Mississippi State Bulldogs
Killer Rating: 45.7 (the chance of an underdog defeating an opponent at least five seeds higher). All stats are updated through Tuesday.
Forget the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble; Mississippi State has been on its surface tension for more than a month. But let’s stop talking for a moment about whether the Bulldogs are going to make the big dance, and consider the havoc they could wreak if they get in. This is a team that looks like it was built to generate stat lines designed by our model: The Bulldogs’ intense defense forces steals on 13.6% of opponent possessions, the fifth-best rate in the country. That creates scoring chances in transition, but they keep their pace brutally slow (64.9 possessions per game, ranking 324th). And they make it a priority to hit the offensive glass (35.1 OR%, ranking 18th). It’s all a recipe for cooking up extra possessions in close games — exactly what you want from an underdog.
Now, converting those possessions into points is another matter. Mississippi State’s effective field-goal percentage is an abysmal 47.6%. In coach Chris Jans’ first year with the program, the Bulldogs have yet to show the willingness to take long-range shots or the ability to make them that his teams at New Mexico State demonstrated. In fact, the Bulldogs are dead last in the nation at hitting threes, connecting on just 27.3% of their bombs.
But that just adds to the hit-or-miss quality these Bulldogs have played with all season. This is a team that’s beaten Marquette, Texas A&M and TCU while losing to Drake, Georgia and Vanderbilt. They started the season 11-0, then lost eight of their next nine games, then won their next five in a row. And remember, inconsistency is a good quality for underdogs who have to win or go home. The more chaos a longshot generates, the better the chance that its best effort will be enough to defeat an objectively superior foe. And Mississippi State mucks things up as well as anybody.
(Last three sentences bolded by me - edited to add definition of Killer Rating)
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