The 5-7 scenario 10/23

[DawgatAuburn]

I'm curious enough to track who is in line for a bowl bid if they finish 5-7. Remember, it's based on APR. There are basically nine teams ahead of us.

First post was here: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/bowl-chances-at-5-7.1123980/

Here's the latest. Projections based on Warren Nolan, which may or may not be worth anything.

Apr Rank	School	W	L	Remaining Schedule	Projected wins	Proj Total
1	Northwestern	3	4	Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois	0	3
6	Cincinnati	2	5	Oklahoma State, UCF, Houston, West VA, Kansas	1	3
8	Minnesota	4	3	Mich State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin	3	7
8	Wake Forest	4	3	FSU, Duke, NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse	1	5
13	Boise State	3	4	Wyoming, Fresno St, New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force	3	6
15	Iowa State	4	3	Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Texas, Kansas State	2	6
15	Rice	4	3	Tulane, SMU, UTSA, Charlotte, FAU	2	6
19	Auburn	3	4	State, Vandy, Arkansas, New Mexico State, Bama	4	7
19	Boston College	4	3	UConn, Syracuse, Va Tech, Pitt, Miami	2	6
19	Mississippi State	4	3	Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Southern Miss, Ole Miss	1	5

Interestingly about us, before Saturday, we were projected to win 6 games. We went out and beat Arkansas, and now he has us at 5 wins. Other movers:

• Cincy lost and went from a projection of 5 down to 3.
• Minnesota beat Iowa and went from 6 to 7. With Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue the next three weeks, they could secure their 6th win.
• Iowa State didn't play and went from a projection of 5 to 6.
• Rice beat Tulsa and went from a projection of 4 up to a projection of 6.
• BC beat Ga Tech and went from 5 to 6.

This means that he now projects six of the teams in front of us to reach the requisite 6 win plateau, meaning we would be 4th in the APR. Neither Northwestern and Cincinnati are projected to get to 5, so they would be out. That leaves us behind only Wake Forest in that scenario.

I still think it would be interesting to see what we would choose to do if we were 5-7 and were extended a bowl bid.

• Decline and fire Arnett?
• Decline and keep Arnett?
• Accept and fire Arnett?
• Accept and keep Arnett?

 

[Dawgg]

If we get to a bowl, I don't think we're firing Arnett, at least not for 'on field performance'. The only way he gets fired after a bowl is if the AD can drum up some "locker room problems", "moral turpitude", or an academic cheating scandal to pin on him. Even then, they probably wouldn't pull the trigger without having a known quantity of some sort waiting in the wings (like Leach in 2020).

Also, accept the bowl bid. Always.

 

[Ibdancin]

I'm curious enough to track who is in line for a bowl bid if they finish 5-7. Remember, it's based on APR. There are basically nine teams ahead of us.

First post was here: https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/bowl-chances-at-5-7.1123980/

Here's the latest. Projections based on Warren Nolan, which may or may not be worth anything.

Apr Rank	School	W	L	Remaining Schedule	Projected wins	Proj Total
1	Northwestern	3	4	Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois	0	3
6	Cincinnati	2	5	Oklahoma State, UCF, Houston, West VA, Kansas	1	3
8	Minnesota	4	3	Mich State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin	3	7
8	Wake Forest	4	3	FSU, Duke, NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse	1	5
13	Boise State	3	4	Wyoming, Fresno St, New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force	3	6
15	Iowa State	4	3	Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Texas, Kansas State	2	6
15	Rice	4	3	Tulane, SMU, UTSA, Charlotte, FAU	2	6
19	Auburn	3	4	State, Vandy, Arkansas, New Mexico State, Bama	4	7
19	Boston College	4	3	UConn, Syracuse, Va Tech, Pitt, Miami	2	6
19	Mississippi State	4	3	Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Southern Miss, Ole Miss	1	5

Interestingly about us, before Saturday, we were projected to win 6 games. We went out and beat Arkansas, and now he has us at 5 wins. Other movers:

• Cincy lost and went from a projection of 5 down to 3.
• Minnesota beat Iowa and went from 6 to 7. With Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue the next three weeks, they could secure their 6th win.
• Iowa State didn't play and went from a projection of 5 to 6.
• Rice beat Tulsa and went from a projection of 4 up to a projection of 6.
• BC beat Ga Tech and went from 5 to 6.

This means that he now projects six of the teams in front of us to reach the requisite 6 win plateau, meaning we would be 4th in the APR. Neither Northwestern and Cincinnati are projected to get to 5, so they would be out. That leaves us behind only Wake Forest in that scenario.

I still think it would be interesting to see what we would choose to do if we were 5-7 and were extended a bowl bid.

• Decline and fire Arnett?
• Decline and keep Arnett?
• Accept and fire Arnett?
• Accept and keep Arnett?

What it should be is accept due to the SRs and GTRs that gave their all to MSU. Keep Arnett or not.... we should NOT. We are worth more. It's like I tell my kids, know your worth and demand it of yourself.

MSU is a great job. We are capable of paying up to 10 million per year for a staff. Then lets do it. Invest in MSU because we are worth it.

 

[dawgstudent]

You 100% go. Arnett factor shouldn't weigh in on the decision.

 

[00Dawg]

With these new projections, how many bowl slots will even be available to 5-7 teams?

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

It doesn't matter we have a 50/50 chance to beat the barn and will beat UK in starkvegas. Book your bowl plans now.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

If we get to a bowl, I don't think we're firing Arnett, at least not for 'on field performance'. The only way he gets fired after a bowl is if the AD can drum up some "locker room problems", "moral turpitude", or an academic cheating scandal to pin on him. Even then, they probably wouldn't pull the trigger without having a known quantity of some sort waiting in the wings (like Leach in 2020).

Also, accept the bowl bid. Always.

Barring some type of collapse, Arnett is not getting fired. The Ark win sealed his second season as long as we don't lose to USM or get humiliated by the barn AND UK.

We have a 50/50 chance against he barn and will beat UK at home. 6-6, he's coming back 100%.

 

[GloryDawg]

Barring some type of collapse, Arnett is not getting fired. The Ark win sealed his second season as long as we don't lose to USM or get humiliated by the barn AND UK.

We have a 50/50 chance against he barn and will beat UK at home. 6-6, he's coming back 100%.

I want to think that, and I am not saying you are wrong, but I also think he was a bridge hire just to get through signing season. The team would have enough talent to get to a bowl game the next season. Then leave it up to the next AD. It's not like he was given this super large contract that it takes a lot of money to buy him out. I am hoping Selmon takes a rational view at what has taken place and what he thinks can happen in the future with Arnett. Plus, Most AD's want their guys. I don't think he fired the baseball coach because he just arrived and probably didn't feel he should fire a guy who won a NC that soon after the new AD was hired.

I could be very wrong but it's not like we have not fired a guy after going to two bowl games.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

We're MSU. We aren't committed to having a legitimate football program. We'll keep these guys unless we lose to both USM and OM. The good ole boys get their access to everything at the expense of the program.

 

[Shmuley]

I say take it. We are 2 for 2 using substitute head coaches in bowl games.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

With these new projections, how many bowl slots will even be available to 5-7 teams?

Who knows. There are 41 bowl games, so 82 slots to fill.

32 teams are already bowl eligible, 19 more have five wins, 29 have four wins

So that's 80.

24 more teams sit at 3 wins.