Here we are, just where we thought we might be a month ago.
Week 1 (with more background): https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/bowl-chances-at-5-7.1123980/
Week 2: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-scenario-10-23.1134896/
Week 3: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-bowl-game-scenario-10-30.1146142/#post-21162683
Week 4: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-bowl-game-scenario-11-7.1160859/#post-21476009
Week 5: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-bowl-game-scenario-11-14.1176515/
Several changes to the APR table this week. Northwestern, Wisconsin and Boise State all earned their sixth win and bowl eligibility, so they are off the table below. Cincinnati lost again to fall to 3-8 and are thus eliminated from consideration.
Obviously the best path is to win Thursday and get that 6th win. As for our APR rank, we will be no worse than 4th but could end up first if we are indeed 5-7. Should Minnesota and Rice win, they come off the list, albeit while taking a bowl slot in the process. Wake is interesting. Syracuse is 5-6 and thus trying to get bowl eligible. Wake is 4-7 and trying to be the #1 or #2 APR team. Either way, the winner of that game is a higher priority than we will be assuming we lose. If 'Cuse wins they are 6-6 and Wake falls to 4-8. If Wake wins, they are 5-7 and can get in on APR while Syracuse is 5-7 and behind us in APR.
More attention this weekend will be on the 5 win teams. First, an update on the bowl games. Reminder, 41 bowl games, 82 slots.
11/21: 69 teams are now bowl eligible. 39 teams are at four or fewer wins. The only four win team we have to worry about is Wake Forest as noted above. There are 25 teams with five wins. Up to 13 of them will be playing in bowl games this season no matter if they are 6-6 or 5-7 (could be 12, depending on how many win and what Wake does against Syracuse).
11/14: 60 teams bowl eligible, 22 with five wins, 19 with 4 wins. Three are 22 teams with three wins, but they are all 3-7 and other than Cincinnati, cannot be bowl eligible nor ranked above us in the APR. So 21 of those are out of the running. There are 10 teams with 1 or 2 wins. They are also done. That leaves a pool of 102 teams to fill 82 slots.
11/7: 53 teams bowl eligible, 17 with five wins, 24 with four wins, 23 with three wins, 16 with 2 or 1 (Sam Houston won!)
10/30: 43 teams bowl eligible. 19 with five wins. 27 with four wins. 17 with three wins. 27 with 2, 1, or 0 (poor Sam Houston State).
10/23: 32 teams are already bowl eligible, 19 more have five wins, 29 have four wins. 24 more teams sit at 3 wins.
So with 13 spots left to fill, here is the schedule of the 25 teams with 5-6 records. It's sorted from the largest favorite to the biggest underdog. Please note that Navy is 5-5 and has a game this weekend before the Army-Navy game on Dec. 9. Army is 5-6, so at least one of those teams is assured of being 6-6. If Navy beats SMU and Army then beats Navy, they could both be eligible.
So there's your weekend cheat sheet. We need enough of those teams on the left side to lose so that there are fewer 6-6 teams taking bowl spots.
First of these opportunities is tonight, when 5-6 Eastern Michigan travels to 3-8 Buffalo for some Tuesday MACTION. Even at 3-8, Buffalo is a 5.5 point favorite, so GO BULLS.
Teams playing Friday: TCU, Nebraska, Central Michigan and Utah State
I'll try to update at some point on Friday or Saturday.
Week 1 (with more background): https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/bowl-chances-at-5-7.1123980/
Week 2: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-scenario-10-23.1134896/
Week 3: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-bowl-game-scenario-10-30.1146142/#post-21162683
Week 4: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-bowl-game-scenario-11-7.1160859/#post-21476009
Week 5: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/the-5-7-bowl-game-scenario-11-14.1176515/
Several changes to the APR table this week. Northwestern, Wisconsin and Boise State all earned their sixth win and bowl eligibility, so they are off the table below. Cincinnati lost again to fall to 3-8 and are thus eliminated from consideration.
