 1 receiver must be high level impact players to carry that team. And maybe their Boise State transfer QB I had never heard of is that much better than our former Big 12 Championship-game-winning Baylor transfer QB. Who knows.

Either that or some teams seem to always get the benefit of the doubt while we never do. I should probably learn to enjoy it like some posters seem to, but it still irks the shiit out of me. Oh well.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

If you’re not familiar, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has a computer power ranking that is supposed to be predictive. Some posters here hate it, that’s fine. Also, it’s paywalled.
Sp+ ranks
It feels far closer to real life than the guy who had us 78th, I’ll tell you that much.

1 Georgia
4 Alabama
5 Texas
8 Ole Miss
10 LSU
11 Missouri
13 Oklahoma
14 Texas A&M
15 Tennessee
22 Kentucky
23 Florida
25 Auburn
35 S. Carolina
44 Arkansas
55 Mississippi State
89 Vanderbilt

That's probably where we are when we usually make a run. Wow the SEC is stacked.

 

[MedDawg]

The only good shot we have for an SEC win is Arkansas at Davis Wade. We could also sandbag playing our first 3 non-conference games and have a sluggers chance at Florida. But that is all I see, I only see 4 certain non-conference wins, best case 6 with the 2 SEC games.

Florida comes to Starkville and they could be bad. A 3-0 State team could be favored over a 1-2 Florida team.

 

[85Bears]

If you’re not familiar, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has a computer power ranking that is supposed to be predictive. Some posters here hate it, that’s fine. Also, it’s paywalled.
Sp+ ranks
It feels far closer to real life than the guy who had us 78th, I’ll tell you that much.

1 Georgia
4 Alabama
5 Texas
8 Ole Miss
10 LSU
11 Missouri
13 Oklahoma
14 Texas A&M
15 Tennessee
22 Kentucky
23 Florida
25 Auburn
35 S. Carolina
44 Arkansas
55 Mississippi State
89 Vanderbilt

Those rankings look very reasonable, but I think #8 through #22 are pretty difficult to pick in order. There will probably be a shakeup there. Ole Miss, LSU, Tenn, Missouri, OU and A&M.....put them in a bag and shake them up because any of them could come out on top of the other in the final rankings.

 

[onewoof]

Florida comes to Starkville and they could be bad. A 3-0 State team could be favored over a 1-2 Florida team.

True - they play Miami and A&M so they will lay out all of their playbook for us to study.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Tell RJ Young to suck it!

And stay in his copier and printer lane. **

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Pretty much agree, except Toledo and Arizona St. aren't automatic wins. I think we win both. But those could be losses. Especially early in the season with so many new players and coaches playing and coaching in their first 2 real games.

Florida comes to Starkville and they could be bad. A 3-0 State team could be favored over a 1-2 Florida team.

Yep. Could.

But lots of personnel turnover for State could mean a rusty start.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bulldogs were at best 3-1 in nonconference games for the reasons Pat mentioned.

 

[patdog]

True - they play Miami and A&M so they will lay out all of their playbook for us to study.

One thing in their favor, those first 3 games are all at home. And they have a lot more talent than many on here give them credit for. Of course, one thing in our favor is the Florida game is at home. I'm predicting a loss, but it's definitely a game we could win. I'd rather swap their spot on the schedule with Mississippi though. They will have fired their coach and given up by then.

 

[HuntDawg]

Just too many unknowns.

Could be a 3 win football team, 4-5 seems like its not far fetched. 6-7 seems to be the high water mark. 8 would be the equivilant of a national championship type season

agree with pat. The game outwest im far far far from a gimme.. and toledo at home isnt your typical gimme. MAC teams have given bigger programs fits in the past. Florida and Arkansas seem like the most winnable SEC games.

 

[StateCollege]

I know this horse has been dead for a while, but it still boggles the mind. We're 9-3 the last 12 games against the Pigs, including winning the last 2. Yet every single poll...

Based on Vegas O/U win totals, Arkansas is technically expected to win more games than us. Granted, it's very close. Both teams are 4.5 wins, but the Arky odds favor the over and ours is towards the under.

 

[Ozarkdawg]

One of the data points for a preseason poll like SP is returning starters. Outside of our placekicker, we return 2 starters. That is going to kill us in all these types of polls.

It may be only 2 MSU starters returning, but there are guys going to start that were starters at other schools so there is some experience there. Some SEC, some not. Of course there is also the question, being a previous starter or not how long for them to really gel on a new team with new coaches?