Tracking the chance we are extended a bowl bid if we finish 5-7.
Week 1 (with more background): https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/bowl-chances-at-5-7.1123980/
Week 2: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-scenario-10-23.1134896/
None of the nine teams in front of us earned their sixth win this week, but several took steps in the right direction.
Like last week, there are six teams ahead of us in the APR projected to win at least six games. If that happens, that would put us fourth in the APR behind Northwestern, Cincinnati and Wake Forest.
There are 41 bowl games, 82 slots to fill.
10/30: 43 teams bowl eligible. 19 with five wins. 27 with four wins. 17 with three wins. 27 with 2, 1, or 0 (poor Sam Houston State).
10/23: 32 teams are already bowl eligible, 19 more have five wins, 29 have four wins. 24 more teams sit at 3 wins.
Week 1 (with more background): https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/bowl-chances-at-5-7.1123980/
Week 2: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-scenario-10-23.1134896/
None of the nine teams in front of us earned their sixth win this week, but several took steps in the right direction.
| Apr Rank | School | W | L | Remaining Schedule | Projected wins | Proj Total |
| 1 | Northwestern | 4 | 4 | Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 2 | 6 | UCF, Houston, West VA, Kansas | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 5 | 3 | Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Wake Forest | 4 | 4 | Duke, NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Boise State | 4 | 4 | Fresno St, New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Iowa State | 5 | 3 | Kansas, BYU, Texas, Kansas State | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Rice | 4 | 4 | SMU, UTSA, Charlotte, FAU | 2 | 6 |
| 19 | Auburn | 4 | 4 | Vandy, Arkansas, New Mexico State, Bama | 3 | 7 |
| 19 | Boston College | 5 | 3 | Syracuse, Va Tech, Pitt, Miami | 1 | 6 |
| 19 | Mississippi State | 4 | 4 | Kentucky, Texas A&M, Southern Miss, Ole Miss | 1 | 5 |
Like last week, there are six teams ahead of us in the APR projected to win at least six games. If that happens, that would put us fourth in the APR behind Northwestern, Cincinnati and Wake Forest.
- Minnesota, Iowa State and Boston College all earned their fifth win this weekend. Even if these teams lose out, we can't pass these teams in the APR so essentially the have six wins as far as far as we are concerned. They are all projected to get that win though. When they do, they will fall off of the table above.
- Auburn and Boise State each earned their fourth win and have good opportunities ahead to reach 6 or higher.
- Northwestern's upset win over Maryland this weekend was probably the biggest result in this discussion. That puts them at 4-4 and they are now projected to beat Purdue to get to 5-7. (They had been projected to lose out.)
- Cincinnati lost their sixth straight game and needs three out of their last four to get to 5-7, but they are only projected to win one of them. They are almost done it seems.
- Wake Forest lost to Florida State and is predicted to lose out. Finding one win against their remaining schedule would likely secure them no worse than the second spot if other results play out as expected.
- Rice lost to Tulane as expected. They are projected to lose the next two as well before winning the last two.
There are 41 bowl games, 82 slots to fill.
10/30: 43 teams bowl eligible. 19 with five wins. 27 with four wins. 17 with three wins. 27 with 2, 1, or 0 (poor Sam Houston State).
10/23: 32 teams are already bowl eligible, 19 more have five wins, 29 have four wins. 24 more teams sit at 3 wins.