| Apr Rank | School | W | L | Remaining Schedule | Projected wins | Proj Total |
| 9 | Minnesota | 5 | 6 | Wisconsin | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Wake Forest | 4 | 7 | Syracuse | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Rice | 5 | 6 | FAU | 1 | 6 |
| 21 | Mississippi State | 5 | 6 | Ole Miss | 0 | 5 |
Obviously the best path is to win Thursday and get that 6th win. As for our APR rank, we will be no worse than 4th but could end up first if we are indeed 5-7. Should Minnesota and Rice win, they come off the list, albeit while taking a bowl slot in the process. Wake is interesting. Syracuse is 5-6 and thus trying to get bowl eligible. Wake is 4-7 and trying to be the #1 or #2 APR team. Either way, the winner of that game is a higher priority than we will be assuming we lose. If 'Cuse wins they are 6-6 and Wake falls to 4-8. If Wake wins, they are 5-7 and can get in on APR while Syracuse is 5-7 and behind us in APR.
More attention this weekend will be on the 5 win teams. First, an update on the bowl games. Reminder, 41 bowl games, 82 slots.
11/21: 69 teams are now bowl eligible. 39 teams are at four or fewer wins. The only four win team we have to worry about is Wake Forest as noted above. There are 25 teams with five wins. Up to 13 of them will be playing in bowl games this season no matter if they are 6-6 or 5-7 (could be 12, depending on how many win and what Wake does against Syracuse).
11/14: 60 teams bowl eligible, 22 with five wins, 19 with 4 wins. Three are 22 teams with three wins, but they are all 3-7 and other than Cincinnati, cannot be bowl eligible nor ranked above us in the APR. So 21 of those are out of the running. There are 10 teams with 1 or 2 wins. They are also done. That leaves a pool of 102 teams to fill 82 slots.
11/7: 53 teams bowl eligible, 17 with five wins, 24 with four wins, 23 with three wins, 16 with 2 or 1 (Sam Houston won!)
10/30: 43 teams bowl eligible. 19 with five wins. 27 with four wins. 17 with three wins. 27 with 2, 1, or 0 (poor Sam Houston State).
10/23: 32 teams are already bowl eligible, 19 more have five wins, 29 have four wins. 24 more teams sit at 3 wins.
So with 13 spots left to fill, here is the schedule of the 25 teams with 5-6 records. It's sorted from the largest favorite to the biggest underdog. Please note that Navy is 5-5 and has a game this weekend before the Army-Navy game on Dec. 9. Army is 5-6, so at least one of those teams is assured of being 6-6. If Navy beats SMU and Army then beats Navy, they could both be eligible.
| The 5-7 Team | Line | Opponent |
| Northern Illinois | -19 | at Kent State |
| Central Florida(UCF) | -13.5 | Houston |
| Louisiana | -13 | ULM |
| Utah State | -8 | at New Mexico |
| Colorado State | -6 | at Hawaii |
| South Florida | -6 | Charlotte |
| Illinois | -5.5 | Northwestern |
| Rice | -5 | FAU |
| Old Dominion | -3 | Georgia State |
| Syracuse | -3 | Wake Forest |
| Virginia Tech | -3 | at Virginia |
| Nebraska | -2.5 | #20 Iowa |
| Marshall | -1.5 | Arkansas State |
| Minnesota | +2 | Wisconsin |
| Eastern Michigan | +5.5 | at Buffalo (today) |
| Florida | +6.5 | #5 Florida State |
| South Carolina | +7 | Clemson |
| California | +9 | at UCLA |
| Central Michigan | +10 | #23 Toledo |
| TCU | +10 | at #13 Oklahoma |
| Mississippi State | +10.5 | #12 Ole Miss |
| Washington State | +16.5 | at #4 Washington |
| BYU | +17 | at # 21 OK State |
| Navy | +20 | at SMU this week, Army (Dec 9) |
| Army West Point | no line yet | Navy (Dec 9) |
So there's your weekend cheat sheet. We need enough of those teams on the left side to lose so that there are fewer 6-6 teams taking bowl spots.
First of these opportunities is tonight, when 5-6 Eastern Michigan travels to 3-8 Buffalo for some Tuesday MACTION. Even at 3-8, Buffalo is a 5.5 point favorite, so GO BULLS.
Teams playing Friday: TCU, Nebraska, Central Michigan and Utah State
I'll try to update at some point on Friday or Saturday.
